College Football Playoff Bracket Live Projections: Conference Championship Scenarios

Throughout the conference championship slate, Sports Illustrated will give an updated look at the playoff seeding and matchups.

Tulane quarterback Jake Retzlaff runs the ball earlier this season. The Green Wave host North Texas in the American title game on Friday. / Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

It is conference championship week, and from the Group of 5 to the Power 4, there are plenty of interesting college football title games to watch this weekend. Throughout the conference championship slate, Sports Illustrated will give an updated look at the playoff seeding and matchups.

Update at 4 p.m. ET Friday:

We made it to the home stretch of the College Football Playoff chase and Friday of championship weekend figures to be as interesting as it has been in close to a decade with potentially multiple teams locking up berths to the most debated bracket in years. 

Most of the attention will naturally fall on the American Conference title game between No. 24 North Texas and No. 20 Tulane in New Orleans. This is a bit of an awkward matchup given both of the head coaches involved are leaving for Power 5 jobs but also figures to be one of the more high-level league title games given the quality of the conference this season and what we’ve seen from each team in 2025. There’s little question the winner of the game is getting a bid to the playoff—though that is open-ended as to whether that would be in the Group of 5 slot or if either the Green Wave or Mean Green actually wind up as the fourth-highest league champion should five-loss Duke win the ACC. More on that Saturday night.

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The Sun Belt championship game is also of great importance as No. 25 James Madison is not only gunning to potentially leapfrog the team directly in front of them in North Texas—a slim chance, but one nonetheless—but potentially make the field in addition to whoever wins the American. The Dukes host Troy in a game where they are a prohibitive favorite, and it’s worth watching to see what kind of style points they put up should they take care of business and not allow the conditions in Harrisonburg, Va., to impact the outcome.

Finally, it’s also worth noting that Dan Mullen has UNLV sitting at 10–2 and travelling up to the blue turf to take on a Boise State that is far from what we saw out of the Broncos last year on their way to the CFP. The Rebels have not shut the door on making the CFP and there should be some added feelings in this one given the pending departure of Boise State to the Pac-12 and how often they’ve wound up on the right side of the scoreboard in this budding rivalry as of late. There should be plenty of explosive plays and a lot of fun out West. 

The selection committee is going to be gathered for the first time to watch the games as a group. Their discussions should lay the groundwork for a very intriguing final vote over the weekend.

With all that in mind, here’s how the bracket looks going into what should be an eventful final weekend as the countdown to Selection Sunday begins.

Live Championship Weekend College Football Playoff Bracket

1. Ohio State
2. Indiana
3. Georgia
4. Texas Tech 
5. Oregon
6. Texas A&M
7. Mississippi 
8. Oklahoma
9. Alabama
10. Notre Dame
11. Virginia
12. Tulane

First Round

• No. 12 Tulane at No. 5 Oregon
• No. 11 Virginia at No. 6 Texas A&M
• No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 7 Mississippi
• No. 9 Alabama at No. 8 Oklahoma

Quarterfinals

• Cotton Bowl: No. 4 Texas Tech vs. winner of No. 12 Tulane at No. 5 Oregon
• Sugar Bowl: No. 3 Georgia vs. winner of No. 11 Virginia at No. 6 Texas A&M
• Orange Bowl: No. 2 Indiana vs. winner of No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 7 Mississippi
• Rose Bowl: No. 1 Ohio State vs. winner of No. 9 Alabama at No. 8 Oklahoma

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No. 12 Tulane at No. 5 Oregon

Heavy rains are set to drench New Orleans in the lead-up to the American title game and after kickoff. That might give a slight edge to the Green Wave given their emphasis on running the football and playing some of the league’s best defense, which could well be the difference in delaying Jon Sumrall’s departure to Florida by a few weeks. As for the Ducks, they have to be sitting at home hoping both Georgia and Texas Tech win their respective leagues so they can remain in the five seed. That gives them a first round game at Autzen against a Group of 5 team while not copying the long layoff that proved to be a problem for Dan Lanning’s team last year.  

No. 11 Virginia at No. 6 Texas A&M 

You have to go back three decades to the last time the Cavaliers even won a share of the ACC, but it’s there for the taking on Saturday night in Charlotte against a Duke team they already beat convincingly a few weeks ago. While the conference office won’t expressly be rooting for the Hoos, you can bet they will be internally to guarantee at least one team from the league. As for the Aggies, they will be eyeing both the Group of 5 games and the ACC title game to get a little advance scouting in place. 

No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 7 Mississippi

Are the Irish well and truly safe? Or are we about to have a 2014 situation where their résumé is complete but a team unexpectedly gets dropped. It’s enough to make for a nervous weekend in South Bend and cause some Notre Dame fans to buy a few tortillas to throw for good luck in support of Texas Tech winning the Big 12 so there’s at least an at-large spot for them. Things are a little more interesting in Oxford, Miss., as a mishmash of a coaching staff hunkers down to prepare for what looks like the biggest game in school history.

No. 9 Alabama at No. 8 Oklahoma

The Tide can leave no doubt Saturday in Atlanta and it’s not foolish to think that a win over Georgia hands them a home game at Bryant-Denny Stadium. As for the Sooners, they have been stuck on that first-round home game cut line for weeks and could have some interesting emotions if a championship game upset takes away the ability to play one last one at the Palace on the Prairie. 

Cotton Bowl: No. 4 Texas Tech

Joey McGuire’s team has accomplished a lot of firsts this season. The sweetest one however? The one that makes much of that money invested into one of the best rosters in football worth it? It might come on Saturday afternoon in Arlington, Texas, if they capture their first Big 12 title and a return trip to the Cotton Bowl for the CFP.

Sugar Bowl: No. 3 Georgia

Does Kirby Smart have a hex on him when he plays Alabama or does he simply self-destruct when he sees houndstooth? Nobody puts more value on winning the SEC than the Bulldogs coach and he’ll have his team fired up for a little revenge on Saturday that should lead to some championship rings to boot. 

Orange Bowl: No. 2 Indiana

The talk about the Big Ten title game “not mattering” will likely draw a load of choice words and expletives out of Curt Cignetti’s mouth. Of course it matters to the Hoosiers. They haven’t beaten Ohio State since 1988. They’re playing to win their conference—in football. A trip to the Rose Bowl is on the line. It doesn’t get more exciting than that for those in that state on what could be an epic day in Indianapolis. 

Rose Bowl: No. 1 Ohio State

We’ll find out on Saturday night if the lack of tests within conference play has been an issue for a Buckeyes team that has been utterly dominant from start to finish this season. It’s not a stretch to say that the outcome of the Big Ten title game will go a ways in determining if the CFP will be a playoff chase to get to Miami or if it’s simply a coronation for a Columbus dynasty.

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