Vikings Win Total Projection for 2025 Season (Will Minnesota Regress?)

Sean Treppedi | Jul 11, 2025

Kevin O'Connell looks to build on his career-best 14-3 season with a rookie under center in 2025. / Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

The Vikings were one of the NFL’s biggest surprise storylines in 2024 as Sam Darnold led them to a 14-3 season.

But that merit was all but erased when the Vikings collapsed to the division-winning Lions in the final game of the season to lose the crown and were flattened by the Rams in the wild-card round.

There’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding Kevin O’Connell’s operation in 2025, so let’s dive into how oddsmakers are projecting them to compete in the NFL’s toughest division with a rookie quarterback. 

Minnesota Vikings 2025 Win Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

• Over 8.5 (-150)
• Under 8.5 (+125)

Vikings High Expectations Hinge on McCarthy’s Quick Adaption 

With Darnold having departed in free agency to Seattle, the Vikings are entrusting the franchise to J.J. McCarthy, their first‑round pick from 2024, who missed his entire rookie season due to a knee injury. It’s a bold move, but it’s what they wanted since drafting McCarthy in the first round: a team coming off their best regular season since 1998 relies on a quarterback with not one snap of pro experience. 

It all comes down to McCarthy’s transition amongst a division with four legitimate playoff teams. Aaron Rodgers waited around for the Vikings to sign him in what felt like an eternity, which would have been a plug-and-play transition for this offense. But the team passed because they are confident in McCarthy’s ability to take the reins. 

On other fronts, Minnesota didn’t stand still in the offseason — they fortified their defense heavily in free agency and drafted skill‑position talent to support McCarthy, translating to a win total projection of 8.5.

Let’s be honest, the Vikings were probably one of the luckiest teams in 2024 — they went 8‑1 in one‑score games, a trend that just can’t sustain itself. Complicating matters, Minnesota faces a brutal schedule, ranked in the top-five toughest agendas, with nine matchups against last year’s playoff teams and the third‑hardest set of opponent offenses by DVOA. 

Despite skepticism, there’s real confidence in the Over with FanDuel opening at -150 for Minnesota to hit nine or more wins. 

Even with assuming some regression from last season’s fortune, the roster — especially given the defensive upgrades — and a well‑respected coaching staff should be able to at least hang in this tough division.

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