Four Teams Entered SEC Play 11-1, But Which Gets Out With an NCAA Berth?

Arkansas, Missouri, Mississippi St. and LSU try to climb out of holes and into tournament spotlight

Author:
Kent Smith
Updated:
Jan 25, 2023 7:07 PM EST
Original:
Jan 23, 2023

In this story:

Arkansas Razorbacks

FRISCO, Texas – When SEC play began during the final week of December, there were four teams with only a single loss.

Arkansas, 11-1

LSU, 11-1

Mississippi St., 11-1

Missouri, 11-1

Since then, things haven't exactly gone well for these teams.

They are now a combined 7-21 since conference play started. Still, with such a strong start, they're each still in the hunt for a berth in the NCAA Tournament if they can scratch out a respectable SEC record the rest of the way.

So let's take a look at how these teams got here and what lies before them to determine which can come away with a record favorable to the selection committee heading into the SEC Tournament.

Missouri Tigers (3-4)

Missouri opened SEC play with what was then regarded as a stunning blowout of Kentucky that brought them to 12-1 and had everyone taking the Tigers seriously under new coach Dennis Gates.

Despite a close loss to 12-2 Arkansas in Bud Walton Arena, a win over Vanderbilt in Columbia seemed to put things back on the right track for the Tigers. However, back-to-back road losses to Texas A&M and Florida extended the SEC road record to 0-3.

That SEC home winning streak came to an end also as No. 4 Alabama joined No. 2 Kansas as the only teams to defeat Missouri in Columbia this year.

At the end of a 79-76 win over Arkansas, Missouri's leader in pretty much everything, Kobe Brown, suffered an ankle injury, leaving the Tigers without their primary weapon against Alabama.

The rest of the season will be determined by whether Brown can remain healthy.

With him, the Tigers are as dangerous as they come. Without him, the selection committee will be evaluating a middle of the road NIT squad.

Arkansas Razorbacks (2-5)

Eric Musselman's Razorbacks entered the season with national championship hype, which is most likely the only reason Arkansas is still ranked in the Top 25.

However, the season-ending injury to Trevon Brazile, the absence of Nick Smith for pretty much the entire season, and the slow development of key players put Arkansas in a hole to start SEC play.

Poor outside shooting and an inability to solve zone defenses had Arkansas at 1-5 with its lone win being a tight one over Missouri in Bud Walton.

The Razorbacks have shown improvement. They have led late in the past several games and appear to have finally figured out how to crack a zone defense.

Teams played a lot of mind games with the Razorbacks, getting into their heads early and often. Evidence that Musselman has finally built a level of mental toughness at Arkansas began to show in a loss at Missouri last Wednesday, although 33 fouls managed to do the Hogs in by game's end.

Arkansas bounced back with a relatively flawless win over Ole Miss Saturday to stop the bleeding as the Hogs get set to host an LSU team that upset the Razorbacks in Baton Rouge for the Tigers' only SEC victory.

Missing out on wins at LSU, Vanderbilt and Missouri will greatly hurt this team's chances in the long run. Outside of LSU, Arkansas has the toughest remaining schedule on this list.

Mississippi State Bulldogs (1-6)

Mississippi State gets an edge on LSU mostly because of its upcoming schedule. There's no doubt the Bulldogs' non-conference slate left most around the league feeling like the 11-1 record coming into conference play was a little bloated.

However, the way Mississippi State gave Alabama a solid fight to open the season in Starkville allowed for a bit of intrigue as to how good this team might be.

That didn't last long though. Tennessee dropped a 34-point hammer in Knoxville the following week and an uninspired win over Ole Miss didn't expand confidence that Mississippi State was for real.

However, a close loss to Auburn on the road followed by a respectable showing in the rematch with Tennessee and a comeback against Florida that fell just short have shown improvement in Starkville.

A road game against Alabama Wednesday night won't help the bottom line much and neither will a showdown with No. 14 TCU, but as the calendar turns to February there is a lot of ground to be covered in a positive direction for Mississippi State.

LSU Tigers (1-6)

Matt McMahon appeared to have pulled off a miracle as his duct-taped LSU squad pulled off a huge win over Arkansas to open SEC play in Baton Rouge to extend the Tigers' record to 12-1.

Unfortunately for LSU fans, the next step for the program was straight off a cliff. At that point, the only loss the Tigers had suffered was to No. 13 Kansas State in the Cayman Islands.

Even though LSU lost to Kentucky in Rupp Arena by three in the second game of conference play everyone around the Tigers program felt pretty good.

It's hard to tell whether LSU is as bad as its record indicates. The Tigers have run a gauntlet with games at Texas A&M, at Alabama, and at Kentucky with home games against Auburn, Tennessee, and Arkansas.

Those are all teams that will or could potentially finish the year in the Top 25. Things don't get easier for Matt McMahon's club as they have to head up to Bud Walton.

That trip, along with a trip to Columbia, Missouri followed by a game with Alabama in Baton Rouge in the next couple of weeks make it look like things could get worse for LSU before they get better.

So Who Will Finish With the Best SEC Record?

The answer to this one is pretty simple provided Kobe Brown is able to return fully healthy.

While Arkansas may prove to be the better team in the long run come tournament time, Missouri has a much more manageable schedule the rest of the way in the regular season.

Two games each remain with Ole Miss, LSU and Mississippi State. The Big 12 draw is against Iowa State.

There's a stretch in the middle of February where the Tigers go to Tennessee and Auburn before hosting Texas A&M, but that's the only challenge the rest of the way.

There's no reason Missouri can't finish with 23 wins to close the regular season if Brown comes back fully healthy. That would be pretty hard for the selection committee to ignore.

As for Arkansas, the Razorbacks have trips to Alabama, Texas A&M, Tennessee, Kentucky and No. 21 Baylor. The Hogs would have to win at least two of those road games to have a shot at keeping up with Missouri in the final regular season standings.

It will be a difficult task for the Razorbacks to produce enough wins to squeeze into the NCAA Tournament considering the remaining schedule. However, if they can get in, this is a team that can once again make a lot of noise.

As for Mississippi State and LSU, the Bulldogs seem poised for a stepping stone Texas A&M type NIT run while the Tigers' coaching staff looks forward to a proper recruiting season that doesn't require replacing the entire team again.