Game Preview: FSU Basketball at No. 25 Louisville Cardinals

Florida State is hitting the road to play one of the best teams in the ACC, as the Louisville Cardinals have been surging since December. In fact, Louisville's win in Tallahassee over FSU started a stretch where they've won 14 of the last 15 games, beating teams like Clemson, UNC, and SMU. The only loss was on the road to a Georgia Tech team that has found some footing.

Since these teams have already played (granted, two months ago), this will once again be a shorter preview.

This game will be at 12 p.m. EST on the CW Network, live from the KFC YUM! Center in Louisville, Kentucky.

#25 Louisville Cardinals Breakdown (20-6 Overall, 12-2 ACC)

Louisville Cardinals guard Chucky Hepburn (24) controls the ball during the first half against the Boston College Eagles at Conte Forum. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-Imagn Images | Bob DeChiara-Imagn Images

Louisville is now running a pretty strict eight-man rotation of Chucky Hepburn, Reyne Smith, Terrence Edwards Jr., J'Vonne Hadley, James Scott, Aboubacar Traore, Noah Waterman, and Khani Rooths. Traore was injured the last time these teams played, being a solid guard off the bench with 6.6 PPG and 5.2 RPG in ACC play.

Chucky Hepburn is the engine, making a case for First Team All-ACC, averaging 14.5 PPG, 7.1 APG, and 1.9 SPG. While he's not the leading scorer, he's the one setting everyone else up.

The leading scorer in ACC play has been Reyne Smith, as no one wants to take him off the three-point line. Of his 243 points in ACC play (16.2 PPG), 195 have been from three; a rate of 80.2%.

Terrence Edwards Jr. has been at 15.7 PPG in ACC play, just behind Reyne Smith, and he's capable of scoring from anywhere on the floor. He's taking the most shots of anyone on the team, but he's much better at getting to the rim than Smith is.

J'Vonne Hadley is the last major scorer for the team at 13.8 PPG. He's continued to grow as a shooter, but he's also a beast on the glass. Between him, Traore, and starting center James Scott, they have a few guys who relentlessly crash the glass.

Louisville is firing up the 7th-highest three-point rate in the country, and it's been falling in conference play after a slow start in non-conference. This is a team you can't leave open for three, but it also opens up a lot on the inside, as they're top-25 nationally in 2-point percentage. They have an argument as the second-best team in the ACC with Clemson, but it's a very good basketball team.

Florida State Seminoles Breakdown (16-10 Overall, 7-8 ACC)

FSU completed a season sweep of Miami on Wednesday night as Malique Ewin dominated, scoring 24 points on a perfect 10/10 shooting. He became one of four Seminoles ever to have a perfect shooting percentage on at least 10 shots, joining Greg Grady (1976, 11/11 shooting), Tat Hunter (1985, 10/10 shooting), and Doug Edwards (1992, 10/10). It should be noted that Malique Ewin was the only one to do it against a power conference opponent, though that may be showing a little too much respect to a bad Miami team.

That win on Wednesday guarantees that FSU will finish with at least a .500 record. But the rest of the schedule is very difficult. Here are the last five games: at Louisville, vs. North Carolina (on Monday), at Duke, at Virginia, vs. SMU. Four of the six best teams in the ACC are in that stretch. It's a likely scenario where FSU isn't favored in any of those games, and that home game against UNC could be their best chance at a win; it's either that or at Virginia, a building they've won in just twice in the last 12 years. Maybe Andy Enfield lets his former boss get a win in his last regular season game, but I wouldn't count on it.

FSU has to find some offensive consistency, first and foremost, in these last five games. We expect Malique Ewin and Jamir Watkins to combine for 30-35 points every night, but it's hard for the team to find a consistent third scorer. If Taylor Bol Bowen or Daquan Davis can do that, great. But the non-Ewin players were 15/45 from the floor against Miami, a really bad defensive team. That has to improve if they want to steal a game here at the end or make a surprise ACC Tournament run.

Projected Starters

Louisville

G: Chucky Hepburn
G: Reyne Smith
G: Terrence Edwards Jr.
G: J'Vonne Hadley
F: James Scott

Florida State

G: Daquan Davis
G: Chandler Jackson
F: Jamir Watkins
F: Taylor Bol Bowen
F: Malique Ewin

Keys to the Game

3-Point Defense

Louisville shot the lights out in Tallahassee, going 15/29 from three-point range. Reyne Smith specifically continued to separate himself from the defense for threes, scoring 27 points on 6/9 shooting from deep. After shooting poorly in non-conference play, Louisville is up to 37.2% from distance in conference play. They're shooting the 7th-most threes in college basketball, and they're a tough team to defend when those are falling.

Interior Offense

Malique Ewin is coming off a dominant showing against Miami, scoring 24 points on a perfect 10/10 shooting from the floor. He had a big game against Louisville in the first matchup as well because Louisville's one weakness is their center play. Ewin needs to dominate, but others have to be able to drive and score as well. Louisville is 2-5 when their opponents shoot better than 55% inside the arc, and while one of those wins was against FSU, the Seminoles can at least give themselves a chance by continuing to score on the inside.

Jamir Watkins

While Jamir Watkins has been scoring a lot, he hasn't been very efficient. Over his last eight games, he's averaging 16.5 PPG but is shooting just 39.3% from the floor and 30.2% from three. Only once in that stretch has he shot better than 50% from the floor. To beat a team as good as Louisville, the best players have to be at their best.

Game Prediction

Louisville is favored by 13.5 points with an over/under of 151.5, per FanDuel Sportsbook.

It's going to be difficult for Florida State to win this game. Louisville beat them once earlier in Tallahassee when they were dealing with injuries. Now that they're healthy and at home, I'd be pretty surprised if FSU won.

Louisville 81, Florida State 66

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