College Football AP Ranking vs Kalshi Prediction Market: A Side-by-Side Comparison

The first official AP Top-25 rankings have been released, and Ohio State tops the board as the No. 1 ranked team ahead of the 2026 season. With the release, Kalshi’s college football market updated its prices accordingly.

It’s a two-way tie at the top of the National Championship board between Ohio State as the top-ranked team, and Notre Dame, which comes in as the fourth-ranked team at 13% each. Trading $10 on either to win the National Championship profits $62.46.

College Football AP Top 25 (National Championship price)

Ohio State (13%)
Oregon (11%)
Georgia (10%)
Notre Dame (13%)
Texas (12%)
Indiana (9%)
Miami (8%)
Texas A&M (4%)
Ole Miss (2%)
Oklahoma (3%)
LSU (6%)
Texas Tech (4%)
Alabama (4%)
BYU (1%)
USC (2%)
Michigan (3%)
Washington (1%)
Penn State (2%)
SMU (1%)
Tennessee (2%)
Utah (1%)
Iowa (1%)
Houston (1%)
Louisville (1%)
Missouri (1%)

Notes to consider

Being the No. 1 ranked team in the preseason doesn’t guarantee the best chance at a National Championship. Only once in the College Football Playoff era has the preseason No. 1 gone on to win the championship. The 2017, Alabama featured Jalen Hurts, Najee Harris, Calvin Ridley, and Jerry Jeudy. They went on to win it all.

Several teams outside of the preseason top-10 have gone on to win championships. The lowest ever was 2010 Auburn, led by Cam Newton, who opened at No. 22. Last season, Indiana became the second-lowest-ranked team to win a national title after opening at No. 20.

Over the last five seasons, four of them have seen a 48% turnover or higher. In 2022, the preseason rankings saw 60% of teams fall unranked at some point during the season.

Games with playoff implications

Now that the rankings are out, we can take a look at top-25 ranked games that could have an impact on the playoff rankings.

Week 2: No. 1 Ohio State @ No. 5 Texas
Week 3: No. 11 LSU @ No. 9 Ole Miss
Week 4: No 10. Oklahoma @ No. 3 Georgia, No 8. Texas A&M @ No. 11 LSU
Week 5: No. 17 Washington @ No. 14 USC
Week 6: No 3. Georgia @ No. 13 Alabama, No. 5 Texas vs. No. 10 Oklahoma
Week 7: No. 1 Ohio State @ No. 6 Indiana, No 4. Notre Dame @ No. 14 BYU
Week 8: No 9 Ole Miss @ No. 5 Texas, No 8 Texas A&M @ No. 13 Alabama
Week 9: No. 1 Ohio State vs. #14 USC
Week 10: No. 2 Oregon @ No. 1 Ohio State, No. 3 Georgia @ No. 9 Ole Miss, No. 13 Alabama @ No. 11 LSU, No. 7 Miami @ No. 4 Notre Dame
Week 11: No. 16 Michigan @ No. 2 Oregon, No. 5 Texas @ No. 11 LSU, No. 14 USC @ No. 6 Indiana, No. 9 Ole Miss @ No. 10 Oklahoma
Week 12: No. 8 Texas AM @ No. 10 Oklahoma
Week 13: No. 5 Texas @ No. 8 Texas AM, No. 16 Michigan @ No. 1 Ohio State

The college football season kicks off with an eight-game Week 0 slate on August 29th.

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