College Football Bowl Projections After Week 13

The finish line to a bonkers regular season looms.
Oklahoma fans celebrate their team's 24–3 win over No. 7 Alabama on Nov. 23, 2024.
Oklahoma fans celebrate their team's 24–3 win over No. 7 Alabama on Nov. 23, 2024. / BRYAN TERRY/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

When you're in the bowl-projection business, it is essential to balance two competing instincts: the instinct to project the bowl schedule as it would look now, and the instinct to project the bowl schedule as it is likely to look after the season.

As you get further into the season and the college football puzzle sorts itself out, the two instincts converge and the exercise becomes easier. The number of square pegs in round holes falls sharply. Some matchups hold steady week-over-week. When chaos strikes—as it did this week, much to the chagrin of Alabama, Texas A&M and others—you can handle it.

Without further ado, let's take a look at a provisional bowl picture based on the AP Poll and College Football Reference's Simple Rating System. With the regular season about to end, Academic Progress Rate—the statistic that determines which 5-7 teams are eligible for bowl games—will be brought online next week if necessary. Commentary follows.

Post-Week 13 Bowl Projections For the 2024 College Football Season

GAME

LOCATION

DATE

PROJECTED MATCHUP

Celebration Bowl

Atlanta

Dec. 14

Jackson State vs. South Carolina State

Salute to Veterans Bowl

Montgomery, Ala.

Dec. 14

Georgia Southern vs. Auburn

Frisco Bowl

Frisco, Texas

Dec. 17

Jacksonville State vs. Texas State

Boca Raton Bowl

Boca Raton, Fla.

Dec. 18

Vanderbilt vs. South Alabama

LA Bowl

Inglewood, Calif.

Dec. 18

UNLV vs. California

New Orleans Bowl

New Orleans

Dec. 19

James Madison vs. Sam Houston

Cure Bowl

Orlando

Dec. 20

Northern Illinois vs. Louisiana-Lafayette

Gasparilla Bowl

Tampa

Dec. 20

LSU vs. East Carolina

College Football Playoff First Round—Game 1

Athens, Ga.

Dec. 20

No. 9 Tennessee at No. 8 Georgia

College Football Playoff First Round—Game 2

University Park, Pa.

Dec. 21

No. 11 Indiana at No. 6 Penn State

College Football Playoff First Round—Game 3

Columbus

Dec. 21

No. 12 Arizona State at No. 5 Ohio State

College Football Playoff First Round—Game 4

South Bend, Ind.

Dec. 21

No. 10 SMU at No. 7 Notre Dame

Myrtle Beach Bowl

Conway, S.C.

Dec. 23

Buffalo vs. Marshall

Potato Bowl

Boise, Idaho

Dec. 23

Miami-Ohio vs. San Jose State

Hawaii Bowl

Honolulu

Dec. 24

Navy vs. Liberty

GameAbove Sports Bowl

Detroit

Dec. 26

Wisconsin vs. Ohio

Rate Bowl

Phoenix

Dec. 26

Rutgers vs. TCU

68 Ventures Bowl

Mobile, Ala.

Dec. 26

Arkansas State vs. Arkansas

Birmingham Bowl

Birmingham

Dec. 27

Oklahoma vs. South Florida

Armed Forces Bowl

Fort Worth

Dec. 27

Connecticut vs. Kansas

Liberty Bowl

Memphis

Dec. 27

Baylor vs. Texas A&M

Holiday Bowl

San Diego

Dec. 27

Duke vs. Washington State

Las Vegas Bowl

Las Vegas

Dec. 27

South Carolina vs. Colorado

Fenway Bowl

Boston

Dec. 28

Tulane vs. Virginia Tech

Pinstripe Bowl

Bronx, N.Y.

Dec. 28

Georgia Tech vs. Michigan

New Mexico Bowl

Albuquerque

Dec. 28

Appalachian State vs. Colorado State

Pop-Tarts Bowl

Orlando

Dec. 28

BYU vs. Pittsburgh

Arizona Bowl

Tucson

Dec. 28

Bowling Green vs. Fresno State

Military Bowl

Annapolis, Md.

Dec. 28

Memphis vs. North Carolina

Alamo Bowl

San Antonio

Dec. 28

Washington vs. Iowa State

Independence Bowl

Shreveport, La.

