Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Best Bets for Paul Skenes vs. Logan Gilbert Showdown)

Jennifer Piacenti | Aug 16, 2024

Aug 10, 2024; Los Angeles, California, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Paul Skenes (30) pitches during the second inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kiyoshi Mio-USA TODAY Sports / Kiyoshi Mio-USA TODAY Sports

Let’s head into the weekend with some winning Walk-Off Wagers!  We cashed both of our wagers yesterday as well as both of our Painting Corners player props, completing the sweep.   Three of those four bets cashed in plus money.

Let’s see if we can keep it rolling!  All odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. 

Best MLB Bets for Friday, August 16th

• Nationals vs. Phillies OVER 9 (-120)
• Pirates vs. Mariners Neither Team Scores 5 Runs (+100)
• Pirates vs. Mariners Neither Team Scores 4 Runs (+210)

Nationals at Phillies OVER 9 (-120) 

Happy Patrick Corbin Day to those who celebrate!

If you’ve followed our advice over the last two years, you know we love to target hitters vs. Corbin.   Tonight we have the perfect storm for plenty of runs to be scored off the lefty starter. 

Not only is Corbin allowing 1.31 home runs per nine innings this season (16th-most in MLB), his hard-hit rate, xERA, xSLG are all in the bottom 3% of the league.

It gets better, though.  

His ERA this season is 6.68 when away and his ERA since the All Star Break is 7.62. He allowed a .342 batting average and four earned runs in his only start vs. Philadelphia this season.

The Phillies crush lefty pitching. They lead the league with a .342 OBP and .796 OPS and their .272 batting average and .452 SLG rank second. 

The Phillies walloped yesterday’s lefty, Mitchell Parker,  13-3

So, yes. We are in on the Phillies. 

Aaron Nola has been shaky since the All-Star Break, and he is also prone to give up the long ball.  The Phillies bullpen has an ERA of 4.68 this month.

Games at Citizens Bank Park are averaging 9.33 runs this season, and 10.67 runs per game since the All Star Break. 

Mariners at Pirates Best Bets

Neither team to Score 5 Runs (+100)

Neither Team to Score 4 Runs (+210)

The Mariners have scored the fourth-fewest runs per game this season (3.94) and the Pirates have been slumping in August with just 3.75.

Two aces take the mound tonight in Paul Skenes and Logan Gilbert.

I don’t have to tell you much about Skenes, by now you’ve heard it all. Today is a great bounce-back spot for Skenes who earned four earned runs to the Dodgers in his last outing, “ballooning” his ERA to 2.25.  No team has a higher K-rate than the Mariners’ ridiculous 30%. 

Gilbert has been solid all season with a 2.98 ERA and just a 4% walk rate. The Pirates have the third-highest K-rate in the league.

Both bullpens have been too shaky this month to take the under which is juiced at -120. Instead, I’m trusting neither pitching staff will allow the other team five runs or more for plus money.   Both starters should be able to go deep enough into this game that neither team to score four runs is also attractive.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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