Vanderbilt vs. Texas Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 10

Iain MacMillan | Oct 30, 2025

Diego Pavia and the Vanderbilt Commodores are road underdogs against Texas in Week 10 SEC action. / Steve Roberts-Imagn Images

Few people expected the Vanderbilt Commodores to be in contention for a spot in the College Football Playoff, but here they are in Week 10 as the No. 9-ranked team in the country and a 7-1 overall record.

They can keep the dream season alive when they take on the No. 20-ranked Texas Longhorns on Saturday, a team that has had a complete opposite 2025 campaign, failing to live up to their preseason expectations.

Let's dive into the odds and my best bet for this SEC showdown.

Vanderbilt vs. Texas Odds, Spread, and Total

Odds via Caesars Sportsbook

Spread

• Vanderbilt +2.5 (-110)
• Texas -2.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Vanderbilt +118
• Texas -140

Total

• OVER 44.5 (-110)
• UNDER 44.5 (-110)

Vanderbilt vs. Texas How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, Nov. 1
• Game Time: 12:00 pm ET
• Venue: DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): ABC
• Vanderbilt Record: 7-1 (3-1 in SEC)
• Texas Record: 6-2 (3-1 in SEC)

Vanderbilt vs. Texas Betting Trends

• Vanderbilt is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games
• Vanderbilt is 6-1 ATS in its last seven road games
• The UNDER in 8-2 in Vanderbilt's last 10 conference games
• Texas is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games
• The UNDER is 14-6 in Texas's last 20 games
• Texas has won six straight home games

Vanderbilt vs. Texas Key Player to Water

• Diego Pavia, QB - Vanderbilt Commodores

If you looked at this matchup on the calendar before the season began, there is no chance you thought that by the time Week 10 got here, Diego Pavia would be a legitimate Heisman Trophy candidate and Arch Manning would be completely out of the conversation, but that's where we're at. Pavia is listed at +950 at FanDuel, which is good for the fifth-best odds to win the award. He'll need a strong final stretch of the season to win it, but he's certainly in the mix.

Vanderbilt vs. Texas Prediction and Pick

Vanderbilt still isn't getting the respect it deserves. This Commodores team ranks 11th in the country in net success rate at +9.8%, which is well above Texas, which comes in at 79th in that state at just +0.7%. It's time for us as bettors to recognize this Longhorns team simply didn't turn out as advertised, and we should be betting on their games with that thought in mind.

Pick: Vanderbilt +118 via Caesars

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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You can check out all of Iain's bets here!