Duke's Epic Final Four Collapse Against Houston Perfectly Summed Up by One Stat

Ryan Phillips | Apr 6, 2025

Duke forward Cooper Flagg leaves the floor following a Final Four loss to Houston. / Robert Deutsch-Imagn Images

Houston authored a comeback for the ages at the Final Four Saturday night to top Duke. No matter how much credit you want to give the Cougars, it's also clear the Blue Devils fell apart. That collapse was neatly summed up by one stat.

Duke controlled the game early and took a 34-28 lead into halftime. The Blue Devils expanded on that margin after the break and took a 59-45 lead when guard Tyrese Proctor hit a free throw with 8:17 remaining.

At this point, the game felt extremely over to anyone paying attention. Just how over was it? According to statistician Evan Miyakawa, at that point, the Blue Devils had a win probablitiy of 98.5%. Fans in the stands were double checking to make sure they had their championship tickets purchased.

But from that point on, Duke made just one shot from the floor for the rest of the game, and Houston outscored the Blue Devils 25-8 to steal a 70-67 victory.

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Yes, the Cougars made shots, pressed their opponents, and pushed hard, then got a little luck as Cooper Flagg missed an open shot that could have given Duke the lead. But the Blue Devils flat-out fell apart over the final eight minutes.

Houston had a 1.5% chance to win the game with 8:17 remaining, and somehow did it.

The Cougars will face Florida in the national championship game on Monday.

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