Peter's Points: WNBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Wings vs. Mercury, Tiffany Hayes)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the WNBA action on Monday, July 7.

Golden State Valkyries guard Tiffany Hayes is an interesting prop target on Monday. / Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

No. 1 overall pick Paige Bueckers is in action on Monday night in the WNBA, as the Dallas Wings take on the Phoenix Mercury as part of a two-game slate.

The Golden State Valkyries will open Monday’s action against the Atlanta Dream, and both of those teams are overachieving expectations to this point in the 2025 campaign. Atlanta is looking to remain in a top spot in the standings while the Valkyries (9-8) are hoping to remain over .500.

There are a few injuries to watch on Monday, especially in the Wings-Mercury clash. DiJonai Carrington and Arike Ogunbowale will sit out for Dallas while the Mercury are down two All-Star caliber players in Satou Sabally and Kahleah Copper.

Does that give the Wings a slight edge as road underdogs? Dallas did knock off the Mercury by nine on July 3, but can it duplicate that performance on the road?

I have a side that I’m betting on in that matchup as well as my favorite player prop to watch, which is for a Valkyries guard on Monday night.

Let’s break down each of these picks for the WNBA action on July 7! 

WNBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2025 season record: 25-36 (-6.05 units)
• OVERALL (since 2024 season): 109-110 (-1.59 units)

Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

WNBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Dallas Wings +6 (-110) vs. Phoenix Mercury
• Tiffany Hayes UNDER 15.5 Points (-125)

Dallas Wings +6 (-110) vs. Phoenix Mercury

The Wings have the third-worst record in the WNBA, but they’ve won back-to-back games against the Washington Mystics and the Mercury to leapfrog the Chicago Sky in the standings.

Dallas played well offensively against Phoenix on July 3, scoring 98 points despite Ogunbowale, Carrington and Maddy Siegrist all being out of the lineup. 

Rookies Aziaha James and Bueckers combined for 51 points in the win. 

What’s notable about that matchup is that the Mercury had Alyssa Thomas, Sabally and Copper all in action. Now, Phoenix will be without two of its All-Stars at home in Monday’s contest. I’m not sold on the Mercury being heavily favored in this game without them.

Phoenix has an impressive record at 12-6, but it has dropped back-to-back games and ranks fifth in the W in offensive, defensive and net rating. Dallas doesn’t defend well (10th in defensive rating), but it does have a top-seven offense this season.

With the Mercury down their two best scorers on Monday, I’ll take the points with the Wings. 

Tiffany Hayes UNDER 15.5 Points (-125)

Veteran guard Tiffany Hayes is having a great season for Golden State, averaging 14.0 points, 3.7 rebounds and 2.7 assists per game while shooting 43.4 percent from the field and 41.9 percent from 3-point range. 

However, I think this prop has gotten a little out of hand for the former UConn star.

Hayes has just three games all season long where she’s scored 16 or more points, and two of them happen to be her last two matchups. She shot 8-for-13 and 8-for-11 from the field in those games, an efficiency that isn’t easy to duplicate night after night. 

Over the two-game stretch, Hayes is shooting 66.7 percent from the field, over 23 percent better than her season-long average. On top of that, her usage isn’t really increasing from a shot volume perspective.

Hayes took 16 shots in the season opener, but she has not taken more than 13 in any other game, averaging 10.6 field goal attempts per game overall. 

While I think the star guard can still be in the mix to hit her season average, I’ll bet one some regression against an Atlanta team that is elite at home and plays at one of the slowest paces in the WNBA.

---

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Are you new to DraftKings? Sign up today and place a $5 bet to earn $150 in bonus bets. Regardless of the outcome of your wager, DraftKings will add six $25 bonus bet tokens to your new account instantly.