Wisconsin vs. Michigan State Prediction, Odds and Best Prop Bets for Big Ten Tournament Semifinal

Iain MacMillan | Mar 14, 2025

Michigan State is a small favorite against Wisconsin in the Big Ten semifinal. / Dale Young-Imagn Images

We're down to the final four teams in the Big Ten conference tournament. The first of two semifinals on Saturday will feature a classic duel between the Wisconsin Badgers and Michigan State Spartans.

These teams faced off just two weeks ago on March 2, with the Badgers securing a 71-62 victory. Now, the regular season champions will try to keep their momentum going en route to a berth in the tournament final.

Let's dive into the odds, key players, and my best bet for this semifinal showdown.

Wisconsin vs. Michigan State Odds, Spread, and Total

Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook

Spread

• Wisconsin +2.5 (-110)
• Michigan State -2.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Wisconsin +118
• Michigan State -145

Total

• OVER 144.5 (-115)
• UNDER 144.5 (-105)

Wisconsin vs. Michigan State How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, March 15
• Game Time: 1:00 PM EST
• Venue: Gainbridge Fieldhouse
• How to Watch (TV): CBS/Paramount+
• Wisconsin Record: 25-8 (13-7 Conference)
• Michigan State Record: 27-5 (17-3 Conference)

Wisconsin vs. Michigan State Key Players to Watch in Prop Market

Wisconsin

John Tonje: Wisconsin's leading scorer, had one of his worst games of the season when the Baders faced the Spartans. He shot just 3-of-13 from the field and was largely shut down by the Michigan State defense. He'll need to step up in a big way if he wants to give the Badgers a chance to win this game.

Michigan State

Jeremy Fears Jr.: The Michigan State guard leads the team in assists and has been a huge distributor of the ball in recent games, averaging 5.5 assists per game this season, including teaching 5+ in three of their last four games. If you're looking for a prop bet, consider the OVER on his assists total.

Wisconsin vs. Michigan State Prediction and Pick

The most important factor in this game is going to be the perimeter defense of Michigan State. Wisconsin ranks 24th in the country in three-point shot rate, with 47.4% of its shots coming from beyond the arc. The Badgers will have to find a way to figure out the puzzle that is the Spartans' perimeter defense which ranks third in the country in opponent three-point field goal percentage, keeping teams to shooting just 28.0% from beyond the arc.

The Wisconsin perimeter offense against the Michigan State perimeter defense proved to be the key factor in their regular season matchup just two weeks ago. The Badgers were held to shooting just 15.6% from beyond the arc in that game, leading to Michigan State's win.

This is a tough matchup for the Badgers from a stylistic perspective and I expect another win and cover by the Spartans.

Pick: Michigan State -2.5 (-110) via BetMGM

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