Yankees vs. Mets Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Sunday, July 6

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the New York Yankees-New York Mets series finale on Sunday.

Can the Mets sweep the Yankees? / Brad Penner-Imagn Images

The New York Yankees have dropped six games in a row, and they’re in danger of being swept by the New York Mets in their Subway Series this weekend.

The Mets scored 12 runs in Saturday’s win against lefty Carlos Rodon, and they’ll face Yankees ace Max Fried (2.13 ERA) on Sunday.

Chris Devenski will get the ball for the Mets, as they’re dealing with a ton of injuries in their rotation at the moment. Still, they’re 0.5 games back of the Philadelphia Phillies for the top spot in the division entering Sunday’s action.

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to bet on in the prop market and my prediction for this series finale. 

Yankees vs. Mets Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Run Line

• Yankees -1.5 (-125)
• Mets +1.5 (+103)

Moneyline 

• Yankees: -205
• Mets: +167

Total

• 9 (Over -106/Under -115)

Yankees vs. Mets Probable Pitchers

• New York Yankees: Max Fried (10-2, 2.13 ERA)
• New York Mets: Chris Devenski (0-0, 3.38 ERA)

Yankees vs. Mets How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, July 6
• Time: 1:40 p.m. EST
• Venue: Citi Field
• How to Watch (TV): SNY, YES Network
• Yankees record: 48-41
• Mets record: 52-38

Yankees vs. Mets Best MLB Prop Bets

Mets Best MLB Prop Bet

• Pete Alonso to Hit a Home Run (+425)

Earlier today, I broke down in SI Betting’s best home run props – Daily Dinger – why bettors should trust Pete Alonso in a familiar matchup: 

Pete Alonso went deep for the New York Mets on Saturday against the New York Yankees, and he gets to face a familiar starter on Sunday with lefty Max Fried on the mound.

Alonso and Fried have a ton of history against each other from Fried’s time with the Atlanta Braves. While Alonso hasn’t dominated the matchup, he is 10-for-39 with a double, two homers and seven runs batted in against Fried in his career.

The Yankees ace has been really great in 2025, posting a 2.13 ERA, but he has allowed nine homers – including two in his last start.

With New York’s bullpen struggling as of late, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Alonso poke one out in this series finale. The Mets slugger is hitting an impressive .290 with 20 homers this season, and he has a .822 OPS against lefties. 

Yankees vs. Mets Prediction and Pick

This may seem crazy with Fried on the mound (the Yankees are 13-5 in his starts), but I can’t trust the Yanks and their bullpen to win a game right now – especially on the road.

The Yankees have slipped to two games under .500 on the road, and their bullpen ERA has skyrocketed to 4.05 in the 2025 season.

Fried may end up pitching well, but the Yankees have been far less dominant in his last few starts, going 5-4 straight up while the lefty has posted a 3.14 ERA. 

Devenski is going to lead a bullpen game for the Mets, who have one of the better units in baseball (3.75 bullpen ERA) so far in the 2025 season.

This price is pretty crazy for a Mets team that has dominated this series and won four straight games overall. If you’re looking for an upset, this one is worth a bet on July 6. 

Pick: Mets Moneyline (+167 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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