Game Preview: FSU Basketball vs. Miami Hurricanes

Florida State welcomes the Miami Hurricanes to Tallahassee on Wednesday night, one last matchup for Coach Leonard Hamilton against his former team, barring a game in the ACC Tournament in a few weeks. And for Matthew Cleveland, it gives him one last chance to get a win against his former team, as he is now 0-3 against the Seminoles since transferring down South after the 2022-23 season.

FSU won the first matchup between these two this season in Coral Gables 80-65, but Miami has been able to hang in a little bit in their last few games. They want to spoil one of the last games of Coach Hamilton's tenure. Will they be able to get it done?

This game will be at 9 p.m. EST on the ACC Network, live from the Donald L Tucker Center in Tallahassee, Florida.

Miami Hurricanes Breakdown (6-19 Overall, 2-12 ACC)

Miami Hurricanes guard Matthew Cleveland (0) looks on against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish during the second half at Watsco Center. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

HERE is a link to the first preview between these two teams from January.

After looking like they might go winless in ACC play, Miami has won two of the last four ACC games, beating Notre Dame and Syracuse in Coral Gables. But they've yet to beat anyone on the road this season. FSU is looking to avoid being that first road win for Miami.

But Miami has played a little better on the road recently. They were able to compete against a great Louisville team and a solid Pitt team, finishing within ten points of both games despite still not having Nijel Pack.

Matthew Cleveland performed poorly against Pitt, but he had been playing the best basketball of his career before that, averaging 26.4 PPG from January 18th to February 11th, a stretch of seven games.

No one else has been able to consistently step up beside him, though. AJ Staton McCray has had three straight games in double-digits, but he also put up a goose egg in the win over Notre Dame. Lynn Kidd has averaged 11 PPG this season, the only other member of the rotation in double figures, but he has historically not scored well against the Seminoles, dating back to his days at Virginia Tech. If Kidd is Miami's leading scorer like he was against FSU, the 'Noles should like their chances.

Florida State Seminoles Breakdown (15-10 Overall, 6-8 ACC)

Florida State Seminoles guard Jamir Watkins (1) brings the ball up court against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons during the second half at Lawrence Joel Veterans Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images | Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

It might be best to just forget what happened on Saturday against Clemson. They did two of the things I wanted them to do: limit Chase Hunter and Clemson's three-point shooting. And yet despite holding the elder Hunter brother to 4 points without a made field goal and the Tigers to 8/27 from three, the Seminoles still lost by 26 points.

Part of it was that the offense just didn't show up, scoring only 46 points. Jamir Watkins had 14 points on 6/12 shooting, but he was just 1/5 from the free-throw line. The rest of the team had 32 points on 12/41 (29.3%) shooting from the floor and 7/14 from the free-throw line. That won't get it done against many teams, to say the least.

Everybody has to be much better on Wednesday night. Miami isn't nearly as good of a defensive team as Clemson, but a game like that can bruise egos. We'll see how they come out in this game.

Projected Starters

Florida State

G: Daquan Davis
G: Chandler Jackson
F: Jamir Watkins
F: Taylor Bol Bowen
F: Malique Ewin

Miami

G: Divine Ugochukwu
G: Jalil Bethea
G: Matthew Cleveland
F: Brandon Johnson
F: Lynn Kidd

Keys to the Game

Interior Battle

Miami doesn't have a rim protector in their rotation, and FSU was able to take advantage of that in the first matchup, shooting 22/40 inside the arc. That also allowed them to spray out to open shooters and give them one of their best offensive performances of the season. That will need to continue.

But FSU also needs good interior defense. Miami hasn't been a great three-point shooting team this season, but they're in the top 40 nationally in 2pt%. Miami had one of its worst interior performances against the Seminoles, and they'll be looking to do much better than that.

Matthew Cleveland

Cleveland obviously wants to beat his former team. He's scored 16 points while shooting 50% from the field in each of his last two games against the Seminoles. But his last time on the court for Miami was a stinker: just 8 points on 4/16 shooting. He'd been playing well before that, averaging 26.4 PPG while shooting 57.5% from the floor and attempting nearly 8 free throws per game in the seven games before. So, what version of Cleveland will show up on Wednesday night?

Turnovers

Florida State generally wins games when they turn teams over at a high rate, but Miami has done a decent job taking care of the basketball all season. Their 17.8% turnover rate against the Seminoles is one of their higher marks of the season, while it's about a middle-of-the-pack performance for FSU's defense.

Game Prediction

Florida State is favored by 8.5 points with an over/under of 153.5, per FanDuel Sportsbook.

FSU is a hard team to predict right now. They come away with a stunning win at Wake Forest, then get dominated at home against a good Clemson team. Miami is not a good basketball team, and hopefully, Florida State puts them away early. They have enough advantages to be able to do that.

Florida State 85, Miami 74

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