Survive and Advance: Can BYU Keep Its Big 12 Hopes Alive Without LJ Martin?

BYU's Big 12 title hopes took a major hit on Wednesday. News leaked that LJ Martin will be out four to six weeks due to the lower-body injury he suffered against TCU. According to ESPN's Pete Thamel, Martin will be out "at least a month", including a potential top 10 matchup against Notre Dame next week.

Sources: No. 8 BYU’s star tailback, LJ Martin, will be out for at least a month with a lower body injury he suffered against TCU. He was the Big 12 offensive player of the year in 2025. He’ll miss four to six weeks, including the home against No. 3 Notre Dame on Oct. 17. pic.twitter.com/hsDEEUz9Ri
— Pete Thamel (@PeteThamel) October 7, 2026

In this article, we will look over the next four to six weeks to analyze how BYU can keep its Big 12 title hopes alive until LJ Martin returns.

BYU's Schedule Over the Next 4 to 6 Weeks

Assuming the timeline that Thamel repored is accurate, Martin will be out for BYU's next four games.

vs Iowa State
vs Notre Dame
@ UCF
vs Arizona State

He could also miss the next two games, headlined by the rivalry game against Utah.

@ Utah
vs Baylor

Even with LJ Martin, it was going to take a great showing from BYU to take down the Fighting Irish. Without Martin, it's going to be an even greater challenge to beat Notre Dame. Fortunately for BYU, the Notre Dame game doesn't impact the Big 12 race. While the Notre Dame game is still critical for the perception of BYU and the rest of the conference, holding serve in conference games is now the top priority.

And style points? Style points go out the window. The Cougars control their own destiny to the College Football Playoff. The committee can't keep BYU out of the playoff if it wins the Big 12, even if every win is as ugly as last Saturday's win against TCU.

There is a path to beat every Big 12 team on the October schedule even without Martin in the lineup. In fact, BYU will probably be favored in all three games against Iowa State, UCF, and Arizona State. The goal is straightforward: survive and advance until November, then hope Martin is back for a pivotal rivalry game against Utah.

Fortunately for BYU, two of the next three games are two of BYU's easier games on the schedule. FPI gives BYU an 84% and a 90% chance to beat Iowa State and Arizona State, respectively. On paper, the Biggest challenge will be a long road trip to UCF after the Notre Dame game. FPI gives BYU 59% chance to beat UCF in Orlando.

If BYU survives with a 3-0 record in its next three conference games, the Cougars will be among the top two or three contenders to win the league. BYU would still be in the conference title race with a loss to Utah. Per FPI, there is a 45% chance that BYU will beat all three of Iowa State, UCF, and Arizona State.

If the Cougars go 2-1, they will still be in the conference title race when they head to Utah, although they would probably need to win that game to make it to Arlington. There is an 89% chance that BYU will win at least two out of its next three games, per FPI.

If the Cougars stumble and lose two out of the next three, they will likely be out of the conference title race by the end of the regular season.

It all starts on Friday night against Iowa State. BYU is favored by multiple scores in that game and Martin's injury status has been public, meaning the betting lines have accounted for Martin's injury already.

The Cougars have to find ways to move the football without LJ Martin. Last season when Martin went down, the Cougars leaned on Bear Bachmeier's throwing ability. Bachmeier rose to the occassion in games against Iowa State and Georgia Tech. We expect more of the same this season.

Sign up to our free newsletter and follow us on X and Facebook for the latest news.

Add us as a preferred source on Google