Bowl Projections: Fourth Spot Remains Up for Grabs After Oregon Loss

Our latest college football bowl projection forecasts all 40 matchups, including the College Football Playoff and full New Year's Six.
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Does Utah deserve a College Football Playoff spot over Alabama or Oklahoma?

Oregon was knocked out of the playoff picture with a loss to Arizona State on Saturday, but the race for the fourth and final spot remains murky with two weeks to go. Georgia winning out would likely make for a simple decision from the committee, but a loss to LSU in the SEC title game could create one of the longer debates in playoff history.

Oklahoma and Utah could have dueling résumés as one-loss conference champions. Alabama could finish 11–1, with the Crimson Tide’s lone loss coming to the best LSU team in recent memory. Want things to get truly crazy? It’s not inconceivable for Georgia, Alabama, Oklahoma and Utah to all finish the season with two losses. Two-loss teams still have hope, even if only a sliver. 

Check out Sports Illustrated’s latest crop of bowl projections below:

Dec. 20

Bahamas Bowl, Nassau (2 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Conference USA vs. MAC

Western Kentucky vs. Buffalo

Frisco Bowl (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2)

American vs. Sun Belt

Tulane vs. Arkansas State

Dec. 21

Celebration Bowl, Atlanta (12 p.m. ET, ABC)

MEAC vs. SWAC

Florida A&M vs. Alcorn State

New Mexico Bowl, Albuquerque (2 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Conference USA vs. MWC

Southern Miss vs. Utah State

Cure Bowl, Orlando (2:30 p.m. ET, CBSSN)

American vs. Sun Belt

Temple vs. Georgia Southern

Boca Raton Bowl (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC)

MAC vs. American

Central Michigan vs. UCF

Camellia Bowl, Montgomery (5:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)

MAC vs. Sun Belt

Ohio vs. Georgia State

Las Vegas Bowl (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC)

Pac-12 vs. SEC or Big Ten or MWC

Arizona State vs. San Diego State

New Orleans Bowl (9 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Conference USA vs. Sun Belt

Charlotte vs. Louisiana Lafayette

Dec. 23

Gasparilla Bowl, Tampa (2:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Conference USA vs. American

UAB vs. Boston College

Dec. 24

Hawai'i Bowl, Honolulu (8 p.m. ET, ESPN)

MWC or BYU vs. American

Hawaii vs. BYU

Dec. 26

Independence Bowl, Shreveport (4 p.m. ET, ESPN)

SEC vs. ACC or Notre Dame

Florida Atlantic vs. Florida State

Quick Lane Bowl, Detroit (8 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Big Ten vs. ACC or Notre Dame

Michigan State vs. Miami (OH)

Dec. 27

Military Bowl, Annapolis (12 p.m. ET, ESPN)

American vs. ACC or Notre Dame

Navy vs. Louisville

Pinstripe Bowl, Bronx (3:20 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Big Ten vs. ACC or Notre Dame

Indiana vs. Pittsburgh

Texas Bowl, Houston (6:45 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Big 12 vs. SEC

Texas vs. Mississippi State

Holiday Bowl, San Diego (8 p.m. ET, FS1)

Big Ten vs. Pac-12

Michigan vs. Washington State

Cheez-It Bowl, Phoenix (10:15 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Big 12 vs. Pac-12

TCU vs. Boise State

Dec. 28

Camping World Bowl, Orlando (12 p.m. ET, ABC)

Big 12 vs. ACC or Notre Dame

Oklahoma State vs. Notre Dame

Dec. 30

First Responder Bowl, Dallas (12:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Big 12 vs. Conference USA

Texas Tech vs. Louisiana Tech

Music City Bowl, Nashville (4 p.m. ET, ESPN)

SEC vs. ACC or Big Ten or Notre Dame

Tennessee vs. Wake Forest

Redbox Bowl, Santa Clara (4 p.m. ET, FOX)

Big Ten vs. Pac-12

Illinois vs. Washington

Dec. 31

Belk Bowl, Charlotte (12 p.m. ET, ESPN)

SEC vs. ACC

Kentucky vs. Virginia

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl, El Paso (2 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Pac-12 vs. ACC or Notre Dame

Cal vs. Miami

Liberty Bowl, Memphis (3:45 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Big 12 vs. SEC

Kansas State vs. Cincinnati

Arizona Bowl, Tucson (4:30 p.m. ET, CBSSN)

MWC vs. Sun Belt

Wyoming vs. Appalachian State

Alamo Bowl, San Antonio (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Big 12 vs. Pac-12

Iowa State vs. USC

Jan. 1

Citrus Bowl, Orlando (1 p.m. ET, ABC)

Big Ten vs. SEC

Penn State vs. Florida

Outback Bowl, Tampa (1 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Big Ten vs. SEC

Wisconsin vs. Auburn

Jan. 2

Birmingham Bowl (3 p.m. ET, ESPN)

SEC vs. American

North Carolina vs. SMU

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl, Jacksonville (7 p.m. ET, ESPN)

SEC vs. ACC or Big Ten or Notre Dame

Texas A&M vs. Iowa

Jan. 3

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, Boise (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)

MAC vs. MWC

Toledo vs. Nevada

Jan 4

Armed Forces Bowl, Fort Worth (11:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)

MWC vs. Big Ten

Air Force vs. Fresno State

Jan. 6

Mobile Alabama Bowl (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)

MAC vs. Sun Belt

Western Michigan vs. Arkansas State

New Year's Six Bowls

Cotton Bowl Classic, Arlington (Dec. 28, noon, ESPN)

At-large vs. At-large

Memphis vs. Baylor

Orange Bowl, Miami Gardens (Dec. 30, 8 p.m., ESPN)

ACC vs. Big Ten, SEC or Notre Dame

Virginia Tech vs. Georgia

Rose Bowl Game, Pasadena (Jan. 1, 5 p.m., ESPN)

Big Ten vs. Pac-12

Minnesota vs. Oregon

Sugar Bowl, New Orleans (Jan. 1, 8:45 p.m., ESPN)

SEC vs. Big 12

Alabama vs. Oklahoma

Fiesta Bowl, Glendale (Dec. 28, 4 or 8 p.m., ESPN)

CFP semifinalist vs. CFP semifinalist

LSU vs. Clemson

Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl, Atlanta (Dec. 28, 4 or 8 p.m., ESPN)

CFP semifinalist vs. CFP semifinalist

Ohio State vs. Utah

College Football Playoff National Championship, New Orleans (Jan. 13, 8 p.m., ESPN)

CFP semifinal winner vs. CFP semifinal winner