Forde Minutes: Seeding Dilemmas, Life in the Fast Lane, Mid-Major Bid-Chasers and More
Forty names, games, teams and minutiae making news in college basketball, where the Drake-Loyola Chicago feud has now supplanted the Drake-Pusha T feud as the best Drake feud:
SEEDING DILEMMAS
We’re inside a month until Selection Sunday, which means the Bracketology machinery will be running overdrive. Dozens of game results will be viewed through the prism of the NCAA tournament: who is in, who is out, what seeds should be assigned to those on the right side of the bubble.
The men’s basketball selection committee gave us the annual sneak preview Saturday, and there wasn’t much controversial about it—but that doesn’t mean that creating the final product is going to be easy. With the varied number of games played, the truncated nonconference schedules and the X factor COVID-19 pauses, there could (and probably should) be a considerable range of opinions in the committee room.
The Minutes suspects that one of two things will happen: the committee will rely even more heavily on metrics so that they can point to a math formula when faced with criticism; or it will rely even more heavily on the eye test and make subjective decisions.
Regardless, there are plenty of résumés that are open to wide interpretation. The Minutes looks at 11 of them (NCAA NET rankings and Bracket Matrix numbers as of Sunday morning):
Bryon Houlgrave/The Register, Jeffrey Becker, Denny Medley/USA TODAY Sports
Virginia (1). Record: 15–3, 11–1 in the Atlantic Coast Conference. NET Ranking: Sixth. Bracket matrix seeding: The top No. 3 seed. The debate: Can the committee actually make itself leave the best team in the ACC off the top two seed lines? The last time that happened was—brace yourself—1990. Last time the league hasn’t had a No. 1 seed was 2013. But the ACC is down, ranking fourth in Ken Pomeroy’s conference hierarchy. And the Cavaliers, as of now, have spent most of their time playing the league’s lesser lights. The other ACC teams in the NET top 40 are Florida State, Virginia Tech and Louisville, and Virginia’s combined record against them is 0–1. The ‘Hoos play at FSU Monday night, so keep an eye on that one.
Indiana (2). Record: 11–9, 6–7 in the Big Ten. NET ranking: 51st. Bracket Matrix seeding: The second No. 10 seed. The debate: Is the committee seeding the team that swept Iowa, or the team that was incredibly lucky not to be swept by Northwestern? For now, the Hoosiers are in because of two victories over the Hawkeyes. But those games are absolutely the only bright moments in the last month for a team that has seen early victories over Providence and Butler lose value. If Indiana slides to a No. 11 seed and winds up in a First Four game, it would take place on the floor of arch-rival Purdue, because the other First Four site is the Hoosiers’ Assembly Hall. They won’t play there.
Alabama (3). Record: 17–5, 12–1 in the Southeastern Conference. NET ranking: Ninth. Bracket matrix seeding: the third No. 2 seed. The debate: Dominating a league vs. muddling through the nonconference. The Crimson Tide are running away with the SEC, holding a three-game lead in the loss column with five winnable games to go. The flip side is non-con losses to bubble teams Stanford and Western Kentucky, in addition to Clemson and an Oklahoma team missing its best player. Early indications are that the committee is all-in with the Tide, awarding a No. 2 seed Saturday.
Texas Tech (4). Record: 14–6, 6–5 in the Big 12. NET ranking: 14th. Bracket Matrix seeding: the third No. 4 seed. The debate: How many “good losses” are too many? The committee likes the Red Raiders enough to have given them a No. 3 seed Saturday. But as of Sunday morning, they’re the only team in the NCAA NET top 30 with a losing record against Quad 1 and 2 competition, checking in at 5–6. Road wins over Oklahoma, Texas and LSU must be carrying a lot of weight. Half of Tech’s six losses are either by a point or in overtime.
Stanford (5). Record: 13–8, 9–6 in the Pac-12. NET ranking: 60th. Bracket Matrix seeding: the third No. 12 seed. The debate: Is there a nomad bubble credit to be earned from the committee? The Cardinal didn’t play a game in Maples Pavilion until February, 16 games into the schedule. They spent the start of the season based in North Carolina, then played five “home” games in Santa Cruz, Calif., about 45 miles from campus. Given that, and the fact that exactly one player has participated in all 21 games, and Stanford has a pretty compelling dossier of mitigating circumstances.
