Preview: Wes Miller Seeking First AAC-Road Victory at Wichita State

Cincinnati is 2-2 in the AAC after beating ECU 79-71 on Wednesday.

Author:
Russ Heltman
Updated:
Jan 14, 2022 3:09 PM EST

CINCINNATI — Cincinnati (12-5, 2-2) got back to .500 in AAC play on Wednesday, and are now in store for a different kind of matchup on the road against Wichita State (9-6, 0-3).

The Shockers battle UC in Kansas on Sunday afternoon as a team desperate for its first conference win of the season. Cincinnati is ranked 74th in KenPom—while Wichita State sits at No. 86. Despite the edge in KenPom ranking, ESPN's matchup predictor has Wichita State winning 67.6% of the time.

Wes Miller's squad played a high-scoring game in Memphis for their initial road test in the AAC—this one has the makings of a rock fight.

The Shockers are one of the better defensive teams in the country, allowing 64.5 points per game (77th). They rank even better when looking deeper than the raw PPG. WSU is tied for 37th in adjusted defensive efficiency (95.3) and 46th in forced turnover rate (21.7%).

One of the biggest factors in that sound ball pressure is leading scorer Tyson Etienne (15 points, 2.2 rebounds, 2.1 assists), who is tied for the team-high with 1.3 steals per game. Etienne and the Shockers play a similar hounding-style as Cincinnati, with fewer players in the rotation.

Etienne leads the way at 33.8 minutes per game and relies on his defense to help buoy an inefficient offensive profile. The guard is sixth on the team in effective FG% (44.4%) and is shooting just 34.9% overall. His biggest strength is ball handling, sporting the lowest turnover rate in WSU's rotation (11.7%).

At 6-foot-2, 200 pounds, Etienne has the frame to score at all three levels of the floor and gets to the line at the second-highest rate of any player on the nation's 111th ranked team by free throw attempts (18.9). Etienne's shooting woes mirror Wichita's issues as a team—the Shockers are 326th in shooting percentage (40%) and 289th in effective FG rate (46.7%).

Wichita makes up for that on the margins, whether it's steals (7.6, 104th), offensive rebounds (11.5, 70th), blocks (4.9, 40th), or made free throws (13.9, 85th). Isaac Brown's team grinds through low-percentage shooting games with these tools—but they've been halted in conference play.

Their defense hasn't been enough to overcome a three-game streak scoring less than 70 points. WSU's strength has fallen off a cliff recently as well. They've allowed 75.3 points in their last three games (ninth in the AAC). Remember those margins I mentioned WSU had won all year? They are all down in conference play except offensive rebounding.

Center Morris Udeze (11.2 points, 5.5 rebounds) leads the team in offensive rebounding (1.9 per game). Bully Udeze, and you get a much different defensive intensity from this WSU team. Of the players averaging at least 20 minutes per game, Udeze (6-foot-8) is the only Shocker over 6-foot-6.

In terms of inside help, 6-foot-11 center Kenny Pohto could see a lot more run to even the 14-184 ranking disparity between these teams in effective height. The freshman isn't trending in the right direction three games into conference play.

Pohto owns the highest effective FG% on the team for the season (55.5%), but that is down to the fourth-worst mark among the Shockers in conference action (35%). He's been a shell of the player we saw over the first two months of the campaign—averaging 3.3 points to 7.1 points out of conference. He still has the top PER (player efficiency rating) of any Shocker on the season by 3.1 points (21.5 PER), but his mark in the conference is second-to-last on the team (4.9 PER).

It's odd to see a freshman playing less than 15 minutes per game flip a team's fortunes this much, but Pohto's slump fits the bill. Wichita scores a team-high 111 points per 100 possessions on the year when the young center is playing—that number's cratered to 74 points in conference play.

Pohto's leaned heavily on three-point shots throughout the season (42.5% of his FG attempts), just like his point guard in Etienne (60% of attempts from long range). Some of the efficiency drop from Pohto can be attributed to his three-point mark dropping from 29% to 16.7%.

Cincinnati sports the 44th ranked adjusted defensive efficiency in the country and owns a three-point defense in the top-third as well (31.2% allowed, 105th). If UC can keep making WSU the No. 1 three-point attempt team in the conference (28.7 per game) while shooting 26.7% (10th in the AAC), they should handle the road test.

UC has a mantra of turning hard-nosed defense into easy offense on the other end, just like Wichita State. Keeping up that 18th-ranked team turnover rate (14.8%) will be something to watch against a sneaky Shockers team.

Cincinnati tips this battle off at the Roundhouse on Sunday at 1 p.m. ET on ESPN.

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