Why Each MVFC Contender Will And Won't Win The Conference In 2026

We are less than two weeks away from the 2026 FCS football season. As we prepare for games to begin next Thursday, I wanted to take a deeper look at one of the most intriguing storylines ahead of next season, which is the race in the MVFC.

With North Dakota State's departure, this conference race is wide open, and I think you could legitimately make a credible argument for six different teams winning the conference. A lot of that has to do with star quarterbacks returning for most of the top teams in the conference. Even with that returning talent, there are some major question marks that will impact which team wins this conference.

We make our case for why every MVFC contender can win the conference, while also taking a look at what could keep each team from living up to the preseason hype and competing for the conference title.

South Dakota State

Why SDSU Will Win The MVFC

South Dakota State is the projected favorite to win the conference. The Jackrabbits will have an excellent shot at returning to the top of the MVFC if this team is closer to the team we saw get a road win in Bozeman last year, instead of the team that allowed 50 points in a blowout loss to Montana in Missoula. There are a lot of reasons to believe that the first option will be the case.

First, the Jackrabbits should be a lot healthier this season, plus they should be in a better position to handle injuries after a full recruiting cycle, which allowed them to add some much-needed depth. For example, the depth at quarterback and defensive line is much improved from last year's roster. I think this team has a real chance to have an elite front seven in 2026.

To summarize, SDSU will win the MVFC if a few main things come together. Chase Mason needs to make strides with his confidence in the pocket, reading defenses, and getting passes out on time, plus it would be great to see him be more dangerous with his legs outside the pocket. The Jacks also have to fix some of the issues in the run game, which could be fixed by the scheme and getting guys into the right spot. Lastly, the transfers in the secondary need to gel quickly into a cohesive group.

Why SDSU Won't Win The MVFC

Even though the Jackrabbits are my favorite to win the conference, this is a team that went 4-4 in conference play. Other teams should have confidence that they can compete and beat this team. If for some reason it doesn't come together, I think it would be because of a combination of a few things.

If the offensive line just doesn't quite gel back to the level of where they were in 2022-23, it could be the biggest hindrance for SDSU's season. As I've highlighted before, this rushing attack was atrocious by SDSU standards last year, especially in conference play. If the real problem was the lack of playmakers at running back, or if the OL doesn't improve, this offense could be very one-dimensional. Secondly, if Mason struggles with holding the ball too long and making throws on time when under pressure.

Illinois State

Why Illinois State Will Win The MVFC

The Redbirds will win the MVFC if they show that last year's playoff run wasn't just a hot streak, but actually was a full change in identity. They'll need the defense to continue its elite play, especially with multiple key players like Tye Niekamp and Dexter Niekamp returning.

The other question will be Victor Dawson's health as the main workhorse for a full season, along with the quarterback battle between Gage Roy and Beckham Pellant. Can either player take charge of this offense and become a true leader like Tommy Rittenhouse?

Why Illinois State Won't Win The MVFC

The biggest thing that will keep the Redbirds out of the MVFC race will be below-average quarterback play. With a week until kickoff, it appears that Illinois State will have a two-quarterback system. Neither player brings any significant experience, which makes you wonder whether the Redbirds will be good enough at quarterback to win games in MVFC play, especially with all the other elite QBs in the conference.

Youngstown State

Why Youngstown State Will Win The MVFC

This team will clearly have an elite offense, especially with the return of Walter Payton Award winner Beau Brungard and an experienced offensive line. The Penguins ranked 5th nationally in yards per play, but the obvious problem was the defense, which ranked 96th in the FCS in yards per play allowed.

To win the MVFC, the Penguins have to remain healthy on the defensive line, while new defensive coordinator Ryan Riemedio has to elevate the overall play of this entire defense. If they can do that, Youngstown State has an excellent chance to win this conference.

Why Youngstown State Won't Win The MVFC

The biggest thing that will keep this team from winning the conference would be the lack of depth on the defensive side of the ball, particularly the defensive line. It's great to bring in a new defensive coordinator, but we have seen this story at YSU before.

We've needed this defense to improve, and they have been unable to do that over multiple seasons. If they can't build this unit into a Top 30-40 defense nationally, they won't be consistent enough to win week in and week out, especially in the MVFC.

North Dakota

Why North Dakota Will Win The MVFC

The Fighting Hawks may have the highest floor of any team in the MVFC, especially with the foundation they have established defensively. UND will be good enough to win the conference if Jerry Kaminski improves significantly as a passer. The Fighting Hawks also need 1-2 playmakers to emerge at the receiver position.

This team should be able to win a ton of games with a ball-control style, featuring a strong run game, while the defense is good enough to hold opposing offenses in check. They just need to find playmakers in the passing game who can make a difference on 2-3 possessions a game.

Why North Dakota Won't Win The MVFC

Plenty of quarterbacks have received hype over the summer, performed well at the Manning Passing Academy, and then gone on to have average seasons due to real limitations. Pair that with a group of receivers with no proven difference-makers, and the Fighting Hawks could be in a tough spot.

In 2025, the Fighting Hawks lost a ton of games where they couldn't score or convert in key moments against good teams. North Dakota was the worst among these six MVFC contenders, ranking 59th nationally in 3rd Down% last season. If this trend continues, it could hold them back against elite offenses in the MVFC.

South Dakota

Why South Dakota Will Win The MVFC

South Dakota will win the MVFC because this has been the most consistent program in the conference, outside of NDSU, over the last two seasons. Last year, they had to replace an incredible offensive line, and they proved successful in doing so. Freshman quarterback Austyn Modrzewski has a ton of raw talent and athleticism that Aidan Bouman never had, plus this defense still has plenty of talent.

When you pair all that with one of the most talented running back rooms in the country and the Coyotes are going to have a chance to win a ton of big games. It really comes down to how Modrzewski responds in those key games against some of the best teams at the FCS level.

Why South Dakota Won't Win The MVFC

The Coyotes won't win the MVFC because an important part of their success over the last three years was Aidan Bouman's ability to protect the football, which may not happen if Modrzewski goes through freshman growing pains. If he turns the ball over and makes mistakes, the Coyotes may not be able to steal games in the margins like they have been these last few years.

South Dakota also has a very unproven receiving unit. Their Top 2 players were not consistently reliable last year. If this weakness is paired with an offensive line that struggles to keep Modrzewski clean, which will lead to turnovers and mistakes, it could expose a defense that isn't used to being in negative situations.

Southern Illinois

Why Southern Illinois Will Win The MVFC

Southern Illinois being tabbed as a real contender may surprise some people, especially since this team didn't even make the playoffs last year. However, it shouldn't be surprising since the Salukis were just a few plays away from finishing the season with 9 wins, which would have put them in the postseason. At that point, anything could have happened; look no further than Illinois State, who the Salukis beat by 30 points in the final game of the regular season.

This team was elite offensively in 2025. In offensive yards per play, they ranked right next to Montana State, UC Davis, and Youngstown State. With DJ Williams and a ton of other key offensive contributors returning, this should be an elite offense again. The problem is going to be defense.

The Salukis are going to have a chance to shock the conference if the talented young players they have in key spots live up to their high expectations. We saw SIU with an elite defense in 2023, so we know this unit can improve next season. They just need to find a way to pair this offense with at least an above-average defense.

Why Southern Illinois Won't Win The MVFC

This one is fairly simple. The Salukis won't win the conference if the young players they are relying on defensively show their youth and play inconsistently, especially if they begin to make too many mistakes. This offense should be able to keep them in games, but the defense is going to have to make enough plays to win the game.

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