Creighton (6). Record: 16–5, 12–4 in the Big East. NET ranking: 22nd. Bracket Matrix seeding: the second No. 6 seed. The debate: How big an anchor are three bad losses? The Bluejays are 1–3 in Quad 3 games, worst in the NET’s top 90 teams. Home losses to Marquette, Providence and Georgetown will leave a mark, as will a road loss against Butler. Creighton added some beef to the résumé Saturday by blowing out Villanova, but now have a gap between games. The Jays seemingly could end up anywhere from a No. 3 to a No. 8 at this point.
Houston (7). Record: 17–2, 11–2 in the American Athletic Conference. NET ranking: fifth. Bracket Matrix seeding: the fourth No. 2 seed. The debate: How is Houston’s seeding surviving two very bad losses that keep getting worse? The Cougars have killed a lot of teams this season, but they also lost to a Tulsa team that is now 6–7 in the American Athletic Conference and—worse—to an East Carolina team that is last in the league and has beaten nobody else since before Christmas. (And the loss to the Pirates wasn’t particularly close; ECU led for the final 17 minutes.) The Cougars are the only AAC team in the top 55 of the NET rankings. Their win over Texas Tech in November is doing a lot of work on this résumé.
Missouri (8). Record: 13–5, 6–5 in the SEC. NET ranking: 36th. Bracket Matrix seeding: the second No. 4 seed. The debate: What to do with a team that has the wins of a No. 2 seed but the losses of a No. 7 seed? The Tigers have some great victories: Oregon on a neutral floor; Illinois; Tennessee on the road; Alabama. And in each of those wins, Mizzou led the vast majority of the game. But it also has three losses by 15 or more points, including blowouts against non-tourney teams Mississippi and Mississippi State. The Tigers have a run of winnable games in the next two weeks and need to take advantage to keep their seeding up.
Drake (9). Record: 20–2, 11–2 in the Missouri Valley Conference. NET ranking: 40th. Bracket Matrix seeding: the third No. 11 seed. The debate: Are the Bulldogs damaged goods? Eking out a one-point, overtime, come-from-behind victory over Loyola Chicago Sunday was huge because it showed that Drake can win a big game without leading scoring ShanQuan Hemphill, who had surgery last week on an injured foot. Drake says he could be back in four weeks, because of course that’s what it says—the Bulldogs certainly don’t want to say he’s done for the season, which could impact their at-large bid chances. While keeping Hemphill’s status vague, Drake would be well-served to keep winning down the stretch.
Clemson (10). Record: 13–5, 7–5 in the ACC. NET ranking: 45th. Bracket Matrix seeding: the third No. 7 seed. The debate: Do the Tigers deserve a mulligan for a January COVID-19 hangover? They were 9–1 in early January, hit a COVID-19 snag, returned 11 days later and were routed three straight games by an average of 24 points. They wheezed past Louisville in an ugly game, then got hammered by 26 points by Duke. Since then: 3–0. So, does Clemson get to write off Jan. 16–30 like a tax deduction?
Colgate (11). Record: 9–1, 9–1 in the Patriot League. NET ranking: 11th. Bracket Matrix seeding: the fourth No. 13 seed. Debate: What exactly does the NET see in the Raiders that nobody else sees? Colgate is a glorious algorithm outlier, ranking in the top 15 in the NCAA’s pet metric despite having beaten only three teams in an abbreviated season: Army three times, Holy Cross four times and Boston U. twice. (The lone loss was to Army on Jan. 3, in a season that began on Jan. 2.) Assuming Colgate wins the Patriot League automatic bid; does the committee give it any kind of bump based on NET allegiance?
THE POWER OF PLAYING FAST
Is there a tempo revolution occurring in the game? That would be a premature pronouncement. But perhaps an evolution. Some notable teams are moving faster than ever at the offensive end, with positive results.
Gonzaga (12) has never played at a faster tempo than it is currently—the Zags’ average offensive possessions last 14.2 seconds according to Ken Pomeroy, third-quickest of any team in the nation. They also happen to be undefeated and ranked No. 1 in the nation. This might be the best Gonzaga team of them all.
“I love playing fast, want to play fast—that’s what we try to do here,” said Bulldogs coach Mark Few (13). “We spend time on it. You’ve got to get the ball out of the net, get it off the glass, and go. We don’t just talk about it; we work on it.”
The only power-conference team faster? Alabama, which is clicking off possessions in 14.1 seconds. The Crimson Tide are dominating the Southeastern Conference and enjoying their best season since 2002.
“All the analytics we look at … you typically get your most efficient shot in the first six seconds of the shot clock,” said ‘Bama coach Nate Oats (14), whose teams at Buffalo played very fast—but never this fast. “Typically, your next-most efficient comes in the second six seconds. The goal is never to be the fastest team in the country; it’s to be the most efficient team in the country.”
