Five Teams Off to Disappointing Starts, and What It Means for Their Season Outlook
The top two teams in the most recent men’s AP poll entered the season unranked, and those two programs (Purdue and UConn) have been discussed at length in recent weeks. But for those teams to rise, someone had to fall, and several teams pegged for elite seasons in the preseason have yet to put it all together. Here’s a look at five of the most disappointing teams in the country, what’s gone wrong and what the outlook is for turning things around
1. North Carolina
I’m buying the North Carolina resurgence.
The Tar Heels may not have quite the upside I thought they’d have in the preseason, mostly because their depth hasn’t emerged as hoped and maintaining the defensive intensity of the team’s March run over an entire season isn’t realistic. Still, I’d bet on this team ending up among the top 10–15 teams nationally based on how they’ve played against Ohio State and Michigan. After a slow start to the season, Armando Bacot has flourished lately with 28 points against Ohio State and 26 against Michigan. With Bacot again playing like an All-American and improving shot selection from Caleb Love and RJ Davis, this is starting to look like the Carolina team that made waves last March.
Plus, we know the NCAA tournament setting fits the Heels well. Depth matters slightly less as teams lean on starters, guards who can make plays for themselves off the bounce is incredibly important and experience in big games is invaluable. The Heels have all three. They may hit a few bumps in ACC play, but the last two wins have convinced me to hang on the UNC bandwagon.
Cason Wallace (left) is the only freshman among Kentucky’s top-six scorers.
James Crisp/AP
2. Kentucky
Kentucky arguably has the highest floor of any team of these “underwhelming” teams. When you have Oscar Tshiebwe manning the middle, a lottery pick in the backcourt and athletes everywhere, even a disappointing year is still going to likely end with a team near the top 25. Still, that’s not where anyone associated with Kentucky men’s basketball sets the standard at this blueblood program, and there are some real concerns about this group’s ceiling.
This is nowhere close to Kentucky’s most talented roster under John Calipari; in fact, I’d contend it’s among his least talented groups. That came with a trade-off: Older, experienced transfers like Sahvir Wheeler, Antonio Reeves, CJ Fredrick and Jacob Toppin instead of NBA-bound one-and-dones who need more seasoning. But Kentucky has made its fair share of “freshman mistakes” anyway, plus seems to have little lineup cohesion and can’t out-talent top-tier competition. The Wildcats’ offense just doesn’t feel threatening because of rather limited weapons from three around Tshiebwe and a lack of guards who can create their own shot. Point guard Wheeler has his limitations, but there are some trade-offs when he’s not in the game without another true point guard in the rotation.
The Wildcats are still on the fringes of SEC contention and I’d be surprised if they fall out of the top 25 often, but this team lacks the national title ceiling I thought it had in the preseason.
3. Creighton
Much of Creighton’s recent losing skid could be attributed to poor luck. The Bluejays set themselves up with a brutal schedule in late November and early December, featuring travel even an NBA team would want to avoid and several top-tier matchups. They’ve also endured the loss of star big Ryan Kalkbrenner, an essential piece on both ends) due to illness for three games and some shooting struggles from deep. Creighton is not nearly as bad as its record indicates, but even with a healthy Kalkbrenner wasn’t quite living up to expectations.
With Kalkbrenner back in the middle for the Bluejays, this team goes as Ryan Nembhard takes it. At the Maui Invitational, Nembhard was terrific, averaging more than 20 points and four assists and doing so efficiently as the Jays got wins over Texas Tech and Arkansas before pushing Arizona. In the next five games, he averaged just over eight points per contest and shot only 32% from the field. Topping UConn will be tricky, but Creighton can be as good as anyone else in the Big East if Nembhard plays well.
4. Indiana
Indiana got two impressive wins in November, winning at Xavier before beating North Carolina, but has faltered in December with three losses. Individually, defeats at Rutgers and Kansas and on a neutral court against Arizona aren’t cause for alarm, but IU’s lack of competitiveness in those three games did raise alarms about the Hoosiers’ ability to compete with high-level teams come conference play.
Still, I’d likely consider Indiana one of the top teams in the Big Ten if not for the injury to point guard Xavier Johnson, who is expected to miss significant time after foot surgery. The door is open for him to return late this season, but Johnson being out for a large portion of Big Ten play would further limit the ceiling of this group. Indiana is at its best when Johnson is attacking in ball screens and putting pressure on the defense, opening up opportunities for Trayce Jackson-Davis for lobs and easy finishes. Freshman Jalen Hood-Schifino isn’t a full-time point guard, and bench guards like Tamar Bates and Trey Galloway don’t possess the same explosiveness off the bounce. In games against top-100 opponents, Indiana is more than 30 points per 100 possessions worse with Johnson off the floor this season, per Hoop-Explorer.
This is still an NCAA tournament team, but it’s hard to imagine the Hoosiers climbing much higher than midpack in the Big Ten unless Johnson’s return timeline is faster than anticipated.
5. Villanova
Villanova started 2–5, but has since won its last five games. Part of that turnaround is schedule-related, though wins over Oklahoma and St. John’s should age relatively well for Kyle Neptune’s squad.
The first three weeks of the season were a comedy of errors for the Wildcats. Injuries were a factor, with star freshman Cam Whitmore sidelined until early December due to an offseason hand injury and best player Justin Moore still out after last season’s Achilles injury. Still, the adjustment from Jay Wright to Neptune seemed more stark than feared, with Villanova struggling to produce easy shots offensively thanks to point guard woes and unusual perimeter shooting issues.
The offense has clearly started coming along, though the ‘Cats remain highly dependent on the three-point stroke. One issue Whitmore hasn’t solved has been Villanova’s problems in the paint, where the Wildcats continue to struggle, particularly against high-major opponents. Still, this group at least has the look of a bubble team now after some real concern last month. The ceiling feels limited unless Moore comes back at full strength to give this offense a jolt, especially given the hole Villanova dug itself résumé-wise in November with bad losses to Temple and Portland.
