Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Predictions for Cubs-Brewers, Yankees-Blue Jays, Dodgers-Phillies)

Breaking down the best bets on the diamond as the MLB playoffs continue on Saturday, October 4.

Cristopher Sanchez gets the start for the Phillies against the Dodgers in Game 1 of the NLDS. / Kyle Ross-Imagn Images

The MLB playoffs continue on Saturday as the Division Series get underway.

The Chicago Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers start things off in the afternoon, with the Seattle Mariners hosting the Detroit Tigers to close out the slate. In between are perhaps the two best series, with the New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays and Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies.

My best bets for today lean toward home teams dominating in Game 1.

Let’s get right into the best bets – and their odds at the best betting sites – for Saturday, Oct. 4.

MLB Best Bets for Saturday, Oct. 4

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

• Cubs Team Total UNDER 3.5 (-140) at Milwaukee Brewers
• Toronto Blue Jays Moneyline (-126) vs. New York Yankees
• Philadelphia Phillies Moneyline (-123) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

Cubs Team Total UNDER 3.5 (-140) at Milwaukee Brewers

I broke down this best bet in the Cubs vs. Brewers betting preview:

The Cubs scored just six runs in their three-game series against the Padres. They won Games 1 and 3 3-1 and were shut out in Game 2 by Dylan Cease and the San Diego bullpen.

Milwaukee is able to start its ace in Game 1 and also have a fully-rested bullpen. That’s one of the best bullpens in the league, mind you, with a 3.63 ERA in the regular season. They’re headlined by Abner Uribe (1.67 ERA in 75.1 IP), Trevor Megill (2.49 in 47), and southpaw Jared Koenig (2.86 in 66), who should all be ready for action on Saturday afternoon.

Freddy Peralta allowed two runs or fewer in 24 of 33 starts this season, including nine shutout appearances and 10 times when he allowed just one run. That’s one run or fewer in 19 of 33 starts.

The Cubs may be able to squeak out a win, but it won’t be by putting runs on the board. It’d have to be a low-scoring game, and I’m seeing them held to three runs or fewer yet again this postseason.

Rather than taking the Brewers to win at -157, I’ll get a better price fading Chicago’s bats.

Toronto Blue Jays Moneyline (-126) vs. New York Yankees

I broke down this best bet in the Yankees vs. Blue Jays betting preview:

The Blue Jays were one of the best home teams in baseball this season, and that is going to be huge in this five-game series. Toronto led the American League with 54 home wins, trailing only the Philadelphia Phillies across Major League Baseball.

The Yankees were fine on the road, going 44-37, but struggled in Toronto in particular. The Jays swept the Yanks in a four-game series back at the start of July, and took two of three at Rogers Center later that month. 

New York has yet to name a starting pitcher as of Friday afternoon, and its options aren’t that great. Max Fried and Carlos Rodon will be ready for Games 2 and 3, but the Yankees will have to choose from the likes of Luis Gil or Clarke Schmidt to open the series.

On the other side, the Blue Jays are giving the ball to Kevin Gausman. Gausman was 10-11 this season, but posted a strong 3.59 ERA. 

This will be Gausman’s fifth start against the Yankees this season. He got chased early at Yankee Stadium back in April, but allowed a total of four runs across 20 innings in his other three matchups, with the Blue Jays going 3-0 in those games.

The Yankees may ultimately take the series, but the Blue Jays are worth a bet as home favorites in Game 1.

Philadelphia Phillies Moneyline (-123) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

I broke down this best bet in the Dodgers vs. Phillies betting preview:

With all due respect to the Milwaukee Brewers, the winner of this series is going to be the heavy favorite to make it to the World Series out of the National League. The Phillies were three games better than the Dodgers, earning them the bye and home-field advantage, and that is key in the postseason.

Both of these teams were much better at home than they were on the road in the regular season. They each went 41-40 on the road, with Philly 55-26 at home and LA 52-29 at Dodger Stadium.

Sanchez being a southpaw also benefits the Phillies. While the Dodgers crushed right-handed starters for a 68-46 record, they were barely over .500 at 25-23 against southpaws. The same goes for the Phillies, who were an impressive 73-41 against RHP and 23-25 vs. LHP.

Ohtani no-hit the Phillies for five innings in his penultimate start of the season, before the bullpen let the Phils score nine in a 9-6 victory. Philadelphia knows it needs to work the count against Ohtani and make him throw pitches to get into the LA bullpen early. 

The difference in this game could very well come down to the bullpens. Shohei Ohtani maxed out at six innings in the regular season and only threw more than 90 pitches once. That came in his final start of the year. 

I think the Phillies will be able to get Ohtani out of the game after about six innings and do work against the bullpen to take Game 1 at home.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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