Also in the top seven in shortest offensive possession length: Winthrop (15), at 14.7 seconds. The Eagles are 18–1 and all but sewed up the Big South regular-season title with a sweep of Radford over the weekend.
Four other teams the top eight of offensive possession time also have winning conference records and should contend for automatic bids in their respective conference tournaments: Monmouth, Marshall, Bryant and Buffalo.
At the other end of the spectrum, where the slow pokes live, there are the sultans of slow, the Virginia Cavaliers, and not much else. The Cavs check in at 20.1 seconds per offensive possession, which is actually the fastest they’ve been in five years. Still, that’s 344th out of 347. The only other teams in the bottom eight of offensive tempo with winning league records are Texas State (leading the Sun Belt) and Mount Saint Mary’s (second in the NEC).
In terms of recent history, the slowest teams have been more likely to reach the Big Dance than the fastest. Over the last six seasons, the average is 2.5 teams from the top 10 in offensive tempo and 3.8 from the bottom 10. (For 2020, The Minutes used the Bracket Matrix aggregation of the most likely tourney field.)
This season might be a blip, or it could be something more. But the more basketball becomes a spread-the-floor game, the more it makes sense to look for early offense.
“If we can attack them before its five-on-five and they’ve got their help-side coverages, we’re better off,” said Few. “But you have to trust your guys, that they understand a good shot.”
Said Gonzaga senior guard Corey Kispert (16), who leads the Zags in scoring, “Being fast and smart is kind of the perfect storm. Some teams are fast but turn the ball over. We’re fast but try to take good shots and not turn the ball over.”
The other element that can help a team perform both efficiently and quickly on offense: good defense. Alabama, for instance, is No. 1 nationally in defensive efficiency. When the opponent misses shots and turns the ball over, transition opportunities occur.
“The better your defense is, the faster you can play offensively—because you’re playing off stops,” Oats said. “When you’re 114th defensively and you’re taking the ball out of the net all the time, you’re not going to get out in transition.”
In the meantime, two notable programs that are trending the other way in terms of tempo:
North Carolina (17). The school that had its name attached to fast-break offense under Dean Smith—and even accelerated under Roy Williams—is in the midst of a two-season slowdown. The Tar Heels are still pretty fast with the ball, taking just 15.9 seconds per possession, which is 40th nationally. That’s a full second faster than last year, when Carolina was a miserable 14–19. But it’s more dawdling than during the happier times from 2016–19, when the Heels were between 14.6 and 15.4 seconds.
Duke (18). The Blue Devils’ 17 seconds per offensive possession is their slowest since 2017. The fastest Duke team on record, unsurprisingly, was the Zion Williamson-led bunch that averaged 15.5 seconds per possession in 2018–19.
THE RISE OF HOOKEYBALL
One of the pleasures of March college hoops is the proliferation of weekday afternoon games that can serve as a pleasant diversion from work or school. (Or, in plain English, an excuse to slack off.) If there is one small gift the pandemic has given us, it’s the spread of HookeyBall throughout the season. There are weekday afternoon games being played virtually every day.
Rescheduled games are popping up all over the place. This week alone, we have Iowa State at Oklahoma State (19) at 3 p.m. local Tuesday; Boston College at Georgia Tech (20) at noon Wednesday; Marshall at Rice (21) at 2 p.m. Friday; and many others scheduled to tip off at 5 p.m. or earlier.
This is standard operating procedure in many Olympic sports, but relatively rare in men’s basketball. After consulting with conference and school officials, there are several reasons why these have become attractive options.
The biggest and most obvious is that there are little or no fans in the arenas (22)—that reduces the need to wait until they’re off work or out of class, and there is no need for empty parking lots that might otherwise be filled with student parking during the day. A basketball game in an empty gym is simply a much smaller undertaking than one attended by 10,000 or more fans.
Second is that most of these are rescheduled games being fit in around other games on the slate. Example: Louisville (23) hosted Georgia Tech on a Monday afternoon because the Cardinals women’s team already had the KFC Yum! Center booked for a game that night, and the Louisville men’s team was scheduled to play at Syracuse Wednesday night—the more time between the end of the Georgia Tech game and the start of the Syracuse game, the better. (The game at Syracuse ultimately was postponed, and the Cardinals haven’t played since Feb. 1. Life in 2021.)
Third, the campus calendar is crowded and support staff is thin. Fall sports that were delayed until this semester have started, in addition to the ongoing winter sports and the beginning of training and competition for spring teams. Venues are in higher use, with medical and event staff pulled in many directions. That’s one reason why Denver (24) has had multiple noon weekday tipoffs this season.
