Warriors vs. Heat Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Wednesday, Nov. 19

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Golden State Warriors-Miami Heat matchup on Wednesday night.

The Miami Heat and head coach Erik Spoelstra are favored on Wednesday. / Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Erik Spoelstra’s Miami Heat keep finding ways to win, knocking off the New York Knicks on Monday night even with Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo out of the lineup.

Adebayo is listed as questionable while Herro is still out for Wednesday’s matchup with Steph Curry and the Golden State Warriors, who are playing the second night of a back-to-back after losing against the Orlando Magic on Tuesday.

A veteran team, Golden State could consider sitting some players in this game, so bettors will want to monitor the injury report for them ahead of tip off on Wednesday.

Golden State is off to a 9-7 and it's started to turn things around on the road, winning three of its last four games, despite Tuesday’s loss.  

Can the Warriors hold off a Miami team that is now 6-1 against the spread at Kaseya Center this season?

Let’s dive into the odds, my favorite player prop and a prediction for Wednesday night’s matchup. 

Warriors vs. Heat Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Warriors +6.5 (-112)
• Heat -6.5 (-108)

Moneyline

• Warriors: +195
• Heat: -238

Total

• 234.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Warriors vs. Heat How to Watch 

• Date: Wednesday, Nov. 19
• Time: 7:30 p.m. EST
• Venue: Kaseya Center
• How to Watch (TV): FanDuel Sports Network (Local), NBC Sports Bay Area
• Warriors record: 9-7
• Heat record: 8-6

Warriors vs. Heat Injury Reports

Warriors Injury Report

• Not submitted yet

Heat Injury Report

• Bam Adebayo – questionable
• Tyler Herro – out
• Myron Gardner – out
• Kasparas Jakucionis – out
• Terry Rozier – out
• Dru Smith – available

Warriors vs. Heat Best NBA Prop Bet

Heat Best NBA Prop Bet

• Bam Adebayo 18+ Points (-161)

I'm moving Bam's points prop down just a bit, as there's a chance he is on a little bit of a minutes restriction after missing the last six games. Still, I think he's worth a bet as a scorer given his volume in the 2025-26 season.

Adebayo is averaging 19.9 points per game (over this number by a decent amount) while taking the most shots per game (15.5) of his NBA career. Tyler Herro (foot/ankle) remains out, so Bam should operate as one of the focal points of Miami's attack on Wednesday.

Plus, Golden State has struggled defending the painted area this season, ranking 19th in the league in opponent points in the paint per game. While Bam hasn't been super efficient in the 2025-26 campaign (shooting just 45.2 percent from the field), he has scored 19 or more points in five of the seven games that he finished (he played just a handful of minutes against Denver when he was hurt).

Warriors vs. Heat Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why the Warriors’ offense could have a rough night in Miami: 

After playing the Orlando Magic (and losing) on Tuesday night, the Golden State Warriors have a tough back-to-back against the Miami Heat. 

And, it appears that both Jimmy Butler and Steph Curry could miss this game. 

Steph Curry tweaked his right ankle in the second Spurs game and again in the first half tonight. He said he will see how it responds after flight/sleep, but seems very iffy for the Heat game in Miami tomorrow night. pic.twitter.com/82dnwgr03q

— Anthony Slater (@anthonyVslater) November 19, 2025

Jimmy Butler when asked if he’s playing in Miami tomorrow night: “Who knows? We’ll see how we feel when we wake up.”

On his fourth quarter jostling with Jalen Suggs: “Y’all done?” pic.twitter.com/Xul2tlADer

— Anthony Slater (@anthonyVslater) November 19, 2025

Curry scored 34 points in 34 minutes and Butler scored 33 points in 38 minutes on Tuesday, but it wasn’t enough for Golden State to get a win. The bench struggled for the Warriors, going just 7-for-22 from the field. 

Now, Golden State could be without its two best offensive players – and Jonathan Kuminga, who did not play last night – on the second night of a back-to-back in Miami.

The Heat play at the fastest pace in the NBA, but the Warriors may not have the firepower to score over 113.5 points, especially since they average just 115.5 per game this season, which is 21st in the NBA.

Since I’m leaning with Curry and Butler sitting this game out, I’ll gladly take the UNDER on the Warriors’ team total on Wednesday night. 

Pick: Warriors UNDER 113.5 (-108 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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