Cotton Bowl Lookahead: Gauging How Balanced UC can Stay Offensively and a Prediction

The wait for the 2021 Cotton Bowl is almost over.

Author:
Russ Heltman
Updated:
Dec 29, 2021 8:36 PM EST

CINCINNATI — The time is nearly upon us. All of the analysis and speculation goes out the window Friday afternoon when No. 4 Cincinnati lines up across from No. 1 Alabama.

Cincinnati is a 13.5-point underdog in the game, and ESPN's matchup predictor favors Alabama to win 70.8% of the time. Luke Fickell and company aren't listening to the noise as his team gets ready for the biggest challenge of their football lives.

A team that's made it to seven of the eight College Football Playoffs, against a program carrying the flag for every underdog in college football history. We've taken in-depth looks at each side's special teams, and how things fare when Alabama has the ball.

Now it's time for the final installment of our Cotton Bowl Lookahead series by diving into how Cincinnati's offense matches up against Alabama's defense.

UC ranks 11th in Bill Connelly's offensive SP+ (38.7) and 22nd in the Fremeau Offense Efficiency Index rating (0.74). On the flip side, Alabama ranks 10th in defense SP+ (15.8) and sixth in Fremeau Defense Efficiency Index rating (0.94).

The Bearcats rushing attack is the unit to watch most closely on this side of the ball. Cincinnati is dead on arrival if Jerome Ford and Desmond Ridder can't keep up the efficient carries they toted all season. The pair helped lead a running game that finished eighth nationally in EPA/play (0.19).

Ridder's knack for timing his scrambles perfectly and Ford's home-run ability are the lifeblood of this offense. Keeping defensive boxes stacked opens up the big play for Cincinnati, and Ridder's taken full advantage in 2021. According to PFF, the senior has a 96 overall grade, 14 touchdowns, and zero interceptions on 20-plus yard throws this year.

Cincinnati's defense matches up just fine against Alabama's pass-heavy offense, but the strengths go head to head on this side of the ball. The Crimson Tide are ranked third in rushing EPA/play allowed (-0.2).

Cracking that rushing nut will take some pressure off of Ridder and not make him constantly search for the big play. The greatest quarterback in program history will have to have his greatest football performance to join the shortlist of quarterbacks who've ended Nick Saban's seasons.

Ridder can hit the deep ball and prefers pushing the envelope. He leads all 2021 CFP quarterbacks in air yards per attempt (9.97) and adjusted completion rate (74.4%). If those numbers hold on Friday, it'll mean the UC offense is punching back with big plays.

The one minor mismatch in this game requires Ridder to exploit it. Alabama is down one of their rotational cornerbacks and enters as the 41st ranked pass defense in EPA/play allowed (-0.004). Finding just enough rushing space to keep the passing game on schedule could mean big things for Cincinnati. Good thing for them Ridder rates as the second-best player on the team by NFL Draft analysts, and he plays a heavy role in both.

The Crimson Tide aren't anything to write home about in passing yards allowed (223.2, 63rd) and passing touchdowns allowed (1.8, 89th). That spells good things for Alec Pierce, who like Ridder, will need to play the best game of his life as a field stretcher. The senior totaled 50 catches, for 867 yards, and eight touchdowns this season.

Pierce's ability at the catch point and sound route running at all three levels of the field have bailed UC out at times this season and helped them ice games in the biggest moments.

Will "The Terminator" Anderson has something to say about Ridder and Pierce's search for career-best games. Anderson is like the T-2000 version of a normal, T-800 college linebacker. "The Terminator" went scorched earth on the SEC this year, finishing 2021 with the most sacks (15.5) and pressures in college football (69) and the all-time FBS tackles for loss record (32.5).

His potent combination with Henry To'oTo'o (team-leading 100 tackles, four sacks, one forced fumble) makes it easy to see why the Tide bottled up opposing rushing attacks all season long. They didn't allow Texas A&M to run wild on them in a 41-38 loss earlier this season but got held in check on the pursuit of QB Zach Calzada.

That fateful night in early October played out like most of the Alabama losses since Saban took over in 2009: Near-perfect QB play, win the turnover battle and stay afloat rushing the ball.

Check, check, and check for the Aggies in those departments. Calzada played better than he did all of 2021 by going 21-of-31 passing, for 285 yards, three touchdowns, one interception, and no sacks. Despite the pick, he still finished with a 90.8 QBR.

A Brian Robinson fumble and Bryce Young interception gave the Aggies a turnover advantage, and Calzada didn't have to do everything with his arm as A&M rushed 27 times for 94 yards. The formula for beating Alabama is like the formula for beating a great pocket quarterback (interior pressure). It's easy to describe, but much harder to execute.

Cincinnati has the attributes to get it done. Ridder is a veteran NFL prospect who posted a 91.5 passing grade this year and a strong 70.5 passing grade under pressure. UC is plus-11 in turnover margin this year (tied for seventh nationally), and opponent turnover rate is the one Fremeau Defensive Efficiency metric where Alabama ranks outside the top 24. Then, to tie a bow on the three key factors, we already mentioned Cincinnati's offense is top ten in rushing EPA/play.

The Bearcats have come this far since the magical stretch started last September, and I don't see them getting the doors blown off against an Alabama team that isn't at the level of most Saban teams throughout the CFP era. After looking at the matchups in all three phases of the game—Alabama will win this game but not easily.

The secondary proves its worth and make a few plays. Yet, in the end, Anderson—not Young—shows why he at least deserved an invite to the Heisman Trophy ceremony. The latter finished with the third-most first-place votes this year and will make enough impact plays to push his program towards another national title berth.

Alabama 31-27

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