Preview: Cincinnati Prepares for Defensive Showcase Against South Florida Bulls

Cincinnati needs a bounce back effort after the 22-point loss to Houston on Sunday.

Author:
Russ Heltman
Updated:
Feb 8, 2022 3:31 PM EST

CINCINNATI — Wednesday begins a busy stretch of games for Wes Miller and the Bearcats men's basketball team. Cincinnati (15-7, 5-4) travels to face South Florida (7-14, 2-7) for the first of six games in two weeks.

The Bearcats can't afford to drop a result against USF or Tulsa if they want to keep their hopes of an at-large NCAA Tournament bid alive. Those chances took a big hit in the blowout loss to Houston, but they aren't completely out of the running just yet.

Although, a loss to South Florida will be the final nail in the coffin. Cincinnati enters the game ranked 78th in KenPom, while South Florida is the worst AAC team in the metric at No. 246. The next closest team to USF is East Carolina at No. 185. ESPN's matchup predictor has Cincinnati winning 71% of the time.

Cincinnati leads the all-time series 34-9, including a 10-1 mark in the AAC.

UC has struggled offensively over the past two weeks after dropping 90 points on Tulsa. South Florida is facing big-time struggles as well on a team that just doesn't have many scoring options. USF is currently 349th out of 358 Division I teams this season in offensive efficiency (90.6)

The Bulls have gone over 65 points just twice since the start of 2022. South Florida is shooting 38% from the field in conference play (ninth) and 24.8% from deep (last). On the season, USF has the second-worst effective field goal rate in the nation (41.3%).

The matchup against Cincinnati is not favorable for this offense. UC owns the third-best effective field goal rate allowed nationally (42.6%) and is 30th in defensive efficiency (93.8).

Guards Jamir Chaplin (team-high 11.9 points, 4.4 rebounds in conference play) and Caleb Murphy (10.9 points, team-high 2.9 assists in conference) are the only players averaging double-figures during the AAC slate. The latter has been much more efficient than the former.

Chaplin is the only consistent scoring option Cincinnati needs to worry about in Tampa. The 6-foot-5, 196-pound guard has an optimal scoring size and is the lone player keeping USF from being the definitive least efficient shooting team in the country.

He ranks 30th in the AAC with a 44.6% season-long eFG rate, about three points higher than Murphy (41.4%), whose efficiency has sunk in the past two months. The Bulls leading assist man is posting a 38.5% eFG mark in conference play.

Close to zero outside shooting is capping a lot of South Florida's offensive ceiling, and not even Chaplin has been able to find his game on that front. The Bulls aren't just bad at three-point shooting, they are entering early-season-Memphis-turnovers-level bad.

South Florida is shooting 23.8% from deep this season and 24.8% in conference play. This is the biggest reason why their team eFG% is so terrible—they can't harness the sport's great equalizer. To put the abysmal showing into perspective, you have to go back to the 2006-07 Iona Gaels team to find a school that shot worse from outside over a full season.

The gap between USF and Green Bay at No. 357 is the same gap separating No. 357 and No. 340. It's a mess. As the team's best shooter in conference action, DJ Patrick, is making just 34.8% of his outside shots on just 2.9 attempts.

While South Florida's high-volume shooter should probably think twice about chucking up 5.8 attempts per game. Javon Greene is hitting 28.3% of those triple tries, and the shots inside the arc aren't much better. Greene is shooting from 29.7% from two-point range and just 68.4% from the free-throw line.

Brian Gregory's team is arguably the worst shooting team of any Division I program. They are 348th in two-point percentage (43.8%), last from outside, and 341st in FT percentage (65%). So how has this team won games? Defense, Defense, Defense.

South Florida plays well-connected team defense and hounds opponents for 40 minutes. As much as this offense favors Cincinnati's defense, the opposite is true on the other end. USF does a decent job of forcing turnovers, and teams have rarely gotten hot against them for long stretches.

Greene (team-high 1.9 steals) and forward Corey Walker (1.5 steals) have been critical factors in the Bulls squeezing out extra possessions towards a 16.9% opponent turnover rate (151st). The bottom line is this team works its tail off to earn every victory by causing havoc. That's evident in opponents shooting 40.8% on them this season (60th), and having 12.1% of their shots blocked (58th).

Cincinnati needs to bring the pain to South Florida in this game. The Bulls are glad to have teams use a full shot clock and try to be perfect against their aggressive defense. USF ranks 310th in adjusted pace (65.1 possessions) and will try to keep this game in the 50s.

The Bearcats need to get USF moving in transition and force all of the Bulls offense to come from outside. Plenty of UC fastbreaks and South Florida three-point attempts should spell good things for Miller's team in a game they simply cannot afford to drop.

Tip-off from the University of South Florida is set for 7 p.m. ET Wednesday night on ESPN+.

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