Cincinnati Bearcats Basketball Storylines: At West Virginia Mountaineers

CINCINNATI — Cincinnati basketball (15-10, 5-9) is rolling into another road trip on Wednesday against West Virginia (15-10, 6-8), looking to avenge arguably their worst showing of the season in a Mountaineers victory 63-50 on Feb. 2.

Cincinnati enters the contest ranked 45th in the NET and 54th on KenPom, while West Virginia is 44th in the NET and 46th on KenPom. Bart Torvik gives the Bearcats a 27% chance to win, with WVU projected to prevail 64-59.

The all-time series is tied 12-12 after West Virginia put a stranglehold on Cincinnati's offense a few weeks ago. Cincinnati has to go 5-1 down the stretch to have a strong chance of making the 2025 NCAA Tournament, which they've never done in any stretch of Big 12 play during their two seasons as members.

The game airs at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN2.

"We're disappointed because we thought we had our chances tonight," UC head coach Wes Miller said about Saturday's 81-70 loss to Iowa State. "There were things I was proud of (today). The defensive glass in the second half was a differentiator, and that was very obvious. Sometimes it's not simple as to how you win or lose a game. There are a lot of complexities to it. This was a simple one tonight, and that was a massive difference in this game. We had some good defensive possessions and couldn't clean the glass. It's the Big 12, and (Iowa State) has only lost once here in two years, and we have to regroup and be ready for the next one."

Offensive Storyline: Bounceback And Boost Jizzle James

Someone besides Jizzle James has to be a consistent scoring option on Wednesday night, or they may not crack 60 points in either West Virginia matchup this season.

The Mountaineers rank 18th in adjusted defensive efficiency on KenPom and completely stopped the Bearcats unit in the first matchup. James is red-hot right now, becoming the first UC player to post 24-plus points across a three-game stretch since Deonta Vaughn in 2008. He's scoring from all areas of the floor, but ISU gave the blueprint for WVU in the second half Saturday.

They hounded James, made him foul out for the first time in his career, and no one else on offense could really get anything going. He was the only Bearcat to shoot over 40% on six-plus shots. A return to sniping from Day Day Thomas would be welcomed (4-13 shooting on Saturday), but even then, it may not be enough if Cincinnati's depth is compromised.

Arrinten Page hasn't scored in February and he got hurt early in the game against ISU to end up playing less than a minute, all while Simas Lukošius got hurt in the second half with what appeared to be a shoulder injury and didn't play the final six minutes. Page isn't bringing much on offense, but it eliminates basically all frontcourt depth with him limited, and Cincinnati's offense and defense get even tighter without Lukošius's shooting gravity. CJ Fredrick, Tyler Betsey, and Josh Reed will have to play more and step up big time if the other two can't give it a go three days later.

It's a brutal spot for a Cincinnati offense that already struggles in the half-court and has relied on the three to great avail of late (10-plus triples in three-straight games). West Virginia is elite at defending the three (28.9% allowed this season, seventh-best nationally, 29% allowed in conference play, second in Big 12).

Defensive Storyline: Cap Javon Small To 22 Points

West Virginia goes by way of the Big 12's leading scorer. They are 7-1 this season when Small scores 23 points or more, and still beat Cincinnati thanks to great defense despite him scoring 19 on Feb. 2 with a 6-14 shooting mark.

He dominates the ball and wears defenses down with a strong analytical diet of threes and layups. The heady point guard also dished nine assists in that game, utilizing his scoring gravity to yo-yo Cincinnati's defense enough for a double-digit win. WVU doesn't use a lot of players in its rotation and relies on Small heavily, with a 27.5% usage rate (sixth in the Big 12).

They have to smartly force the ball out of his hands, avoid fouling as much as they did against Iowa State (Small has shot 140 free throws this season, second in Big 12), and force long two-point shots and threes from anyone but him. WVU is shooting just 30.3% from deep in conference play (13th in the Big 12).

If Cincinnati can limit Small and force a heavy diet of outside shots from his teammates, they can keep NCAA Tournament at-large hope alive this season.

Prediction: 68-67 Mountaineers

Season Prediction Record: 20-5

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