Peter's Points: WNBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Liberty, Fever, Mystics-Storm, Kelsey Plum)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the WNBA action on Sunday, July 13.

Los Angeles Sparks guard Kelsey Plum is a solid prop target on Sunday. / Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

Sunday’s WNBA action kicks off with a matchup between the last two No. 1 overall picks, as Paige Bueckers and the Dallas Wings hit the road to play Caitlin Clark and the Indiana Fever.

That matchup is one of four on a loaded Sunday slate, as two of the top teams in the East – Atlanta and New York – also face off in the afternoon before a couple of interconference battles wrap up the night. 

As the WNBA nears the All-Star break, eight teams are between three and 7.5 games back of the top-seeded Minnesota Lynx, which should make for an interesting push in the second half for playoff spots.

Many of those teams (New York, Atlanta, Seattle, Indiana, Washington) are all in action on Sunday. Can they improve on their spot in the standings in today’s contests? 

Here’s a look at my favorite bets for this four-game slate in the W. 

WNBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2025 season record: 28-40 (-6.29 units)
• OVERALL (since 2024 season): 112-114 (-1.82 units)

Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

WNBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• New York Liberty-Indiana Fever Moneyline Parlay (-127)
• Kelsey Plum OVER 18.5 Points (-130)
• Washington Mystics Team Total UNDER 77.5 Points (-120)

New York Liberty-Indiana Fever Moneyline Parlay (-127)

New York Liberty

The Liberty are 1-1 against the Dream so far this season, but they did pick up a five-point win at home. 

Both of these teams have thrived at home this season (New York is 8-2), and Atlanta has struggled a bit on the road (4-5) despite a solid record overall.

With Natasha Cloud and Isabelle Harrison expected to play in this matchup, I like New York’s chances of adding to that home record. So far this season, the Liberty have a net rating of +15.5 at home – the second-best mark in the W, while the Dream are -0.6 on the road. 

Atlanta has also come back to earth a little bit against the spread, falling to 11-9 ATS this season. I still would rather back the Liberty to win outright, as they’ve been well under .500 against the spread for most of the season.

New York enters this matchup as the No. 2 team in the W in offensive, defensive and net rating while the Dream are third in offense but eighth in defense. I think that comes back to bite them on the road  at Barclays Center, where the Liberty have been dominant in recent seasons. 

Indiana Fever

While I’m not totally sold on laying the 10 points with the Fever in this game, I do think they’re going to beat a Dallas team that has been downright awful on the road this season (2-9 straight up) and is just 9-12 against the spread overall. 

The Fever lost badly to the Golden State Valkyries in Clark’s first game back in action from a groin injury, but they then blew out the Atlanta Dream (at home) to move back to 10-10 in the 2025 season.

While Dallas has a net rating that is a little better than its record indicates, the Wings simply aren’t that great, ranking in the bottom five in the W in defensive rating and just seventh in offensive rating.

The Wings also lost by eight at home to the Fever without Clark back on June 27. This should be an easy win for Indiana to cap the second leg of our parlay. 

Kelsey Plum OVER 18.5 Points (-130)

Los Angeles Sparks guard Kelsey Plum is averaging 19.9 points per game while shooting 34.6 percent from beyond the arc in the 2025 season.

Plum has a great matchup on Sunday, as the Sparks are double-digit favorites at home against a Connecticut Sun team that has just three wins this season and ranks dead last in the WNBA in offensive, defensive and net rating. 

The defense is where I want to focus, as the Sun are allowing 87.9 points per game, which should set up well for Plum to clear her points prop – which is set below her season average on Sunday.

The Sparks star has taken a ton of shots this season, but she’s coming off a game where she needed just seven shot attempts to score 17 points and dish out 12 assists. I think she’ll be able to get whatever she wants scoring the ball on Sunday, as CT has routinely allowed high-scoring games this season.

Since Los Angeles is just 1-8 straight up at home, I also wouldn’t be shocked if this game is closer than the spread suggests, which should mean a pretty normal role minutes (and shots) wise for Plum. 

Washington Mystics Team Total UNDER 77.5 Points (-120)

The Washington Mystics have won six of their last 10 games to put themselves in the playoff race in the WNBA, but I’m fading them against the Seattle Storm defense on Sunday.

There are a bunch of stats that line up well for a low-scoring game in this matchup, but I’m eyeing just the Mystics team total for my best bet.

This season, here’s how these teams stack up when it comes to some key scoring numbers: 

• Washington is 12th out of 13 teams in offensive rating
• Washington is 11th out of 13 teams in effective field goal percentage
• Washington is 12th out of 13 teams in points per game (78.6)
• Seattle is third in the WNBA in opponent points per game (79.2)
• Seattle is ninth out of 13 teams in the WNBA in pace
• Seattle is seventh in defensive rating

The Storm slow games down quite often, and they should be able to limit a Washington team that has struggled overall scoring the ball this season.

The Mystics have finished with fewer than 78 points in four of their last six games, and I expect them to come up short again with the total set at 160 for Sunday night’s matchup.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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