Three Predictions For Undefeated Colorado Basketball's Rivalry Game At CSU

Colorado men's basketball's undefeated record will be tested in a big way on Saturday afternoon.

Two years removed from falling to the Colorado State Rams in a star-studded matchup at Moby Arena, the Buffs will return to Fort Collins this weekend with a new-look roster. Forward Bangot Dak is the only remaining Buff from that 2023-24 team, which produced three NBA Draft picks and reached the NCAA Tournament.

Below are three predictions for Saturday's (3 p.m. MT, CBS Sports Network) rivalry battle between 8-0 Colorado and 6-2 Colorado State:

Elijah Malone Bounces Back

Predictions Undefeated Colorado Basketball Rivalry Game CSU Rams Buffaloes Bangot Dak Isaiah Johnson Barrington Hargress Moby — Dec 7, 2024; Boulder, Colorado, USA; Colorado Buffaloes center Elijah Malone (50) drives to the basket in the second half against the Colorado State Rams at CU Events Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

Colorado needs a bounce-back game from veteran Center Elijah Malone to win the battle in the paint. After totaling six points and three turnovers in a win over Cal Baptist on Monday, expect Malone to up his game against a CSU team that he scored 10 against last year.

“Every day — not every other day, not every third day, not every fifth day — every day he’s here at 6 a.m.," Colorado coach Tad Boyle said of Malone. "I walk out on the floor, if I’m early, he’s out there. He’s got a sweat going. He’s got a lather going before practice even starts. He’s worked on his 3-ball all summer long. All fall long."

Malone has yet to prove himself as a consistent rebounder, but he'll play a big role on Saturday if Colorado State's defense takes away the 3-point shot early.

Colorado State Stays Hot From Deep

As of Friday evening, Colorado State's 44.98 shooting percentage from deep leads the nation. Kyle Jorgensen (52 percent), Josh Pascarelli (48.2), Carey Booth (47.8) and Brandon Rechsteiner (45.1) are all threats to shoot the 3, meaning Colorado must follow its defensive game plan and improve on navigating ball screens.

“I think the big thing against teams like this, help is going to be important, but we can't over-help," Boyle said, per BuffStampede's Oliver Hayes. "Against Colorado State, if you over-help, they're gonna pass it, we’re gonna rotate, they’re gonna pass it again and wrap a 3. So we gotta not over-help. Gotta help, but can't over-help. That's a fine line.“

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Turnover Battle Decides The Winner

In big games with large crowds, taking care of the ball is key. Fortunately, the Buffs have mostly limited turnovers this season with a 1.81 assist-to-turnover ratio (second in Big 12). Point guard Barrington Hargress is averaging only 1.5 turnovers per game, and fellow guards Felix Kossaras and Isaiah Johnson are both averaging less than one.

Colorado's 88-83 loss to CSU in 2023 was largely due to committing 15 turnovers to CSU's seven. That can't happen again if the Buffs want to secure their first win at Moby Arena since 2019.