Preview: Tulsa Comes to Fifth Third Arena Looking for First AAC win

Cincinnati is 3-2 to start AAC play.

Author:
Russ Heltman
Jan 19, 2022 7:00 AM EST

CINCINNATI — The Cincinnati Bearcats (15-3, 3-2) are making a case as the AAC's second-best team after a 2-0 stretch in the conference over the past seven days. They'll need to continue making statements in their only game this week against the Tulsa Golden Hurricane (6-9, 0-4).

Frank Haith's team is on a four-game losing streak, with the four disappointments decided by a combined 15 points. Tulsa enters the game No. 134 in KenPom, while Cincinnati sits at No. 67. ESPN's matchup predictor has Cincinnati winning 77.3% of the time.

Tulsa can't seem to close out a conference game in the final moments, but they profile as a team closer to .500 than they currently sit. They rank 148th in adjusted offense (104.6) and 142nd in adjusted defense (102) but are 343rd out of 358 teams in luck (-.131).

Cincinnati's defensive unit is hoping to keep that unlucky stretch going against a team that thrives on veteran guard play and the three ball. Tulsa's biggest strength is its strike-from-anywhere outside shooting—its leading scorers are a big reason why.

Forward Jeriah Horne (team-high 17.2 points, team-high 7.5 rebounds) and guard Sam Griffin (15.2 points, 1.9 assists) are flamethrowers on the outside, liable to pull up anywhere past halfcourt. Tulsa creates 31.1% of its points from beyond the arc (186th) and hits 35.1% of those outside shots (108th).

Horne (40%) and Griffin (37% from three) are the team leaders in three-point attempts. They drive this offense from the outside and have accounted for 48.4% of Tulsa's points in conference play.

Everything starts with Horne who will bring a physical, three-level presence to Thursday's game. Horne does it all on both ends of the floor. His 7.5 rebounds per game lead the AAC; he is 11th in blocks per game (1), fifth in field goal rate (45%), fourth in free throw% (81.5%), and 11th in steals per game (1.4).

All of that while averaging the third-most minutes in the conference (34.25). Horne's been a gladiator this season and takes care of the ball better (11.1% TO rate) than any Golden Hurricane player besides Griffin (8.8% TO rate).

The 6-foot-3 guard transferred from UT-Arlington this past offseason and hasn't taken much time to adjust in Tulsa. Griffin has an even brighter green light than Horne and completely warps the on-floor balance when he is cooking from outside.

The game plan is clear in this one: deny Horne and Griffin the ball as much as possible and make them work hard for every basket. We know Cincinnati has the profile to stop a high-variance outside shooting team.

UC ranks 91st on the season in opponent three-point percentage (31.1%). They are currently last in conference play allowing 40% from deep, but they just outscored Wichita 30-9 in that department on Sunday. Cincinnati's deep defense is much closer to the non-conference figure than the current mark in AAC play.

Cincinnati's largest advantage in this game is size. UC ranks 13th in effective height, while Tulsa sits at 213th and sports just three players over 6-foot-3 in its nine-man rotation. Those issues lead to big problems on the glass.

Tulsa ranks 349th nationally in total rebounding (30.9), and it hasn't got much better four games into the AAC slate (32.3, last in AAC). The Golden Hurricane struggle to create extra chances on the glass but keep an eye on their sneaky hands.

Tulsa ranks 84th in steals (7.9) and is the best AAC team in that regard so far (8.5). Horne (1.4) leads the way on a team that likes to create havoc and then settle into its offense on the other end (290th in adj. tempo).

Once again, UC sports the profile to limit opposing steals. Mika Adams-Woods owns the best A/TO ratio in the country (5.33) by a significant margin and helps with ball handling duties. UC has the 14th-best turnover rate in the country (12.6%) and is 65th in steal rate allowed (8.1%).

Anyway this game is sliced—Cincinnati should win. They are playing better, have more depth, and all of the characteristics of a team built to stop this kind of opponent. UC's next three foes all rank outside the top-125 in KenPom before a two-game gauntlet against Memphis and Houston.

The time is now for Cincinnati to prove they are the second-best team in a muddy AAC. Thursday's home contest tips off at 9 p.m. ET on ESPNU.

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