“We have numerous dates with multiple home events going on and that was the best way to have time for support staff to get set up, clean venues with COVID protocols, and be staffed to run events,” says Denver media relations director Chris Smith.
Fourth—and here’s a quaint notion—it’s often academically advantageous (25) for the visiting teams. Instead of returning to campus from a road game at 4 a.m. or staying over an extra night, teams have a better chance of getting back home at a decent hour and coherently attending classes the next day—in person or online.
And, of course, there are TV considerations. Conferences are eager to provide enough inventory to get full delivery on media rights checks from networks. (The Big East got a re-scheduled Connecticut-Providence (26) game on Fox Sports at 4 p.m. last week, since the network already had the 7 p.m. window booked with NASCAR.) And networks have shown an increasing interest in working these on-the-fly live events into their programming schedule. Instead of airing replays of old games, the ACC Network on Wednesday will have the following lineup: BC-Georgia Tech at noon; North Carolina State at Pittsburgh at 4:30; Syracuse at Louisville at 6:30; and Duke at Wake Forest at 8:30. With production costs lower and announcing teams almost all working from home, expanded live programming is a bonus for the young ACC Network as it works to establish its foothold in the broadcast space.
Bryon Houlgrave/The Register/USA TODAY Sports
LOYOLA, DRAKE AND BEYOND
Valleypalooza, the two-game series between Loyola Chicago and Drake, produced the desired result for the Missouri Valley Conference (27)—a split that helped both teams. The Ramblers dominated on Saturday, then the Bulldogs rallied for a dramatic victory on Sunday. It was exactly what the league needed if it wants more than one team in the Big Dance.
(The postgame Sunday got chippy, with Drake players and staff allegedly running their mouths. "Look at the tape yesterday when we won, walking off the floor," Loyola coach Porter Moser said. "And then look at their players and one of their assistant coaches. Look at them when we were walking off the floor. Two different scenarios when we won walking off the floor and something that was said by one of their assistants and a handful of their players. I'll just leave it at that.”)
Moser opined afterward that “the Valley should unequivocally have two teams, if not more,” in the NCAAs. That’s not the only league outside the Power 6 which have many teams still in contention for at-large bids heading into the final month of play. The list:
The Atlantic 10 (28). This may be the most interesting league of them all to watch down the stretch, Power 6 included. The number of conference games played is all over the place, from Rhode Island at 14 to Saint Louis at five. The NET rankings have VCU at No. 31, Saint Louis at 32, St. Bonaventure at 41, and Richmond at 54—all within range of at-large consideration, if they keep winning. But Davidson and Massachusetts both are 6–2 in league play and have winning records overall. The A-10 should get at least two bids, maybe more, depending how these final weeks shake out.
The Mountain West (29). This is a four-deep league, with the NET rankings giving No. 23 San Diego State an edge over No. 38 Boise State, No. 43 Colorado State and No. 50 Utah State. The Aggies lead the league by a game in the loss column at 11–2 but must play at Boise twice this week. The most manageable remaining schedule belongs to the Aztecs (at Fresno twice, then hosting Boise for two).
The American (30). It’s sketchy lineup behind Houston, with nobody else in the NET top 55. SMU, Memphis and Wichita State are the most likely at-large candidates after the Cougars, but they’re also a combined 1–7 in Quad 1 games. Both the Shockers and Tigers get a shot at Houston down the stretch, games that would greatly enhance their résumés if they can win.
Conference USA (31). There is a muddle of C-USA teams on the fringe of at-large consideration, from Western Kentucky (No. 75 NET) to UAB (79) to Louisiana Tech (86) to Marshall (68) to North Texas (72). The Hilltoppers definitely have the best nonconference wins, over Alabama and Memphis. The Thundering Herd won at Wright State. Everyone should head to the conference tourney thinking they need to win it.
A potpourri of quality mid-major teams (32). Among other leagues, BYU (No. 29 NET) should be a lock with wins away from Provo over St. John’s, San Diego State and Utah State; Belmont (No. 63) is 22–1, hasn’t lost since Dec. 5, and lost several marquee games due to schedule contraction; Wright State (No. 59) is 17–4, with three Horizon League losses by a total of 14 points; And UC Santa Barbara (No. 50) is undefeated in 2021 and 14–3 overall.
