Cincinnati Basketball Keys to the Game: @ Oklahoma Sooners

Cincinnati dropped the first contest this season 69-65.

Author:
Russ Heltman
Mar 4, 2024 11:30 AM EST

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CINCINNATI — Round two with the Oklahoma Sooners awaits Cincinnati as the Bearcats face another must-win game in pursuit of an NCAA Tournament at-large entry.

UC lost to Oklahoma at home 69-65 in January and has to get a split on Tuesday. The Sooners enter this game as 68.4% favorites on ESPN's Matchup Predictor. They are ranked 41st in the NET rankings and 37th on KenPom, while Cincinnati is 45th and 47th.

When Oklahoma Has The Ball

Disciplined defending in a road environment is crucial in this game, as UC faces a team it's pretty even with across the board. OU's offense sits in the bottom half of most Big 12 statistics and has seen a rough fall to earth in conference play compared to the non-con.

Leading scorer Javian McCollum (13.6 Pts, 2.6 Reb, 3.4 Ast) has crashed to earth a bit, posting just a 35.5% shooting mark in the Big 12. He had a rough game against UC (6-of-16 FGs) and repeating that is crucial because he's found other efficient options to pick up the slack from Otega Oweh (11.6 Pts, 3.9 Reb, 1.1 Ast) and his own regression to the mean.

Wings Jalon Moore (10.7 Pts, 6.5 Reb, 0.4 Ast) and Rivaldo Soares (10.6 pts, 5.6 Rebs in conference play), have popped with both players easily leading the team in Player Efficiency Rating over the conference period.

Soares could be the swing point in this game. The sophomore's leveled up his play the most of any Sooner lately and has been a big reason for the uptick in free throws over the past few weeks. Oklahoma attempts 21.3 free throws per game in the Big 12 (third) and Soares has the highest free throw rate of the group (67 free throws for every 100 shots).

Moore and Soares will hunt the most efficient shots and try to will trips to the line across the whole roster. Cincinnati cannot foul like they did against KSU and let those two stay efficient at the same time. The good thing for UC is they rank third among Big 12 defenses allowing just 17.4 free throws per game.

When Cincinnati Has The Ball

Can the Bearcats get continued great guard play like it got from Day Day Thomas, John Newman III, and Simas Lukošius on Saturday? It's the biggest success gauge down the stretch.

Cincinnati's big men have been the most consistent factor on the team and this is a tournament-level squad when all three of those perimeter players show up and impact things. The Bearcats got 39 points across some nice outings at times from them in Game 1 against OU. Roughly 45 points or more from them should land Cincinnati a crucial road win.

Getting their notable impact from behind the three-point line won't be easy. Oklahoma employs a wing-heavy lineup that switches very well and defends the three-point line better than almost every other Big 12 team (30.8% allowed, second). Cincinnati only shot 7-of-26 from deep in the first outing, and needs to either get over 35% on low attempts or outweigh the low efficiency with 9-10 makes at least.

The size and depth advantage for UC should help them stay around the 48% two-point mark they had in the first game, the triples will swing things from there. Any kind of free throw success won't hurt in this one either, just don't expect it to help Cincinnati as the worst Big 12 FT shooting team in conference play (68.1%, 14th).

The home whistle could play a massive factor in this game.

Prediction: 70-67 Oklahoma

The Sooners make just enough free throws to sweep the season series and effectively end any hopes of an at-large bid for Cincinnati.

I would be a little surprised to see Dan Skillings Jr. suit up in this game with such a quick turnaround, and it will greatly hurt UC's offense shooting-wise and on the glass.

Oklahoma shoots 22-plus free throws and holds Cincinnati to just five made threes on the road as the Bearcats continue searching for consecutive wins in the Big 12.

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