Game Preview: FSU Basketball at Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Florida State has had a week off since breaking a four-game losing streak with a win over Notre Dame. They'll now hit the home stretch and look to send Leonard Hamilton out on a positive note. But their first game back won't be an easy one.

Wake Forest had some slips in non-conference play, especially with a disappointing double-digit loss to Xavier and close wins over USC Upstate, Minnesota, and Detroit Mercy. But they've bounced back in ACC play, only losing to Duke, Clemson, and Louisville, who are probably the three best teams in the league. They're hoping to prove they're an NCAA Tournament team and can't afford any disappointing losses.

This game will be at 7 p.m. EST on ESPNU, live from the Lawrence Joel Veterans Memorial Coliseum in Winston-Salem, North Carolina.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons Breakdown (18-6 Overall, 10-3 ACC)

Wake Forest became the first ACC team to sweep the California trip, beating Stanford and Cal last week. The Stanford game was a thriller, as Wake used a dominant final four minutes to come away with the win and did a good job of limiting Maxime Raynaud.

The metrics don't love Wake Forest because of some poor performances at the start of the season, but they've mostly taken care of business in ACC play, especially at home. But it is not a deep team, only playing seven guys on most nights.

Their backcourt is scary. Hunter Sallis is averaging 18.4 PPG and 2.7 APG, but he's also averaging a lot more turnovers than last year. His three-point shoot has also plummeted from last season despite taking fewer shots than last year. He's going to be a problem against anyone Wake plays, but he's had six games with 4+ turnovers. Five of those have been losses.

This is a really good defensive team and an offense that mainly prefers to operate on the interior. Their 29% shooting from three-point range this season is one of the worst rates in the country, but they're shooting 54.5% from two and 75.1% from the free-throw line. On defense, they rank in the top 50 of 2PT%, 3PT%, eFG%, TO%, and block rate. Basically, the only places they're not great on defense are free-throw rate and rebounding.

Cameron Hildreth is their second-leading scorer at 14.4 PPG, and he's a mid-range maestro. He has exceptional footwork, but he can get a little shot-happy at times. He's had four games with four or fewer points, and all four of those have been losses.

Tre'Von Spillers is their last player, averaging double figures at an even 10 PPG. He's not a great floor spacer; if he wants to take threes, let him. But he can tear it up inside the paint as a power forward. He's also the Deacs' best rebounder at 7.9 RPG.

Efton Reid is a center that Florida State recruited and is familiar with; he probably hasn't developed the way many thought he would when he was a borderline five-star coming out of high school, averaging just 8.5 PPG and 5.9 RPG. Malique Ewin should be able to beat him on offense.

Ty-Laur Johnson is a lightning-quick point guard who tore FSU up at Louisville last year to the tune of 27 points and 11 assists. He hasn't that kind of impact ever again, but he knows how to beat FSU's pressure. Not a shooter at all and has a high turnover rate.

Juke Harris has had a nice impact off the bench as a defender and energy guy, but he's also not much of a shooter. Omaha Biliew has a high pedigree as a former five-star but has yet to show any of that potential, and he's returning from injury. Parker Friedrichsen could see the occasional minute as a three-point shooter.

Florida State Seminoles Breakdown (14-9 Overall, 5-7 ACC)

Florida State Seminoles forward Taylor Bol Bowen (10) reacts after dunking the ball during the second half against the Virginia Tech Hokies at Donald L. Tucker Center. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-Imagn Images | Melina Myers-Imagn Images

Florida State should be getting Taylor Bol Bowen back for this game after missing the last two with a head injury. That'll be important against a team with some size on the interior.

The last win against Notre Dame was massive, giving them a small confidence boost before hitting the road for this game. Outside of Jamir Watkins and Malique Ewin, it wasn't the prettiest game, though. They scored just 0.96 points per possession, a low rate, but they were able to hold Notre Dame to 0.86 PPP, their best defensive outing of ACC play. They may need a similar defensive effort on Wednesday night against a good defensive team.

Coach Hamilton announced after the Notre Dame game that Daquan Davis has been playing through some minor injuries, and it's about that time of the season when freshmen hit a wall. He's been the biggest contributor among the freshmen, and getting this last week off should've helped him. They'll need his speed against Wake's backcourt.

Florida State's offense hasn't been over 1.1 PPP since the win over Georgia Tech, and they need to find a way for the offense to get back on track. Whether Bowen's return helps or if they can find some other contributors, but the offense has to get going over these last eight games of the season.

Projected Starters

Wake Forest

G: Ty-Laur Johnson
G: Hunter Sallis
G: Cameron Hildreth
F: Tre'Von Spillers
F: Efton Reid III

Florida State

G: Daquan Davis
G: Chandler Jackson
F: Jamir Watkins
F: Taylor Bol Bowen
F: Malique Ewin

Keys to the Game

Force Turnovers

Florida State was able to upset Wake Forest at home last season because they forced 20 turnovers. WF has been about average nationally this season in terms of protecting the ball, and five of their six losses have come in their eight-highest turnover outings. Two of those other games were just one-possession wins. If FSU wants to have success, it'll start with forcing turnovers and getting out in transition. Wake Forest's defense is good, so try to beat them down the floor.

Interior Defense

Wake is not a good three-point shooting team, getting over 75% of their points from inside the arc and the free-throw line. Florida State will need to make sure they're defending without fouling and protecting the paint. Hunter Sallis and Ty-Laur Johnson are lightning-quick guards, Cam Hildreth is a mid-range monster, Efton Reid is a capable big, and Tre'Von Spillers is a paint beast as well.

Offensive Rebounds and Free Throws

There are really only two weaknesses in Wake's defense: the offensive glass and the free-throw line. They're a poor rebounding team in general, which might give FSU a chance to compete on the glass, but they need to crash the offensive boards hard, if for nothing else than to get to the free-throw line. Teams are shooting an insane 78.4% against Wake Forest from the free-throw line, a mark they have zero control over, but it's funny to look at. Maybe some of that can spread to FSU, because I'm not sure how else they'll be able to generate consistent offense against a good Deacons defense.

Game Prediction

Wake Forest opened as 7.5-point favorites with an over/under of 143.5, per FanDuel Sportsbook.

I think this is a bad matchup for FSU. There's nothing I'd love more than for the 'Noles to pick up a win on the road, and even if they force Wake into more turnovers than normal like last season, Wake's interior offense should be able to get almost whatever they want against Florida State. Wake should be able to handle this one.

Wake Forest 78, Florida State 66

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER

Stick with NoleGameday for more FREE coverage of Florida State Basketball throughout the 2024-25 season

Follow NoleGameday on and Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, and TikTok

More Florida State News

• Florida State offers three quarterbacks after losing top #Tribe26 commitment

• Florida State lands standout local running back Amari Clemons

• Four former Florida State stars advance to Super Bowl LIX

• Obscene message in Doak Campbell Stadium proves even snow can't stop FSU-UF rivalry