Yankees vs. Mariners Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Monday, May 12

The Yankees are favored in their series opener with the Mariners.

New York Yankees right fielder Aaron Judge is an elite prop target on Monday. / Cary Edmondson-Imagn Images

The New York Yankees and Seattle Mariners open a three-game set on Monday night in Seattle, and New York is set as a slight favorite.

Clarke Schmidt will make his fifth start of the season for the Yankees, and New York has thrived in his outings, going 3-1 despite his ERA sitting at 4.79.

Meanwhile, the Mariners have Emerson Hancock (5.70 ERA) on the bump in this game as they look to build their lead in the AL West.

Both of these squads are in first place in their respective divisions, but who should we bet on to get the win in this series opener?

I have a pick for that, and a player prop for Aaron Judge, in Monday’s contest. 

Yankees vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Run Line

• Yankees -1.5 (+114)
• Mariners +1.5 (-135)

Moneyline

• Yankees: -148
• Mariners: +124

Total

• 8 (Over -112/Under -108)

Yankees vs. Mariners Probable Pitchers

• New York: Clarke Schmidt (0-1, 4.79 ERA)
• Seattle: Emerson Hancock (1-1, 5.70 ERA)

Yankees vs. Mariners How to Watch

• Date: Monday, May 12
• Time: 9:40 p.m. EST
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• How to Watch (TV): ROOT Sports NW, YES Network
• Yankees record: 23-17
• Mariners record: 22-17

Yankees vs. Mariners Best MLB Prop Bets

Yankees Best MLB Prop Bet

• Aaron Judge OVER 1.5 Total Bases (-135)

This season, Aaron Judge is hitting an insane .409 for the Yankees, and he’s coming off a three-game series with the A’s where he had at least two total bases in every game.

Now, Judge will take on the Seattle Mariners and Hancock, who has a 1.56 WHIP this season, allowing 30 hits in 23.2 innings of work.

I’m going to trust the Yankees slugger to pick up two or more bases in this one, as he’s already put together a league-leading 63 hits while turning 27 of those into extra-base knocks.

He’s a steal in this market just about every single game right now. 

Yankees vs. Mariners Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s MLB Best Bets column – Walk-Off Wagers – why the Yankees are the bet to make on Monday:

The New York Yankees are in first place in the AL East heading into Monday’s series opener with the Seattle Mariners, who are in first in the AL West.

Unfortunately for the Mariners, they’ve dropped three games in a row, which has dwindled their lead in the division to just two games.

On Monday, the Yankees have Clarke Schmidt (0-1, 4.79 ERA) on the mound against Seattle’s Emerson Hancock (1-1, 5.70 ERA).

Not the great pitching matchup, huh?

While Schmidt started the season late due to injury and struggled in his first two outings, he has allowed just three runs and eight hits over his last two starts (11.0 innings of work). Hancock has also been better since a rough start, posting a 3.52 ERA in his last four outings.

Still, I’m buying the Yankees in this matchup because they have a superior offense. New York ranks in the top five in OPS, runs scored and batting average this season while the Mariners are ninth in OPS, 15th in batting average and 10th in runs scored.

Those are solid numbers, but New York also has a much better run differential (+75) compared to Seattle (+17). 

Schmidt has been a solid pitcher for New York in recent seasons, and he appears to be settling in after a couple of rough outings. The Yanks are also 3-1 when he’s on the mound in 2025. 

I think they’re worth a look as road favorites on Monday. 

Pick: Yankees Moneyline (-135 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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