Dec. 28

Army vs. West Virginia

Music City Bowl

Nashville

Dec. 30

Nebraska vs. Mississippi

ReliaQuest Bowl

Tampa

Dec. 31

Iowa vs. Clemson

Sun Bowl

El Paso, Texas

Dec. 31

Boston College vs. USC

Citrus Bowl

Orlando

Dec. 31

Illinois vs. Alabama

Texas Bowl

Houston

Dec. 31

Kansas State vs. Missouri

Fiesta Bowl

Glendale, Ariz.

Dec. 31

No. 12 Arizona State or No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 4 Boise State

Peach Bowl

Atlanta

Jan. 1

No. 11 Indiana or No. 6 Penn State vs. No. 3 Miami

Rose Bowl

Pasadena, Calif.

Jan. 1

No. 9 Tennessee or No. 8 Georgia vs. No. 1 Oregon

Sugar Bowl

New Orleans

Jan. 1

No. 10 SMU or No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Texas

Gator Bowl

Jacksonville

Jan. 2

Syracuse vs. Florida

First Responder Bowl

Dallas

Jan. 3

UTSA vs. Texas Tech

Duke's Mayo Bowl

Charlotte

Jan. 3

Minnesota vs. Louisville

Bahamas Bowl

Nassau

Jan. 4

Toledo vs. Western Kentucky

Orange Bowl

Miami Gardens, Fla.

Jan. 9

Peach Bowl winner vs. Sugar Bowl winner

Cotton Bowl

Arlington, Texas

Jan. 10

Fiesta Bowl winner vs. Rose Bowl winner

National Championship

Atlanta

Jan. 20

Orange Bowl winner vs. Cotton Bowl winner

FanSided's 2024 College Football Rivalry Week Breakdown. dark. Explore. FanSided Rivalry Week

Notable Potential Bowl Matchups

Do not adjust your television sets: that is Auburn in the Salute to Veterans Bowl against Georgia Southern, which would mark the Tigers' first game in Montgomery's historic Cramton Bowl since 1953... James Madison and Sam Houston (New Orleans Bowl) have a pair of FCS playoff matchups under their belts, one in 2016 and one in 2020.

Tennessee and Georgia (CFP first round) are back together again; the Bulldogs won their Nov. 16 meeting 31–17... Indiana and Penn State (CFP first round) are also conference-mates; the Nittany Lions won last year's meeting between the two teams 33–24... Arizona State and Ohio State (CFP first round) have a high-profile past meeting under their belts— the 1996 season's Rose Bowl, won 20–17 by the Buckeyes... SMU and Notre Dame (CFP first round) met 40 years ago in the 1984 Aloha Bowl, a 27–20 Mustangs victory.

Arkansas State and Arkansas (68 Ventures Bowl) have never met in football; they are scheduled to do so in 2025... Connecticut and Kansas (Armed Forces Bowl) are currently ranked No. 1 and No. 2 in men's basketball... Baylor and Texas A&M (Liberty Bowl), longtime Southwest Conference rivals, have not met since 2011... Tulane and Virginia Tech (Fenway Bowl) played in last year's Military Bowl; bowl executives tend to intervene to prevent rematches... Georgia Tech and Michigan (Pinstripe Bowl) last played in 1934, a game infamous for the Wolverines benching their only Black player Willis Ward at the Yellow Jackets' request... BYU opened its 1984 national championship season against Pittsburgh (Pop-Tarts Bowl), topping the No. 3 Panthers 20–14... Bowling Green and Fresno State (Arizona Bowl) played three times in the California Bowl, a defunct game matching up the MAC and Big West champions... USC beat Boston College (Sun Bowl) 24–13 in the 2009 Emerald Bowl.

A few new potential quarterfinal matchups looming: the Sun Devils and Boise State (Fiesta Bowl; the Broncos won their last meeting in the 2011 Las Vegas Bowl 56–24), ex-conference rivals SMU and Texas (Sugar Bowl), and Kirby Smart's Georgia vs. protege Dan Lanning's Oregon in the Rose Bowl... Syracuse and Florida (Gator Bowl) played in the Orange Bowl after the 1998 season; the Gators won 31–10... Among potential semifinal matchups, keep an eye on Georgia and the Broncos (Cotton Bowl), who split two games in which both were ranked in 2005 and 2011.


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Patrick Andres
PATRICK ANDRES

Patrick Andres is a staff writer on the Breaking and Trending News team at Sports Illustrated. He joined SI in December 2022, having worked for The Blade, Athlon Sports, Fear the Sword and Diamond Digest. Andres has covered everything from zero-attendance Big Ten basketball to a seven-overtime college football game. He is a graduate of Northwestern University's Medill School of Journalism with a double major in history .