Yankees vs. Royals Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Thursday, June 12

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the New York Yankees-Kansas City Royals matchup on Thursday.

New York Yankees pitcher Will Warren is aiming to bounce back with the Yankees favored on the road. / Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

Will there be a sweep in the rematch from last season’s ALDS between the New York Yankees and Kansas City Royals?

The Yankees took the opening two games of the series, riding some strong offensive performances and a pair of Aaron Judge homers to get to 16 games over .500. Meanwhile, the Royals are 34-34 in the 2025 campaign, and they are in fourth place in the AL Central, 9.5 games behind the Detroit Tigers.

On Thursday, Will Warren will get the ball for the Yankees as he attempts to rebound from two terrible outings in his last two starts. Warren has led the Yanks to a 7-6 record in his 13 appearances in 2025. 

The Royals will counter with Seth Lugo, who has a 3.46 ERA but ranks in the 13th percentile in expected ERA this season.

Will the Yankee offense get to him on Thursday?

Let’s examine the odds, players to bet on in the prop market and my prediction for Thursday’s series finale. 

Yankees vs. Royals Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Run Line

• Yankees -1.5 (+108)
• Royals +1.5 (-131)

Moneyline

• Yankees: -150
• Royals: +123

Total

• 9 (Over -107/Under -114)

Yankees vs. Royals Probable Pitchers

• New York: Will Warren (4-3, 5.34 ERA)
• Kansas City: Seth Lugo (3-5, 3.46 ERA)

Yankees vs. Royals How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, June 12
• Time: 7:40 p.m. EST
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): MLB Network
• Yankees record: 41-25
• Royals record: 34-34

Yankees vs. Royals Best MLB Prop Bet

Yankees Best MLB Prop Bet

• Cody Bellinger OVER 1.5 Total Bases (-105)

Bellinger is hitting .320 over the last seven days, recording eight hits and three extra-base hits in the process.

So, I think he’s a great bet to record two or more bases against Lugo, who ranks in the 13th percentile in expected ERA and the 10th percentile in expected batting average against (.289).

In his career against Lugo, Bellinger is 2-for-7 with a homer and two runs batted in. He’s a solid bet to stay hot in this series finale. 

Yankees vs. Royals Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s MLB best bets – Walk-Off Wagers – why the Yankees’ offense can help them complete the sweep tonight: 

The New York Yankees are looking to sweep the Kansas City Royals on Thursday, and their offense may just be good enough to get it done.

New York is second in batting average, first in OPS and third in runs scored this season, putting up 16 runs in the first two games of this series. Kansas City, on the other hand, is 28th in runs scored and 25th in OPS this season.

In this pitching matchup, I think offense is going to be the key.

New York has Will Warren (5.34 ERA, 3.78 expected ERA) on the mound in this one, and he’s been knocked around in his last few starts, allowing 11 runs in 6.2 innings of work. 

Meanwhile, Seth Lugo ranks in just the 13th percentile in expected ERA (5.22) and is in the 16th percentile or worse in whiff percentage, expected batting average against, average exit velocity against and hard-hit percentage. 

He should struggle against this New York lineup on Thursday. 

Pick: Yankees Moneyline (-150 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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