Has Baylor's Dave Aranda Coached His Way Off the Hot Seat?
In this story:
A lot can change in a month, especially in the topsy-turvy world of college football. Every season features extreme fluctuation from myriad programs. Lane Kiffin, the crowned prince of Baton Rouge, can watch as LSU goes down in flames against his former team, Ole Miss. Then the following Saturday, that same Ole Miss squad can get its brakes beaten off by Florida, which proceeds to endure the same humiliation a week later against Missouri.
While the stakes look a little different, the Baylor Bears have taken a comparably unpredictable rollercoaster ride in 2026. After a heartbreaking 17-16 loss in the opener, the program has won four straight and remains undefeated in conference play. The Bears' most recent outing, a decisive 55-19 road victory over the Arizona State Sun Devils, saw their defense generate three takeaways and their QB exorcise some demons.
Not only has the success reset expectations for the Bears this year, but it has also reshaped the narrative around their head coach, Dave Aranda.
Preseason hot-seat discourse
Before the season even began, Aranda seemed on thin ice. He oversaw the program go from winning a Big 12 championship in 2021 to producing just one winning season and a 22-28 overall record in the four years that followed. The defense, Aranda's calling card, had degenerated into a bottom-fifth group in the nation. In an apparent last-ditch effort to reverse the unit's fortunes, he relinquished play-calling duties to his new DC, Joe Klanderman.
Still, that didn't prevent the pitchforks from coming out for Aranda. He spent the spring and summer under fire from national pundits, some of whom suggested that Baylor would have changed head coaches after 2025 if not for the departure of athletic director Mack Rhoades.
Regardless of the precise circumstances, Aranda received another season at the helm. The program hit the transfer portal hard, luring former five-star quarterback prospect DJ Lagway to Waco after a two-year stint in Gainesville. To help the new starting signal-caller, Baylor also portaled multiple starting offensive linemen, slot receiver Gavin Freeman, and contributors at all levels of the defense.
Defensive turnaround
While Baylor's offense took some time to find its footing, the defense hit cruising altitude quickly. The unit held Byrum Brown and the Auburn Tigers to just 17 points in Week 1, then allowed only 35 combined points over the ensuing three games. That set up the Bears for their breakout performance this past weekend on the road against Arizona State, a contest that kicked off after 9:30 p.m. Waco time.
Entering Week 6, the Baylor defense ranks 29th nationally by ESPN's SP+ metric. This improvement transpired despite losing two senior starters to season-ending injuries: safety Jacob Redding before the opener and defensive tackle Devonte Tezino after two games. Along with the Bears' stellar special teams, the defense has carried the program so far in 2026.
And that ultimately reflects well on Aranda. While he no longer calls the plays, he still has final say on the defensive game plan and has shaped how the unit operates. That the defense has rebounded so significantly and so quickly in 2026 provides critical capital for Aranda with the decision-makers in Waco.
Lagway's emergence as a difference-maker
Lagway headlined Baylor's offseason additions, but his on-field play didn't match the expectations in September. While a severe ankle sprain sidelined him for multiple games, he still made mistakes before suffering the injury. Lagway's fumble on the play on which he initially hurt his ankle directly led to points, and his poorly placed ball at the goal line prevented the Bears from emerging victorious that week.
Even after Lagway returned from injury, he looked uneven at best. He also lacked the mobility that makes him such a difficult signal-caller to defend.
"There was a great field goal by Rhett [Armstrong], it was at 54 yards, and we were trying to get closer to it," Aranda said during the postgame press conference. "I think if we're in a position where we weren't fighting back from an injury, he probably runs it there, DJ does. I think he threw it out of bounds where he could have scrambled or ran.
"You want the full opened-up thing. We have to work our way toward that."
Aranda's vision for Lagway finally came to fruition this past Saturday. The quarterback looked decisive and dangerous, compiling 306 passing yards and four touchdowns. He also added an 11-yard score on a scramble. Lagway's standout performance earned him Big 12 Offensive Player of the Week honors.
And though Lagway and his offensive supporting cast deserve the lion's share of the credit, he wouldn't play for Baylor if not for Aranda's influence. Lagway acknowledged as much in an exclusive interview with Baylor Bears On SI last month.
"I've known coach Aranda since I was a freshman in high school," Lagway said. "Being able to have that relationship with him has been great. So, when I got up there on a visit, everything just kind of made sense to me and my family."
It remains unclear how long Lagway, once considered a top NFL prospect, will stay at Baylor. However, if he continues to perform at such a high level, Aranda can leverage that roster-management win with the athletic department.
What else must Aranda do to end the hot-seat talk?
Aranda has drastically improved his standing at Baylor over the last five weeks, but he hasn't quite navigated his way out of the woods. The Bears need to capitalize while their schedule looks favorable -- their next four opponents currently have just two combined victories over FBS programs with winning records -- and they probably need to avoid going 0-3 against BYU, Texas Tech, and Houston to close the season. Dropping all of those contests could leave a bad taste in the mouths of any Baylor stakeholders who will determine Aranda's future.
Still, the Bears appear likely to spend the rest of October favored to win their matchups, and the rest of the Big 12's upper crust has shown warts. If Baylor manages a win over BYU, Texas Tech, or Houston, Aranda could plausibly keep his job even if his team splits its other remaining games.
So, while Aranda hasn't coached his way off the hot seat yet, he has positioned himself to put that discussion to bed in the near future.
Sign up for our free newsletter and follow us on X and Facebook for the latest news.
Add us as a preferred source on Google
Jason B. Hirschhorn is an award-winning sportswriter and member of both the Pro Football Writers of America and the Football Writers Association of America. He is a co-founder of The Leap, a Green Bay Packers newsletter. His work has also appeared at NFL.com, SB Nation, Sports Illustrated, and other major outlets.
Follow by_JBH