College Basketball Expert Picks: Kansas-Baylor Heavyweight Rematch Leads Weekend
Perhaps the biggest game of the men's college basketball season is this weekend, with No. 3 Kansas traveling to Waco to take on No. 1 Baylor in a Big 12 clash. The Bears already won Round 1 in Lawrence, the only game either team has lost in 2020. Saturday's showdown will have the eyes of the college hoops world, but it's not the only important matchup this weekend. This week's picks include Oregon-Arizona, Michigan-Purdue, Creighton-Butler, Gonzaga-BYU and more. Who has the edge? Our writers' predictions for 15 games are below.
Season-Long Standings:
Jason Jordan: 11-4 (73.3%)
Molly Geary: 116-74 (61.1%)
Pat Forde: 114-76 (60.0%)
Michael Shapiro: 113-77 (59.5%)
Jeremy Woo: 107-85 (56.3%)
All times are Eastern.
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No. 3 Kansas at No. 1 Baylor (Sat., 12 p.m., ESPN)
Pat Forde picks Baylor: This is, without question, the biggest game of the entire season nationally. The winner could get the inside track to the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA tourney. If the Bears win, their hopes of becoming the first Big 12 team to go undefeated in conference play since 2002 take a major step forward. This should be a wicked defensive battle, with challenged shots everywhere. Home court and a rabid GameDay crowd should tilt this in favor of Baylor.
No. 19 Marquette at Providence (Sat., 12 p.m., FOX)
Jeremy Woo picks Providence: The road hasn’t been all that kind to Marquette this season, and Providence has been a different team on its own turf. The Friars won the first round in Milwaukee and need this win badly, and if they limit mistakes and muck the game up, they should get it done.
Virginia at Pitt (Sat., 12 p.m., ESPN2)
Jason Jordan picks Virginia: The Cavs and the Panthers are statistically two of the worst offensive teams in the ACC, making just 40% of their field goals every game. On the flipside, the numbers say they’re two of the best defensive teams in the league, but Virginia has won six of its last seven games. The defending national champs are still fighting for their NCAA tournament lives and seem to be hitting a determined stride led by senior forward Mamadi Diakite.
No. 22 Houston at Memphis (Sat., 2 p.m., ESPN2)
Jeremy Woo picks Houston: The Tigers need to find a way to halt their latest slide, but even on their home court, they may have a tricky time handling Houston. I’d guess this ends up being pretty close.
Michigan at Purdue (Sat., 2 p.m., ESPN)
Pat Forde picks Purdue: The Wolverines are surging and the Boilermakers are stumbling, which means it's probably time to counterprogram those trends and take Purdue. The Boilers should be a desperate team, watching their NCAA bid slide into jeopardy, and they have been far better in Mackey Arena than elsewhere. This is the second road game of the week for Michigan, and they haven't swept two league road games in a week since 2018.
No. 12 Villanova at Xavier (Sat., 2:30 p.m., FOX)
Michael Shapiro picks Villanova: Villanova has an uphill climb to catch Seton Hall for the Big East title, but the Wildcats should bank another conference win at Xavier on Saturday. Collin Gillespie is in a quality stretch from beyond the arc, and the Musketeers lack the scoring punch to keep up with the conference’s premier power. This isn’t a major endorsement of Villanova, which has struggled against Top-25 competition. Still, Saturday shouldn’t be a hiccup as Jay Wright’s squad approaches the stretch run.
No. 8 Florida State at NC State (Sat., 4 p.m., ACCN)
Jason Jordan picks Florida State: The Seminoles will bring the second-best scoring offense 75.6 ppg) in the ACC to Raleigh, N.C., against one of the worst defensive teams in the league, which gives up 69.1 points a game. Yes, the Wolfpack routed Duke on Wednesday and Devin Vassell and Co. could potentially be looking ahead to their meeting with No. 11 Louisville two days later, but with top spot in the ACC on the line, don’t expect the Seminoles to fold.
