FSU Basketball may have tough challenge vs UT Martin

After a loss to Florida last Tuesday, Luke Loucks and his Florida State squad had a week off to regroup and get ready for their next challenge: UT-Martin. It's the school where Leonard Hamilton played at, so Coach Hamilton will be recognized in this game, but FSU should be ready for a tough fight against the Skyhawks, as they've already picked up a couple of tough road wins.

Florida State was purposeful with their scheduling, looking to play against weaker teams that could actually improve their metrics, but they may not get their wish with this game.

This game between FSU and UT-Martin will be at 7 p.m. EST on ACCNX/ESPN+ from the Donald L. Tucker Civic Center in Tallahassee, Florida.

Mar 11, 2025; Charlotte, NC, USA; Florida State Seminoles head coach Leonard Hamilton on the sideline during the second half against the Syracuse Orange at Spectrum Center. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images | Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks Breakdown (3-0 overall)

UT-Martin is off to a strong start this season, their second under head coach Jeremy Shulman. He spent a lot of time at Eastern Florida State (JUCO), where he led them to a lot of success. And his ability recruit internationally could pay off in a big way.

They've picked off two road wins against UNLV and Bradley, which is no easy feat. UNLV was predicted to be a mid-tier Mountain West team, while Bradley has won 20+ games in 6 of the last 8 seasons, and they're always a threat to win the MVC.

The Skyhawks may play in Tennessee, but you wouldn't know it by looking at their roster. Of the 10 players who have checked into a game for them this year, 10 have been international players.

There are three you really need to know: Andrija Bukumirovic, Dragos Lungu, and Matas Deniusas. Bukumirovic is leading the way with 20 PPG and 6.7 RPG while shooting an INSANE 77.4% from the floor and 69.2% from three on more than four attempts per game. There's almost no way he can keep that up all season, but those numbers just don't even look real. He also has five steals in three games.

Lungu is not far behind, averaging 17.0 PPG and 5.7 RPG, shooting 67.9% from the floor. His threes haven't been falling yet, but he wasn't really a great shooter at San Diego last year, either. He also spent time with the NBA Global Academy in Australia, so he clearly has some talent.

Deniusus is a freshman out of Lithuania who has put up impressive numbers to start the season: 14.0 PPG and 6.7 RPG. He had 20 and 7 against Bradley last week, and it's not like FSU has been dominant down low to start. He's also more than capable of shooting threes, though, as he was 3/4 from deep against Bradley. Pick-and-pops gave the Seminoles issues in the exhibition against Florida A&M, so curious to see how they'll do against better competition.

Everyone else, just assume they're a threat to shoot. Of the 13 players who have checked into the game, 11 of them have attempted a three, and 9 have made one.

Freshman guard Filip Petkovski is their best playmaker, averaging 5.7 APG while also averaging an impressive 2.7 SPG. He hasn't shot the ball well so far, but at 6'5", he provides an interesting matchup for most guards.

There are three areas in which UT-Martin really stands out: three-point shooting differential, free throw attempts, and forcing turnovers. As of Monday afternoon, they're 4th nationally in free-throw rate, 29th in three-point percentage (40.7%) while holding opponents to a 23.3% three-point shooting clip (20th nationally), and they force a turnover rate of 23.5%, which is 24th nationally.

On the flip side, they're dead last in opponent free-throw rate, so Florida State could be shooting a lot of free throws in this game. They also turn it over at a 24.1% rate, which is one of the worst marks in the country. When they don't turn it over, they're really effective with their shooting, even if they're only shooting 58.5% from the free-throw line.

UT Martin's men's basketball head coach Jeremy Shulman yells during an NCAA basketball game between the Tennessee Volunteers and UT Martin Skyhawks at Thompson-Boling Arena at Food City Center on Wednesday, Nov. 27, 2024. Mandatory Credit: Angelina Alcantar/USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images | News Sentinel-Imagn Images

Florida State Seminoles Breakdown (2-1 Overall)

Three games in, what do we think?

The ability to generate turnovers has been a pleasant surprise for me. I didn't expect them to be forcing a turnover rate of 23.8%, and they're doing a great job of taking care of the basketball. That's how they were able to hang on against Florida despite not shooting well and getting dominated on the glass.

The three-point shooting will be something they rely on, but as we saw against Florida, those shots won't always fall. That's why Robert McCray V has been the most impressive player, because he's very capable of getting downhill and getting to the basket. The first half against Florida, he was dancing around a little too much, and the physicality was definitely threw him off. And turnovers can be an issue for him, but he makes this engine go.

Lajae Jones will be looking for a bounceback performance after struggling with his shooting and fouling in that game. He was great in the first two games, and I expect him to be one of FSU's best players this year.

The two things FSU has to address in these next few games: Defending without fouling and rebounding. They're just an average rebounding team, but they were killed on the glass against UF. They likely won't face a frontcourt that dominating on the glass again, but they'll still wanto be better moving forward.

Defending without fouling is definitely the biggest concern. It hasn't been as bad as it was against Alabama, but it still has been far from great. If they can get that squared away, they can absolutely make some noise.

Projected Starters

Florida State

G: Robert McCray V
G: Kobe MaGee
G: LaJae Jones
F: Chauncey Wiggins
F: Alex Steen

UT-Martin

G: Afan Trnka
G: Filip Petkovski
G: Dragos Lungu
F: Andrija Bukumirovic
F: Matas Deniusas

3 Keys to the Game

Contain UT-Martin's 3-Headed Trio

Between Dragos Lungu, Andrija Bukumirovic, and Matas Deniusas, they're averaging a combined 51 PPG. This team is averaging 87 PPG, but some of those numbers are inflated because of a 97-42 win over NAIA's Kentucky Christian. But these three are still more than capable of scoring.

They all do different things, which will be an interesting challenge for Florida State's defense.

Free-Throw and 3-Point Shooting

UT-Martin's game against UNLV saw a combined 85 free throws, and their game against Bradley *only* saw 54 combined free throws. So, expect a lot of fouls in this game.

Florida State has struggled to defend without fouling this season, which has really been my biggest complaint of the defense so far. They're allowing a free-throw rate of 43.3%, which is in the bottom third nationally.

Both of these teams are shooting well from deep (36% for FSU, 40.3% for UT-Martin) and defending the three well (30% allowed for FSU, 23.3% for UT-Martin). So, who is going to break through and find success from behind the arc?

Turnovers

The biggest advantage that Florida State has is in the turnover department, where they're forcing a 23.8% turnover rate, and they're taking care of the ball well, only turning the ball over at a 14% rate, which is what is supposed to happen with a guard heavy team.

UT-Martin is forcing a lot of turnovers, but they're also coughing it up at a 24.1% rate. It wouldn't be surprising to see FSU force 20+ turnovers in this matchup, but they'll also need to take care of the ball on their end.

Game Prediction

Florida State has opened as a 22.5-point favorite with an over/under of 161.5, per FanDuel Sportsbook.

This is an interesting matchup. UT-Martin has played well to start the season, and Florida State will want to bounce back after last week's rivalry. FSU will win, but it may be slightly closer than people anticipate.

Florida State 91, UT-Martin 72

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