Bowl Projections After Week 1: North Carolina Tumbles, Appealing Mayo Bowl Matchup

Aside from the College Football Playoff, how the 35 bowl games shape up after a wild weekend.

Bill Belichick and the Tar Heels did not instill confidence for a top bowl slot. / Erick W. Rasco/Sports Illustrated

College football has finally returned for all 136 FBS teams after a Week Zero amuse-bouche, and it didn’t take very long for some of our preconceived notions to become completely flipped on their heads after a long offseason full of debate and wonder. 

Thanks to events in Tallahassee, for example, it might be time to start talking about the Noles again after Florida State straight up bullied Alabama around. The U might be back for real in South Florida, and that school west of the Rockies who flashes the same hand symbol might be too given what transpired in the Rose Bowl. Even filtering on down into the Group of 5 ranks, the American is certainly shaping up to have an incredible season after starting things off on the right foot. The MAC may be much tougher during conference play than expected given how so many teams wound up pushing Power 4 teams through four quarters. 

As a result, the postseason picture underwent a significant shift despite the limited sample size of final score lines. 

Bill Belichick’s uninspiring debut against TCU should cause North Carolina to tumble from being an attractive bowl pick to a team that might soon find out what the greatest NFL head coach looks like donning an oversized sombrero to ring in the New Year in El Paso. Speaking of coaches, Shane Beamer and Bret Bielema could be in line for Round 2 of their postseason spat. It’s also hard to know what might be more appealing in this week’s projected Mayo Bowl matchup, the thought of Lane Kiffin getting a tub of said condiment dumped on his head or all the potential touchdowns we’d be in store for if Ole Miss winds up seeing Jeff Brohm and Louisville.

Here is how Sports Illustrated sees the 35 bowl game matchups coming together to form the postseason picture and which 70 FBS teams will wind up going bowling in 2025–26.

Bowl	Date	Matchup
L.A. Bowl	Dec. 13	Arizona vs. Air Force
Salute to Veterans Bowl	Dec. 16	San Diego State vs. South Alabama
Cure Bowl	Dec. 17	UNLV vs. Central Michigan
68 Ventures Bowl	Dec. 17	Southern Miss vs. Ohio
Myrtle Beach Bowl	Dec. 19	East Carolina vs. Old Dominion
Gasparilla Bowl	Dec. 19	Virginia Tech vs. Missouri
Potato Bowl	Dec. 22	Boise State vs. Buffalo
Boca Raton Bowl	Dec. 23	Utah State vs. Troy
New Orleans Bowl	Dec. 23	Liberty vs. James Madison
Frisco Bowl	Dec. 23	Louisiana Tech vs. Georgia Southern
Hawai‘i Bowl	Dec. 24	Hawai‘i vs. Western Kentucky
Sports Bowl	Dec. 26	Michigan State vs. Toledo
Rate Bowl	Dec. 26	Baylor vs. Minnesota
First Responder Bowl	Dec. 26	Vanderbilt vs. TCU
Military Bowl	Dec. 27	Virginia vs. Navy
Pinstripe Bowl	Dec. 27	Indiana vs. Duke
Fenway Bowl	Dec. 27	Pitt vs. USF
Pop-Tarts Bowl	Dec. 27	BYU vs. Florida State
Arizona Bowl	Dec. 27	Western Michigan vs. San Jose State
New Mexico Bowl	Dec. 27	Colorado State vs. Appalachian State
Gator Bowl	Dec. 27	Auburn vs. Georgia Tech
Texas Bowl	Dec. 27	Iowa State vs. Oklahoma
Birmingham Bowl	Dec. 29	Texas A&M vs. UTSA
Independence Bowl	Dec. 30	Kansas vs. North Texas
Music City Bowl	Dec. 30	Michigan vs. Florida
Alamo Bowl	Dec. 30	Texas Tech vs. USC
ReliaQuest Bowl	Dec. 31	South Carolina vs. Illinois
Sun Bowl	Dec. 31	Cal vs. North Carolina
Citrus Bowl	Dec. 31	Alabama vs. Nebraska
Vegas Bowl	Dec. 31	Oregon State vs. Iowa
Armed Forces Bowl	Jan. 2	Memphis vs. Texas State
Liberty Bowl	Jan. 2	Kansas State vs. Tennessee
Mayo Bowl	Jan. 2	Ole Miss vs. Louisville
Holiday Bowl	Jan. 2	Washington vs. SMU
TBD/Bahamas Bowl	TBD	UTEP vs. Miami (Ohio)