Will Cal Raleigh Break Aaron Judge's Home Run Record: Odds and Prediction

Iain MacMillan | Aug 13, 2025

Cal Raleigh is chasing Aaron Judge's home run record this season. / Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images

One of the best storylines in baseball this season has been Cal Raleigh, the catcher for the Seattle Mariners. He has been a great offensive player over the past two years, but his numbers have exploded in 2025. As of writing this article, he's leading all of baseball in home runs with 45.

As we enter the final month and a half of the season, it's time to see if he has a chance to break Aaron Judge's American League home run record, which sits at 62 and was set just three years ago in 2022. Raleigh would have to record 18 home runs in the Mariners' final 42 games.

Can he get it done? The oddsmakers at FanDuel Sportsbook have set the market.

Cal Raleigh Home Run Record Odds

• Yes +650

FanDuel has his odds of breaking the record set at +650, which is an implied probability of 13.33%.

Raleigh's numbers have slowed down since the All-Star Break. He hit 38 home runs in his first 94 games, which averages out to 0.4 home runs per game. Since the pause in play, he has recorded just seven home runs in 23 games, an average of 0.3 home runs per game.

Raleigh will need to find that midseason magic if he wants to make a run at this record. I don't think he can get it done, but if you have faith, place your bet at +650 odds before it's too late.

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