Preview: UC Completes Regular Season at Southern Methodist

Cincinnati has won 10-straight games against SMU, but are currently on a four-game losing streak.

Author:
Russ Heltman
Mar 2, 2022 2:00 PM EST

CINCINNATI — The Cincinnati Bearcats (17-13, 7-10) close the 2021-22 regular season against Southern Methodist (20-7, 11-4) on Thursday in game two of the Texas swing. Both teams are trying to put the pieces back together after blowouts against Houston.

The Cougars are the AAC's regular season champions, and SMU is pacing behind them with the second-best record in the conference. Cincinnati will keep a streak rolling on Thursday. UC has lost four in a row but has also won 10 straight games against SMU. The Bearcats are 17-5 all-time against SMU as they try to end the regular season on a high note.

SMU comes into the contest ranked 58th in KenPom, while Cincinnati sits at No. 103. ESPN's matchup predictor has SMU winning 85.7% of the time.

Tim Jankovich shaped his latest SMU team into one of the more balanced units in the country. They are essentially a discount version of Houston when diving deeper into the numbers. SMU plays at a decently-fast pace (117th in adjusted tempo) and is top-70 nationally in offensive (110.9, 57th) and defensive efficiency (97.9, 66th).

The Mustangs do a stand-up job attacking the rim and filling it up from deep. The two most efficient ways to score points in basketball are on threes and free throws. SMU is 56th in three-point shooting (36.4%) and 59th in made free throws (14.6 FTs). Tack on the No. 1 defensive rebounding mark in the conference this season, and you get a high-powered attack.

The Weathers Brothers have a lot to do with all of those impressive marks. Marcus (14.1 points in the conference, team-leading 7.8 rebounds) is the engine for this team, especially on offense, where he boasts the third-best offensive rating in the conference (115.7).

It's not hard to see why; Marcus has the sixth-best effective FG% in the AAC (57.5%), 11th-best offensive rebound rate (7.7%), and the 16th-best turnover rate (14.7%). Houston stifled him to eight points on 33% shooting on Sunday and he'll be looking to bounce back in a big way.

At 6-foot-5, 215 pounds, Marcus angles his large frame into the right positions constantly when he doesn't have the ball and is lightning quick on offensive put-back opportunities. He is one of the best sharpshooters in the conference, hitting 41.2% of his 2.3 attempts per game. That would rank first in the AAC if he averaged two attempts across the whole campaign.

His brother, Michael, is no slouch either averaging 11.5 points and 5.8 rebounds in conference play. Michael is slightly smaller at 6-foot-3, 175 pounds, but he brings a similar tenacity on the glass. He is top-25 in the conference for both offensive (5.4%, 23rd in AAC) and defensive rebounding rate (16%, 20th).

Both Weathers Brothers shoot over 37% from beyond the arc, but they aren't the go-to three-point artists. That title belongs to Kendric Davis (team-high 17.6 points in conference play, team-high four assists) and Emmanuel Bandoumel (10.8 points in conference play, 3.7 rebounds).

Davis is the lead guard on this Mustangs team and, like his other rotation members, is doing it rather efficiently. He is seventh among AAC players with a 54.2 eFG% and is 13th in three-point percentage on the full season (36.1%).

Stop this guard, and you have a great chance to kill the whole SMU offense. Davis is integral to drawing opposing defensive attention and making quick ensuing passes to open Mustangs. He ranks fifth in usage rate during conference play (27.1%) and eighth in individual assist rate (25.7%). The intelligent guard picks his spots on the money during most possessions, and that's something UC needs to stay on top of.

The Bearcats commit 17.4 fouls per game this year (122nd nationally) and allow the third-most free throw makes in conference play (13.8). Davis feeds off of contact. He ranks third with 5.4 fouls drawn per 40 minutes in conference play while being fifth in FT rate (48%) and sixth in percentage (83.5% on FT attempts).

Bandoumel won't be punishing Cincinnati too badly at the FT line (1.8 FT attempts per game), but he will make a dent with SMU's favorite weapon: the three-ball. This Canadian senior is shooting 37.4% from outside (eighth in AAC) on a team-high 6.1 attempts per game. Running Bandoumel closer to the restricted area is a must on Thursday—he is the rare player who shoots better from outside than he does from two-point range (35.8% on 3.5 attempts).

It's no shock that the third-best outside shooting team in AAC play is led by four strong shooters. That's the contest on Thursday—it's pretty simple: hold SMU under 30% from outside, and UC has a great chance to win. The Mustangs shot 29.6% from outside in their loss to Cincinnati earlier this season and are 2-4 in conference play when they shoot under 30% from three.

Cincinnati is allowing the fewest three-point attempts in conference play, so there is a matchup fit to be had. How they utilize that advantage—while keeping up their defensive intensity for 40 minutes—remains to be seen.

Thursday's game tips off at 7 p.m. ET on ESPNU.

Make sure you bookmark All Bearcats for the latest news, exclusive interviews, film breakdowns and so much more!

You May Also Like:

Desmond Ridder: 'I Think I Should be the First Quarterback off the Board'

Three Man Weave: Houston Punishes Cincinnati 71-53

Desmond Ridder Not Ranked on Latest NFL Draft Big Board

Ahmad 'Sauce' Gardner Moves Into Top Five of Latest 2022 NFL Draft Prospect Rankings

Recruiting Roundup: UC Sends out Offers to Three-Star OT and Four-Star WR

Recruiting Roundup: UC Loses Commitment from 2023 Offensive Tackle; Offer 2023 Four-Star Offensive Lineman

Watch: ESPN's Matt Bowen Breaks Down Desmond Ridder's NFL Traits

Weekly NET: Bearcats Clinging to Top-100 Status After 1-2 Week

Report: Cincinnati Partners With Brandr to Expand NIL Opportunities