Cotton Bowl Lookahead: Stacking the Special Teams Units

The Bearcats struggle kicking field goals but excel everywhere else on special teams as they get ready for Alabama.

Author:
Russ Heltman
Dec 17, 2021 4:04 PM EST

CINCINNATI — The Bearcats are officially two weeks away from the 2021 Cotton Bowl, and that means it's time to dive into the matchups in all three phases of the game. Cincinnati is taking on the reigning national champions in No. 1 Alabama. The latter is a 13.5-point favorite to advance to the National Championship game.

All Bearcats will hit things to watch on offense, defense, and special teams in the days leading up to the biggest game in program history. Let's start with special teams; a unit Cincinnati would love to slot transfer kicker Ryan Coe onto immediately if it could.

The matchup of specialist units is the biggest mismatch in this game. Cincinnati's offense matches up decently with Alabama's defense, and one could argue UC has the better defense, but there aren't a lot of teams worse than Cincinnati putting field goals through the uprights.

By the end of their AAC Championship triumph, the Bearcats ranked 78th nationally in special teams SP+ (-0.5). Alabama ended the year ranked 26th in the same metric (1.1). The issue never caused Cincinnati to stumble during the regular season, but Luke Fickell and company can't be confident in the unit given what we've seen.

The anchoring as a bottom-tier group overall comes from one spot in particular: kicker. The Bearcats were the second-worst field goal-kicking team in the country this season. Only Northwestern (41.67%) made their field goal tries at a lower clip than Cincinnati (43.75%).

Extra points haven't been a problem (68-for-70), but none of the four kickers UC tabbed this season could find a groove. Christian Lowery figures to stay in the role he held for the final five games of the season. He is 2-for-4 on the year, with no makes of 40-plus yards, just like the kickers before him. Cincinnati ended its AAC Championship run having gone 0-for-3 on kicks from 40-plus yards.

Wrap all the struggles up, and you get a kicking unit ranked 127th in Football Outsiders field goal efficiency mark (-0.86). Now for the positives.

Despite all that doom and gloom, Cincinnati still ranks 18th in the Fremeau Efficiency Index ratings. The metric combines kickoff return, kickoff, punt return, punt, and field goal efficiency into one overall rating. They are 11th in kick return efficiency (0.2), fifth in kickoff coverage efficiency (0.06), 36th in punt return efficiency (-0.06), and own the most efficient punting unit in the country.

All of those things have helped Cincinnati overcome the missed field goals and avoid losing any games. Kickoff return man Tre Tucker averages 25.3 yards per kickoff return (26th among all players), while Ryan Montgomery—his punting running mate—averages 10.9 yards per return (14th among all players). These non-kicking strengths helped Cincinnati rank fourth in net field position (6.6) through 13 games.

The Bearcats are one of 17 teams in the country that's blocked three punts and are tied for first with Houston and Old Dominion in blocked field goals (6). Alabama head coach Nick Saban is all about details; he won't be taking this group lightly knowing they are elite in almost every special teams category besides field goal kicking.

The Crimson Tide may have a big edge on SP+, but not so much in the Fremeau ratings. Their special teams rank 48th in overall efficiency (0.22) this season.

A middle-of-the-pack ranking for a team that isn't great in any category. Alabama slots in at No. 36 in kick return efficiency (0.1), 57th in kickoff coverage efficiency (-0.03), 41st in punt return efficiency, and are 115th in punt coverage efficiency (-0.01).

Alabama's special teams have created some defensive swing plays but not quite the amount UC has. The former blocked three field goals in the regular season (t-21st) and is in a tie with Cincinnati at three blocked punts.

The big special teams plays from the Tide are primarily due to their best offensive weapon: Jameson Williams. A projected first-round wide receiver, Williams has returned two kickoffs for touchdowns this year. The scary part? He's only returned nine kicks total, averaging 37.4 yards per return (second among all players). The Ohio State transfer is one of 11 names with multiple kickoff return touchdowns, and every other player has returned at least 15 kickoffs.

Williams will keep Brian Mason up at night over the next two weeks, but there are cracks to find in this game that the Bearcats special teams coach can bust open. He's caught flak for how glaring the kicking issue has been, but it's clear Mason's made up for it in nearly every way possible. The guy can't go out there and kick the attempts himself.

Special teams is the forgotten phase of the game. It doesn't have as large of an impact as a great offense or great defense, but when the margins for a National Championship berth are this thin, these plays can decide the outcome.

A seventh blocked kick or a fourth blocked punt could be the game-changing play UC needs to bite back in Texas and continue shocking the college football world. The Cotton Bowl kicks off at 3:30 p.m. ET New Year's Eve on ESPN.

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