Notable Offseason Losses Leaves Duke With Low 2026 Expectations

The loss of key starters turns the Duke Blue Devils football program from a contender to a team of uncertainty.

Nov 8, 2025; East Hartford, Connecticut, USA; Duke Blue Devils head coach Manny Diaz on the field before the start of the game against the UConn Huskies at Pratt & Whitney Stadium at Rentschler Field. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-Imagn Images | David Butler II-Imagn Images

Last season was a dream come true for the Duke Blue Devils.

No, they didn't win 10-plus games for the first time since 2013, nor did they make the College Football Playoff. They did win the ACC Championship outright for the first time since 1962, accomplishing a feat many did not think possible in this era of college football, when Duke, a blueblood in college basketball, had to compete against the likes of Clemson, Miami, Louisville, and others.

Dec 6, 2025; Charlotte, NC, USA; Duke Blue Devils head coach Manny Diaz celebrates defeating the Virginia Cavaliers during the 2025 ACC Championship game at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images | Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

For a moment in January, Duke seemed to have the team to make another run at not just the ACC title but the playoffs outright. The sudden departures of quarterback Darian Mensah and star wide receiver Cooper Barkate have left the Blue Devils scrambling for help at the positions, leading to lowered expectations than anticipated for head coach Manny Diaz and his program.

Low Expectations in 2026 Could Lead to Another Fascinating Rise for Duke Football

Sep 27, 2025; Stanford, California, USA; San Jose State Spartans quarterback Walker Eget (5) throws the football during the first quarter against the Stanford Cardinal at Stanford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stan Szeto-Imagn Images | Stan Szeto-Imagn Images

With Mensah and Barkate gone, the quarterback spot remains uncertain between three signal-callers: transfer Walker Eget, Dan Mahan, and transfer Ari Patu. The wide receiver position did acquire some intriguing transfers, such as Charlotte's Javen Nicholas and Penn's Jared Richardson.

Despite the loss of key defensive talents to the NFL Draft, key starters from a season ago, such as safety DaShawn Stone and linebacker Luke Mergott, will lead the way. Transfers, like defensive back Che Ojarike, safety Patrick Smith-Young, and defensive tackle Owen Wafle, provide the Blue Devils with the ammunition to compensate for the losses this offseason.

Manny Diaz, head football coach at Duke, shouts during the Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl against Arizona State at Sun Bowl Stadium in El Paso, Texas, on Wednesday, Dec. 31, 2025. | Gaby Velasquez/ El Paso Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

However, the strength of this team will likely be the run game featuring standout running back Nate Sheppard, a 1,100-yard rusher from a season ago who will be the bell cow for Duke. His 1,418 scrimmage yards and 12 total touchdowns should increase in 2026 as the engine of the offense.

Duke Could Surprise Again, but Miami Remains the Opponent To Beat

Dec 6, 2025; Charlotte, NC, USA; Duke Blue Devils running back Nate Sheppard (20) tries to outrun Virginia Cavaliers safety Devin Neal (27) during the second half during the 2025 ACC Championship game at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images | Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

As the Blue Devils prepare for the 2026 campaign, entering the year being counted out before games are played is just how this program likes it. They fly under the radar before showcasing some incredible outings during the regular season. The team to beat in the ACC will be no other than the Miami Hurricanes, the runner-ups in the National Championship.

Menash and Barkate are both in Coral Gables now, which makes this game every bit personal for the program. With how the Big Ten and SEC rule the sport's landscape, beating Miami is a must for the Blue Devils to make noise once more next season. Another seven-to-eight-win season is the likelihood for Diaz's program, but they should not be counted out regardless.