Cinderella Spotlight: Utah State Has the Goods to Make Noise in March
Utah State had no interest in waiting until Selection Sunday to learn its NCAA tournament fate.
The Aggies entered the Mountain West tournament in Las Vegas squarely on the bubble for an at-large bid, but took matters into their own hands by winning three games in three days and knocking off No. 5 San Diego State to lock up the first automatic bid to the Big Dance Saturday afternoon. USU rallied from 16 down in the closing minutes of the first half to win in thrilling fashion, stunning the predominantly pro-Aztec crowd with a stepback Sam Merrill three for the win with 2.5 seconds to go that broke a 56-all tie.
After a 2018-19 season that saw Utah State stun most preseason prognosticators by winning the Mountain West regular season and tournament championship with a new coach in Craig Smith, the Aggies entered 2019-20 with massive expectations. Ranked 17th in the preseason AP Poll, USU was perhaps the trendiest pick for a mid-major Cinderella. But things didn’t go exactly as planned. A preseason knee injury to sophomore forward Neemias Queta was a significant blow: Queta tested the NBA draft waters following a terrific freshman campaign, and his ability to protect the rim was the primary reason why the Aggies had the fourth-best two-point FG% defense in the country that season.
Even without Queta at full strength, Utah State grabbed résumé-building wins over LSU and Florida on neutral courts in the season’s first two months. However, a catastrophic 1-4 start in Mountain West play essentially eliminated any margin for error. That stretch included a bad loss to an Air Force team that finished 12-20 and a late collapse at Boise State during which USU at one point had a 99.8% chance of winning, per KenPom.
That loss could have derailed the season, but the Aggies bounced back. Nine wins in 10 games re-ignited at-large hopes, but a loss at New Mexico on the final day of the regular season essentially eliminated all margin for error. Sitting in the First Four Out in The Bracket Matrix entering the game against SDSU, it’s very possible the Aggies would have been on the outside looking in had they not won the league title. Instead, they left no doubt and earned their bid the hard way.
Ranked 39th in the NCAA's NET rankings and owning three neutral-court wins over clear NCAA tournament clubs, USU should be positioned well to make a run. A No. 11 seed seems realistic as of now, but plenty of movement around it in the coming week could bump it up or down a seed line. Regardless, this is a team that is built well for a deep run in March.
No one would consider Utah State the most athletic or talented team in the field. Two starters are former walk-ons in double-double machine Justin Bean and steady floor general Abel Porter. But what the Aggies may lack in athleticism, they make up for in skill level and experience. Of the eight players in their regular rotation, six played minutes on last year’s NCAA tournament team. They run crisp offensive action and share the ball extremely well, ranking ninth in the country in assists per field goal per KenPom. When the moment is biggest, Smith has the luxury of putting the ball in the hands of one of the best shot-makers in the country in Merrill, who has tallied over 2,000 points and countless clutch shots in his career.
Defensively, Queta’s combination of mobility, length and shot-blocking instincts is a difference-maker and allows Utah State to match up on the inside against high-major competition. Add in a heady player and elite rebounder at the four in Bean and a very good defender on the wing in Diogo Brito, and USU has the ability to win a game with its defense. The best evidence of this came Saturday, when the Aggies held an SDSU offense ranked 10th nationally in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency to a season-worst 0.92 points per possession.
In the past five seasons, there have been five mid-major teams not named Gonzaga to rank in the top 50 nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Of those five teams, four won at least one game in the Big Dance and all five were seven seeds or better. The Aggies currently rank 49th on offense and 46th on defense. With an experienced core, superstar senior guard and a stingy defense, Utah State has all the makings of a team that can win a game or two in the NCAA tournament.
