Warriors vs. Rockets Playoff Odds: Series Prediction, Odds, Analysis and Best Bet

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Golden State Warriors-Houston Rockets series in the first round of the NBA playoffs.

The Warriors are favored to make the second round. / Cary Edmondson-Imagn Images

It wasn’t pretty, but the Golden State Warriors advanced through the play-in tournament on Tuesday night, setting up a first-round playoff series with the Houston Rockets.

Houston, the No. 2 seed, locked up Steph Curry in a game towards the end of the regular season, and it has a scrappy young team that may be undervalued a bit in this series. Why do I say that?

Well, oddsmakers have set the Rockets as +165 underdogs in this series despite them having home court. 

Yes, Golden State has the playoff experience of Curry, Draymond Green and Jimmy Butler (who was magnificent in the play-in tournament against Memphis), but this Rockets team has outperformed expectations all season long.

Not only did Houston earn the No. 2 seed in the West – smashing its preseason win total projection – but Ime Udoka’s club finished seventh in net rating and fifth in defensive rating in the regular season.

There is some bad blood here, as Dillon Brooks has plenty of playoff clashes with Golden State from his time with Memphis and Fred VanVleet knocked off Curry and the Warriors in the 2019 NBA Finals as a member of the Toronto Raptors. 

Butler and Curry are two of the best playoff performers of their generation, but this Warriors team isn’t nearly as deep or athletic as this young Houston bunch. That should make for a fun series, especially since Golden State took three of the five meetings between these squads in the regular season.

Here’s a complete breakdown of the series odds, trends to watch and my predictions for who will advance out of this Western Conference showdown. 

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Warriors vs. Rockets Series Odds

• Warriors: -200
• Rockets: +165

Warriors vs. Rockets Correct Score Odds

• Warriors in 6: +280
• Rockets in 7: +475
• Warriors in 5: +475
• Warriors in 7: +550
• Warriors in 4: +650
• Rockets in 6: +900
• Rockets in 5: +900
• Rockets in 4: +1900

Warriors vs. Rockets Trends to Watch

Golden State Warriors

Golden State dropped three of its final five games to fall into the play-in tournament mix, but the Warriors will still get plenty of time off before facing Houston in a Game 1 on Sunday. 

Since adding Butler ahead of the trade deadline, the Warriors are 23-7 when he plays – one of the best marks in the NBA. Post All-Star break, Golden State went 20-7 and posted the third-best net rating in the NBA. 

It only played Houston twice after the Butler trade, splitting those matchups. 

There is the “Playoff Jimmy” and Curry factor that is hard to measure, but impossible not to mention. These guys have carried teams to NBA Finals appearances before, and they showed against Memphis, combining for 75 points, that they’re going to be a terror to deal with in the playoffs. 

The biggest thing to watch for Golden State is where the other scoring comes from. Steve Kerr has benched Jonathan Kuminga in the last two games, and it appears that the former lottery pick isn’t in the plans as a rotation piece – barring a change – going forward. 

Outside of Curry and Butler, the Warriors’ secondary scorers are very volatile on a night-to-night basis. That could be an issue against an elite defensive team like Houston. 

When it comes to game-to-game trends, Golden State was 10-6 against the spread as a road underdog this season. If the Rockets open as favorites in Game 1 or Game 2, Golden State could be an intriguing bet – especially since oddsmakers seem to think the Warriors will win this series in six games (based on the odds).  

Houston Rockets

After a slow start out of the All-Star break, the Rockets put together a lengthy winning streak and ended up 18-9 in their 27 games out of the break – playing well enough to finish with the eighth-best net rating in the league during that stretch.

Houston is an elite defensive team with players like Brooks, Amen Thompson, Tari Eason and others that can make life tough for Butler and Curry on the offensive end. Curry scored just three points in the final meeting of the regular season between these teams.

However, Houston’s offense is a bit concerning. 

During clutch time (defined by a game within five points in the final five minutes), the Rockets have the worst field goal percentage in the NBA (38.1 percent). Unlike the Warriors, Houston lacks a true No. 1 scoring option, although Alperen Sengun and Jalen Green have shown that they can carry the load at times. 

Houston’s offense finished 12th in offensive rating and just 23rd in effective field goal percentage during the regular season. While the Rockets can defend with any team in the league, can they get buckets when they need it most in hostile environments? 

For game-to-game trends, Houston was solid as a road underdog in the regular season, going 10-8-1 against the spread. It was one of 10 teams to cover in 53 percent or more of its games in the 2024-25 regular season. 

Warriors vs. Rockets Series Prediction and Pick

This series is going to be a dogfight. 

Golden State has the top-line talent advantage with Curry and Butler, but Houston can really rough both of these veterans up. For the Rockets, avoiding games where they are behind late is a major key. 

Houston actually had one of the 10-best clutch records in the NBA this season, but the offensive numbers are extremely concerning. For Houston, the number to know is 110:

Golden State was an insane 39-12 in the 51 games that it reached 110 points. If the Rockets, who held Golden State under that number four times in five regular-season meetings, can keep Golden State’s offense in check, they may have a chance to pull off the upset in this series. 

I think that oddsmakers are being a little disrespectful to what Houston has done, and Ime Udoka’s coaching experience, with the odds for this series. Golden State having better odds to win in five than nearly every other outcome is a bit too much for my liking.

That being said, I think this Houston team is a piece – and a season – away from contention. Down the stretch of games, I keep wondering what the Rockets will do offensively in the half court, and if they’ll get enough scoring to hold off Curry and Butler.

Ultimately, I’m going to side with the two players who have been there many times before. Golden State takes this series, but it’s going to go the distance. 

Pick: Warriors to win the series, Warriors in 7 (+550 at DraftKings)

---

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

---

Are you new to DraftKings? Sign up today and place a $5 bet to earn a guaranteed $150 in bonus bets. Win or lose, DraftKings will issue six $25 bonus bets instantly.