North Texas vs. Tulane: Three Bold Predictions for American Championship

Karl Rasmussen | 2 Hours Ago

North Texas Mean Green QB Drew Mestemaker leads all of the FBS in passing yards. / Danny Wild-Imagn Images

The winner of the American championship game will secure a place in the College Football Playoff, making Friday night’s game between North Texas and Tulane a must-watch.

Both the Mean Green and the Green Wave finished the season with a 7–1 record in conference play. Overall, North Texas enters the day at 11–1, while Tulane is 10–2, but it’s the Green Wave who are ranked higher by the AP, coming in at No. 20 in the latest rankings.

North Texas come in as winners of each of its last six games. Its lone loss came on October 10, when they were blown out 63–36 by USF. Since then, the high-flying Mean Green offense has scored 50 or more points in five of its six consecutive victories.

As for Tulane, the Green Wave are in the midst of a four-game win streak. Their two losses came to Ole Miss (45–10) and UTSA (48–26), but they’ve turned things around over the last month and could find themselves playing on college football’s biggest stage.

So, with a place in the College Football Playoff on the line, let’s make some bold predictions for the American Championship.

Tulane QB Jake Retzlaff will run for 100-plus yards and two touchdowns

Tulane Green Wave quarterback Jake Retzlaff has 14 rushing touchdowns in 2025. / Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

Jake Retzlaff has excelled at making plays on the ground this year, racking up as many rushing touchdowns (14) as passing touchdowns, and his 14 TD’s on the ground are tied for fifth among FBS quarterbacks. Retzlaff has scored a rushing touchdown in 10 of his 12 games this season, including each of his last six contests.

The matchup against North Texas bodes well for Retzlaff on the ground. The Mean Green surrender the eighth-most rushing yards per game (207.9) among all FBS teams. Retzlaff has two games with 100-plus rushing yards under his belt already, and he’s also got two games with multiple rushing touchdowns.

In what figures to be a shootout between Tulane and North Texas, I’m predicting Retzlaff will be running rampant and wind up with over 100 yards and a pair of rushing scores.

Drew Mestemaker will throw for 400-plus yards and three touchdowns

Drew Mestemaker has 29 touchdowns and four interceptions for North Texas this season / Tim Heitman-Imagn Images

No quarterback in FBS has more passing yards than Mestemaker, who has racked up 3,835 yards on the campaign. He’s incredibly efficient, having completed 70.9% of his passes and averaging 319.5 yards per game. He’s thrown 29 touchdowns for the Mean Green along with just four interceptions.

With the American Championship on the line, Mestemaker will be tasked with dismantling a Tulane defense that has surrendered the 18th-most passing yards (251.9) in all of the FBS this season. He’s been playing some of the best football of his career of late, too, which bodes well for a matchup against a lackluster pass defense.

Heading into Friday’s game, Mestemaker has thrown for 16 touchdowns and just one interception over his last six games. He’s averaged 375.6 passing yards per game over that span, and has completed 72% or more of his passes in five of those six contests. I’m predicting his top-tier play will continue, and he’ll tear up a Green Wave secondary to the tune of 400-plus yards and at least three touchdowns.

North Texas will score 50-plus points and win in a shootout

North Texas has one of college football’s most potent passing offenses. / Raymond Carlin III-Imagn Images

As previously mentioned, North Texas has scored at least 52 points in five of its last six games, including three straight. I’m expecting them to keep that streak rolling, taking advantage of a subpar Tulane defense in order to win the battle through the air. Mestemaker has been one of the best quarterbacks in the country this year, and I’m expecting him to lead the charge in what will be a high-scoring North Texas victory.

The Green Wave will put up a fight, and Retzlaff will do all he can to keep his team in the game, but in the end, the potent Mean Green offense will be too much for Tulane to overcome. I’m predicting there will be a total of no less than 80 points combined in this game, and for North Texas to secure its place in the College Football Playoff with an electric, high-scoring win.

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