Oregon State vs. Texas: Alamo Bowl Breakdown

Note: An earlier version of this preview predicted a Texas win; the author has changed his prediction in light of the latest news out of Texas. Oregon State

Stewart Mandel | Dec 25, 2012

Oregon State vs. Texas: Alamo Bowl Breakdown /

Note: An earlier version of this preview predicted a Texas win; the author has changed his prediction in light of the latest news out of Texas.

Oregon State (9-3) vs. Texas (8-4)Dec. 29, 6:45 p.m. ET (ESPN)

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? Reason to watch: Oregon State is the best turnaround story of the season (from 3-9 to 9-3) and a fun team to watch, especially given its dynamic receiving duo of Markus Wheaton (100.6 yards per game) and Brandin Cooks (93.3) and its physical defense led by All-America defensive end Scott Crichton (nine sacks). Unlike their opponent, the Beavers have managed to juggle two quarterbacks, Sean Mannion (64.7 percent completions, 2,446 yards) and Cody Vaz (11 touchdowns, one interception), with relatively little controversy. Texas, on the other hand, is worth watching primarily for its never-ending soap opera, which on Friday took a dark turn. The school suspended and sent home two players, reported to be quarterback Case McCoy and linebacker Jordan Hicks, for violating team rules, amid a San Antonio police investigation into a sexual assault allegation made by a 21-year-old woman. Previously, the biggest storyline for the Longhorns was Major Applewhite's first game as the new offensive play-caller.

? Keep an eye on: The Texas defense, a much-maligned unit (75th nationally) that got better late in the season, allowing 16.5 points per game in the four contests prior to the Longhorns' season-ending 42-24 loss to Kansas State. There's no shortage of talent in this group, as defensive end Alex Okafor (eight sacks) and safety Kenny Vacarro (100 tackles) will likely be high-round NFL draft picks. (Another, end Jackson Jeffcoat, was lost for the season in mid-October.) Poor tackling has been Texas' biggest downfall, something it can't afford against Wheaton and Cooks, both of whom can turn a short initial gain into a game-breaking touchdown.

? Did you know: Oregon State's Mike Riley spent two seasons (1991 and '92) coaching the San Antonio Riders of the defunct World League of American Football when he was in his late 30s. Riley and his wife, Dee, enjoyed their time there so much that they keep a summer home in Texas Hill Country.

? Final analysis: Originally I predicted that up-and-down Texas would put things together and pull off the upset in front of a partisan, in-state crowd. But suspensions and serious allegations involving two high-profile players on the eve of the game seem like too big of a distraction to overcome. Texas' offense will sputter while Beavers quarterback Vaz will make some key plays.

? The pick: Texas 28, Oregon State 24 Oregon State 27, Texas 14

Published Dec 25, 2012

STEWART MANDEL

Senior Writer, Sports Illustrated Stewart Mandel first caught the college football bug as a sophomore at Northwestern University in 1995. "The thrill of that '95 Rose Bowl season energized the entire campus, and I quickly became aware of how the national media covered that story," he says. "I knew right then that I wanted to be one of those people, covering those types of stories." Mandel joined SI.com (formerly CNNSI.com) in 1999. A senior writer for the website, his coverage areas include the national college football beat and college basketball. He also contributes features to Sports Illustrated. "College football is my favorite sport to cover," says Mandel. "The stakes are so high week in and week out, and the level of emotion it elicits from both the fans and the participants is unrivaled." Mandel's most popular features on SI.com include his College Football Mailbag and College Football Overtime. He has covered 14 BCS national championship games and eight Final Fours. Mandel's first book, Bowls, Polls and Tattered Souls: Tackling the Chaos and Controversy That Reign Over College Football, was published in 2007. In 2008 he took first place (enterprise category) and second place (game story) in the Football Writers Association of America's annual writing contest. He also placed first in the 2005 contest (columns). Mandel says covering George Mason's run to the Final Four was the most enjoyable story of his SI tenure. "It was thrilling to be courtside for the historic Elite Eight upset of UConn," Mandel says. "Being inside the locker room and around the team during that time allowed me to get to know the coaches and players behind that captivating story." Before SI.com Mandel worked at ESPN the Magazine, ABC Sports Online and The Cincinnati Enquirer. He graduated from Northwestern University in 1998 with a B.S. in journalism. A Cincinnati native, Mandel and his wife, Emily, live in Santa Clara, Calif.