FIVE QUESTIONS (AND ONE) WITH A COACH
Each week, The Minutes will ask a coach five questions, then give that coach an opportunity to ask a question of their own. In this installment, The Minutes caught up with Ohio State’s Chris Holtmann (33), whose Buckeyes have won six straight and climbed to the top seed line in the NCAA’s early top 16 reveal.
Question 1: You’ve put together what seems to be an ideal modern roster experienced with a dash of youth, and a blend of players you recruited out of high school and transfers. What’s your philosophy when it comes to putting together a team?
Holtmann: Roster construction has really moved to the top of the list (34) for any college basketball coach right now. It’s a constant challenge to maintain your roster. We want to build in as much versatility as we can, with players that can impact at both ends. It’s taken a while, but after a couple of recruiting classes we’re heading in the right direction.
Question 2: I was critical of your offense a couple of seasons ago, and you basically said, “We’re working on it, give us some time.” Today, you have the No. 4 offense in the country according to Ken Pomeroy. How did you get there?
Holtmann: You weren’t the only one critical. (Laughs.) I was, too. I hated our offense (35). We got to the NCAA tournament [in 2019] based on our defense, and managed to win a game there. It was a unique team that year because we were built around a big post (Kaleb Wesson), and I really did not think that was tenable long term. I did not want to play that way, but our middle years of our roster were in flux at that point after the coaching change [from Thad Matta]. The numbers that year told me what I already knew—you have to be balanced and versatile to have a top 10 offense. We had to open up the floor.
Question 3: You finished your college career at Taylor University in 1994, then started college coaching in 1997. What was young Chris Holtmann doing in those intervening years?
Holtmann: I was an assistant coach at Snider High School (in Fort Wayne, Ind.), and I worked for Campus Life, did some substitute teaching. I was kind of in that in-between stage and honestly wasn’t sure what I wanted to do. My dad was a little antsy, wondering, “When are you going to find a solid career?” I decided I had to get back in [to college basketball].
Question 4: Among other jobs, you were a paperboy as a kid, delivering the Herald-Leader in Lexington, Ky. How was your aim firing the paper at the doorstep?
Holtmann: I broke a few windows in my day (36). I had to follow up with a few knocks on the door to say, “Send us a bill.” My dad had a solid job (as an optician) but didn’t have a raise in seven years. We had a cleaning business in the Lexington area at night, and we delivered papers in the morning. My sister would fold them, and my dad and I took them out and delivered. It was really an important time for us as a family to learn some valuable life lessons.
Question 5: Years ago at an AAU event, when you were at Butler and Tom Crean was at Indiana, I sat between you two while you discussed team policies for cell-phone use. Times have changed a bit since then. What’s your policy at Ohio State?
Holtmann: I went away from what I used to think. Back then it was, “Coach, get them off social media.” That’s not happening. What we try to do is limit consumption. Our one policy—at team meals, no cell phones. You and I remember the days when guys would sit and talk during dinner. I remember being on buses where we would talk for the full three hours of a trip. Now it’s silent for three hours. For today’s athlete, we really try to talk about how social media consumption can impact mental health (37).
Holtman’s question for The Minutes: Is there one interview you haven’t done that you wish you had?
Minutes: Keeping it to college basketball, I would say [former Marquette coach and TV analyst] Al McGuire. He stopped coaching and was nearly finished as a broadcaster before I had a chance to meet him. He was both a great coach and a real character—probably the original colorful color commentator in the sport. Watching him with Dick Enberg and Billy Packer was great.
COACH WHO EARNED HIS COMP CAR THIS WEEK
Scotty Davenport (38), Bellarmine. The Knights are in their first season of Division I basketball—and they are flourishing. After sweeping North Alabama on the road over the weekend, Bellarmine is 13–5 overall, 10–2 in the A-Sun and on a 10-game winning streak. Ineligible for the postseason, the Knights are heading to an end-of-the-month series with Liberty that could decide the league championship. Incredible work after stepping up from D-II.
COACH WHO SHOULD TAKE THE BUS TO WORK
Frank Haith (39), Tulsa. After a solid start to the season, the Golden Hurricane have lost three straight and five of six to slip back to .500 overall and a losing record in the AAC. The three-game skid has all come at home, with consecutive losses to UCF and Tulane particularly disappointing. Tulsa’s only chance at its first NCAA bid since 2016 is to win the league tournament.
BUZZER BEATER
The Minutes remains homebound, so it’s time for fantasy food and drink in places where college basketball matters. If lucky enough to be in Philadelphia and headed to a game at the shrine that is The Palestra, stop pregame at Joe’s Steak and Soda Shop (40) for a cheesesteak and a milkshake. You will have done Philly college hoops correctly.
