Yankees vs. Blue Jays Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for ALDS Game 1

Kevin Gausman gets the ball for the Blue Jays in Game 1 of the ALDS against the Yankees.

Kevin Gausman gets the ball for the Blue Jays in Game 1 of the ALDS against the Yankees. / Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

The New York Yankees got past the Boston Red Sox in the Wild Card Round and now face off against another AL East rival, the Toronto Blue Jays, in the ALDS.

The Yankees and Blue Jays finished the regular season with the same record, but Toronto’s 8-5 record in head-to-heat meetings gave them the division crown.

Can New York keep the momentum going, or will Toronto take control at home?

Here are the odds, probable pitchers, and predictions for Yankees vs. Blue Jays on Saturday afternoon.

Yankees vs. Blue Jays Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

• Yankees +1.5 (-207)
• Blue Jays -1.5 (+168)

Moneyline

• Yankees +104
• Blue Jays -126

Total

• 7.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Yankees vs. Blue Jays Probable Pitchers

• Yankees: TBA
• Blue Jays: Kevin Gausman (10-11, 3.59 ERA)

Yankees vs. Blue Jays How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, October 4
• Time: 4:08 p.m. ET
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• How to Watch (TV): FOX
• Yankees record: 94-68 (2-1)
• Blue Jays record: 94-68 (0-0)

Yankees vs. Blue Jays Best MLB Prop Bets

Blue Jays Best MLB Prop Bet

• Kevin Gausman UNDER 6.5 Strikeouts (-131)

Gausman led the league with a career-high 237 strikeouts in the 2023 season, but he hasn’t been able to reach that level since. He had just 162 strikeouts in 181 innings last season, and got up to 189 punchouts in 193 innings in the regular season.

The veteran righthander had six or fewer strikeouts in 19 of his 32 starts in the regular season. That includes three of his four starts against the Yankees. Even when he pitched eight one-run innings last month, he only had five strikeouts at Yankee Stadium.

The Blue Jays will have a fully-rested bullpen after nearly a week off, so Gausman could also run the risk of getting pulled early if he gets into trouble. While I don’t expect that to happen, and think Gausman should be able to get a handful of strikeouts, this line is set a strikeout or two too high.

Yankees vs. Blue Jays Prediction and Pick

The Blue Jays were one of the best home teams in baseball this season, and that is going to be huge in this five-game series. Toronto led the American League with 54 home wins this season, trailing only the Philadelphia Phillies across Major League Baseball.

The Yankees were fine on the road, going 44-37, but struggled in Toronto in particular. The Jays swept the Yanks in a four-game series back at the start of July, and took two of three at Rogers Center later that month. 

New York has yet to name a starting pitcher as of Friday afternoon, and its options aren’t that great. Max Fried and Carlos Rodon will be ready for Games 2 and 3, but the Yankees will have to choose from the likes of Luis Gil or Clarke Schmidt to open the series.

On the other side, the Blue Jays are giving the ball to Kevin Gausman. Gausman was 10-11 this season, but posted a strong 3.59 ERA. 

This will be Gausman’s fifth start against the Yankees this season. He got chased early at Yankee Stadium back in April, but allowed a total of four runs across 20 innings in his other three matchups, with the Blue Jays going 3-0 in those games.

The Yankees may ultimately take the series, but the Blue Jays are worth a bet as home favorites in Game 1.

Pick: Blue Jays Moneyline (-126)

---

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Register with DraftKings today and get $200 in bonus bets instantly if you win your first bet. Claim this DraftKings Sportsbook promo code offer by making a $5 deposit, applying your bonus token, and winning your first $5 wager.