Market Movement of the Last Five No. 1 NBA Draft Picks' Cards
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The two-day NBA Draft has just concluded, and there's a whole lot to be excited about this season. The 2026 draft class was one of the best overall in recent years, headlined by the man who got selected first overall: AJ Dybantsa.
With his selection to the Washington Wizards now official, Dybantsa joins a long list of #1 overall draft picks that have always been viewed as the future of the NBA before they even put on the cap. Amidst all the hype on AJ Dybantsa and the rest of the Class of '26 at the moment, let's take a look at how the card markets of the past five No. 1 picks are doing.
2021 - Cade Cunningham, Detroit Pistons
Cade Cunningham is one of the few No. 1 picks in modern basketball whose card market is currently at its peak, even compared to its previous heights, especially considering when he was drafted.
The Detroit Pistons' superstar was drafted way back in 2021, and his cards started gaining traction towards the tail end of the pandemic, which is a time when card collecting was a hobby that set new sales records pretty much everyday.
It's hard to pinpoint Cade's — or anyone's for that matter — market movement perfectly, but taking a look at the one card with the highest market cap ever gives a decent idea on the grander scale of things.
Cade's Silver Prizm RC from 2021 Panini Prizm, his biggest-moving card with a market cap of $353.54k, is currently in the same value range as it was way back in 2022. It peaked last April during the height of the Pistons' strong season finish and subsequent playoff run at $1,399 and is currently selling in the $900 range.
This isn't only true for this one particular card of Cade's, but honestly, an overwhelming majority of them. The Index Data for his cards show +79.68% growth over the last year, attributable to a truly superstar-caliber season for him.
2022 - Paolo Banchero, Orlando Magic
For every success story like Cade Cunningham, both career-wise and market-wise, there exists a situation similar to Paolo Banchero. There's no doubt that he's good and definitely someone worth picking up on any fantasy team, but the reality has been far below his pre-debut expectations.
Banchero's sports card market reflects that perfectly, currently sitting at an all-time low as of this writing.
The top Paolo Banchero card by market cap is also a Silver Prizm from his rookie year, but unlike Cunningham's, this particular card has lost nearly half the value compared to its peak selling season way back in 2023.
That being said, this piece from 2022 Prizm is still trending in the mid-$300 range, which is far from awful, but a lot of Banchero's cards don't really enjoy the same level of success, if any.
With a current value of $306 based on the overall Index Data (and an all-time low of $303 just a few days ago), Banchero's sports card market has never been at a lower point.
2023 - Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs
This one will be quick, because no matter where you look, Victor Wembanyama's card market is UP.
Arguably the hottest name in basketball card collecting for the foreseeable future, Wemby's card market is at its peak even weeks after the San Antonio Spurs' 4-1 loss in the NBA Finals.
If you bought a Victor Wembanyama card at any point before the Western Conference Finals, there is a 90 percent chance it's worth more than when you first bought it. If you're even luckier to have owned any Wemby PSA 10 rookie card BEFORE the season began, go treat yourself to a nice holiday weekend.
It doesn't matter what kind of card it is, as long as Victor Wembanyama is the name attached to said cardboard, it's money.
2024 - Zaccharie Risacher, Atlanta Hawks
If you forgot who the #1 pick in the 2024 NBA Draft was, then here's your reminder. Zaccharie Risacher had a decent rookie season in the league and finished second in Rookie of the Year voting behind only Stephon Castle, which was definitely a good sign in terms of potential.
Unfortunately, he struggled more in his sophomore year and saw less court time with limited minutes off the bench. There's obviously still time for him to grow and bounce back from a lackluster season, but when it comes to his sports card market, things have already taken a sharp turn downwards.
To stay consistent with the other players, Zaccharie Risacher's Silver Prizm RC in a PSA 10 will be used as the point of comparison. In mid-2025, average prices for this particular card were around $250, which, for a prospect that's still unproven and just came runner-up in ROTY voting, was definitely a fair price.
Fast-forward to mid-2026 and the market has completely shifted.
Risacher's Silver Prizm RC, encased in a PSA 10 slab, now goes for around $60-70 on average, with only the most recent sale hitting $100. An identical copy even sold last April for only $31, which hardly even covers the overall cost of grading.
2025 - Cooper Flagg, Dallas Mavericks
The newly-crowned Rookie of the Year, Cooper Flagg, came into the league with a tremendous amount of hype, which, for the most part, he's lived up to after one season in the NBA. He's expected to be the Dallas Mavericks' ace in the coming years and, in one way or another, as successor to Luka Dončić.
The sample size for analyzing a player's market movement who just completed his first year isn't substantial enough just yet. The Index Data shows a steady decline, as expected from anyone, but recent sales data over the past three months show a more consistent pattern of highs and lows.
The closest comparison to a Silver Prizm from Panini Prizm is a Refractor from Topps Chrome, which is also Cooper Flagg's biggest card by market cap at a whopping $1.12M.
As with most of his cards currently on the market, growth data over the last three months shows a slight decline, but nothing too significant. The move for Flagg is definitely to buy (or hold if you already bought in earlier) and show some patience to see what he does next, both on the court and in the card market.
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Joaqin is a journalist with a strong passion for the Hobby. He has published work for HLTV.org, Rappler.com, and DLSU Sports. A decade-long Pokémon TCG collector, he recently shifted into sports cards to collect Lakers, Dodgers and Chargers players with growing PCs of Shohei Ohtani and Justin Herbert.