Florida at No. 10 Kentucky (Sat., 6 p.m., ESPN)
Michael Shapiro picks Kentucky: Kentucky has won five straight to seize a lead in the SEC, looking more like a Final Four contender by the week. The Wildcats’ guard trio is beginning to perform as expected after a shaky offensive start to the season. Tyrese Maxey has been increasingly efficient of late. The NET rankings suggest John Calipari and Co. are a touch overrated, but make no mistake: Kentucky is turning into a Final Four contender at the right time.
LSU at South Carolina (Sat., 6 p.m., ESPN2)
Jeremy Woo picks LSU: The Gamecocks have benefited from an exceedingly weak conference slate. Is it weird that I still trust LSU?
No. 14 Oregon at No. 24 Arizona (Sat., 9 p.m., ESPN)
Pat Forde picks Arizona: One of these two has won the Pac-12 regular-season title five of the last six years, and the last four league tournament titles. This edition is a rematch of an overtime game in Eugene that Oregon won by a single point. The Ducks have beaten Arizona four straight times, but they will be coming off a test in Tempe Thursday against Arizona State. Take the home team here.
No. 2 Gonzaga at No. 23 BYU (Sat., 10 p.m., ESPN2)
Molly Geary picks BYU: This is a tough call. This WCC clash pits two elite offenses and two of the top three perimeter shooting teams in the country (the Cougars, though, shoot it at a higher rate), as well as two offenses that excel in the halfcourt. When the Zags stomped BYU in Spokane a month ago, the Cougars were without star big man Yoeli Childs, by far their best defensive rebounder. That was a critical piece missing against Gonzaga's scary frontline, though Childs alone won't be enough to slow it. Where BYU can counter is from the outside, and its shots will need to be falling in a crazed atmosphere in Provo to pull off this upset. On Senior Night, we're betting they will.
No. 9 Penn State at Indiana (Sun., 12 p.m., FS1)
Molly Geary picks Penn State: When these two teams met in State College the Nittany Lions won by 15–and that was despite missing 12 free throws. Expect things to be closer at Assembly Hall, with both teams having a lot to play for. PSU is trying to catch Maryland in the Big Ten race and maintain a high seed in the Big Dance, while the Hoosiers are fighting for their NCAA tournament lives. If Penn State weren't coming off a tough loss to Illinois that snapped its win streak, I'd lean Indiana. But the Nits haven't been bothered much on the road this year and should be extra focused after defeat.
Rutgers at Wisconsin (Sun., 1 p.m., BTN)
Jason Jordan picks Wisconsin: The Badgers are riding high on a three-game winning streak and are tied for third in the Big Ten, but what bodes well for them in this particular matchup is simple: They’re at home against the Scarlet Knights. The Badgers are 12-1 this season in the friendly confines of the Kohl Center and Rutgers is just 1-6 on the road this season. Yes, the Scarlet Knights will be more motivated coming off a home loss to Michigan but changing the road loss narrative isn’t likely to happen in Madison.
No. 7 Maryland at No. 25 Ohio State (Sun., 4 p.m., CBS)
Molly Geary picks Maryland: The Terps' nine-game winning streak is going to burst at some point, but they've played well on the road of late and this matchup seems somewhat favorable to them even though Ohio State has largely gotten back on track. Jalen Smith has the ability to go toe-to-toe with Kaleb Wesson, and Maryland's ability to get to the free throw line lines up with one of the Buckeyes' bigger weaknesses in Big Ten play. The X-factor is Ohio State's three-point shooting against the Terrapins' defense.
No. 21 Butler at No. 15 Creighton (Sun., 4 p.m., FS1)
Michael Shapiro picks Creighton: Saturday’s tilt may be one of the best matchups if the weekend, and it’s hard to see Creighton’s home dominance ending anytime soon. And the Bluejays have more than home court on their side. They’ve knocked off Villanova, Seton Hall and Marquette in February, riding one of the nation’s most vaunted three-point attacks. The Bulldogs are stingy, and Butler will be back in the tournament after a rare absence last season. But Creighton should keep rolling on a warm afternoon in Omaha.
