NoleGameday staff score predictions for No. 25 FSU football vs. Pittsburgh Panthers

The No. 25 Florida State Seminoles wrap up their two-game homestand with a conference matchup against the Pittsburgh Panthers in a nationally televised affair on Saturday afternoon.

This is the first time the Seminoles and the Panthers have faced off since 2023 and only the second meeting between the two programs since Pittsburgh joined the ACC over a decade ago. Pitt leads the all-time series, 6-5, meaning Florida State can tie things up with a win this weekend.

This is a crucial game for Florida State. Losing to Pittsburgh would mean a third straight defeat for the Seminoles. Dropping to 0-3 in the ACC is something this program can't afford, as all of the goodwill from the 3-0 start would be gone.

Our staff at NoleGameday provides their predictions and analysis as the Seminoles prepare to take on the Panthers

Dustin Lewis (@DustinLewisNG)

Florida State Seminoles quarterback Tommy Castellanos (1) passes the ball down the field. The Miami Hurricanes defeated the Florida State Seminoles 22-28 at Doak Campbell Stadium on Saturday, Oct. 4, 2025. | Alicia Devine/Tallahassee Democrat / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Well, the last two weeks have certainly not gone as I expected. I thought Florida State would handle the test against Virginia and rise up in a rivalry game against Miami. That obviously did not happen and now the Seminoles are squarely staring adversity in the face.

It won't get any easier this weekend as Pittsburgh is a gritty team and Pat Narduzzi always has his program ready to go. The Panthers are feeling good after a 48-7 victory over Boston College last week. True freshman quarterback Mason Heintschel had four pass attempts coming into the game, then proceeded to go 30/41 for 323 yards and four touchdowns.

This will be Heintschel's first game start on the road. That didn't go so well for Alabama's Ty Simpson back on August 30. Pittsburgh could get a boost as senior running back Desmond Reid is nearing a return after missing the last two games. Last season, Reid rushed 184 times for 966 yards and five touchdowns while catching 52 passes for 579 yards and four more scores.

The Panthers also have a strong defense to back Heintschel up. Pittsburgh ranks No. 2 in the country against the run, allowing just 64.6 yards on the ground per game. They rank top-10 in the FBS in sacks (3.2) and tackles for loss per game (9.4)

It will be good on good in Tallahassee. Florida State is still No. 2 in the nation in rushing yards per game (295.4). The Seminoles have to establish the run and keep the game within reach. They can't afford to fall behind and have Tommy Castellanos throw 45 times again.

Speaking of Castellanos, he's been forcing it the last few games and getting too erratic. It feels like he's constantly looking for the big play rather than taking what the defense gives him. Playing smart football and keep drives alive is what fueled the upset against Alabama.

Castellanos needs to manage the game instead of trying to win it with his arm.

I'll take the Seminoles to bounce back and win their first ACC game in over a year in a closer than expected contest.

2025 Season Prediction Record: 2-3

Seminoles 27, Panthers 23

Logan Robinson (@LogansTwitty)

If anyone can find FSU’s pass rush, let me know! They’re going to need it on Saturday afternoon against a quarterback that is very young, a freshman, but has a lot of confidence after eating up a bad Boston College defense.

Now, what concerns me, as mentioned at the very beginning, is the lack of edge rush you have from the Seminoles’ defense. That, with also lackluster play from the secondary, is not a good combo. I think FSU will be able to establish the run with Pittsburgh sending blitzes but I’d like so see Gus Malzahn move Tommy Castellanos around more and not rely on him to be a pocket passer.

I think Florida State gets its first ACC win of the season but it’s going to be very close.

2025 Season Prediction Record: 2-3

Seminoles 28, Panthers 27

Austin Veazey (@EasyVeazeyNG)

This is a tough one to pick. You could argue this is a must-win for Mike Norvell and the Seminoles, as starting 0-3 in ACC play after beating Alabama would be heading the wrong way, but Pitt is a solid team whose strengths may give FSU fits.

A spread of 10.5 is shockingly high. If FSU finds a way to cover that, I'd genuinely be impressed. But with how Pitt's defensive front has played against the run, and a Florida State offense that has mostly struggled to pass, it's going to come down to how well Pitt's freshman quarterback performs in his first road start.

I think FSU wins. I'm not confident in that in the slightest. I'm tired of Mike Norvell saying that he's liked the way the team has responded in practice. It's time they show it on the field in a game.

2025 Season Prediction Record: 3-2

Seminoles 30, Panthers 27

Dillon Riera (@13d_riera)

Morale has declined in recent weeks in Tallahassee. After a hot start to the season with an emphatic win over the Crimson Tide, the 'Noles have delivered a pair of lackluster performances en route to two losses against conference opponents. Gone is the shine that this FSU team had on it in the early weeks of the season.

Tensions are rising in Tallahassee, as the Florida State faithful grow impatient and weary of seeing their team fall short time and again. Right now, Mike Norvell and his squad must rediscover their winning ways once more. The promising part? There's still no shortage of talent on this roster.

Darrell Jackson Jr. returned to form last week, stuffing the UM rushing attack; Tommy Castellanos has flashed playmaking ability from game to game; and the Desir twins along with Ousmane Kromah have injected youthful energy and optimism into the rotation.

We've seen glimpses of this team's ability to play elite football, but not since that Week 1 upset over Alabama has FSU delivered a complete, four-quarter performance on all three sides of the ball. Entering Saturday's matchup against Pitt, the Seminoles are searching to recapture that early-season spark, and they'll need to remind everyone just how capable this team can be when everything clicks.

Saturday's home contest affords the Seminoles a chance to steady themselves against a Pitt team that has struggled to find consistency from week to week. Unfortunately for defensive coordinator Tony White, the Panthers might have found an answer to their offensive woes in true freshman quarterback Mason Heitschsel.

The young signal-caller looked explosive in Pitt's 48–7 dismantling of Boston College last week. Through the air, Pitt poses a dangerous threat, especially with a relatively unknown variable under center who has quickly found confidence. The Panthers now boast the 15th-ranked passing offense in the nation (averaging 307 yards per game) and the 16th-ranked scoring offense (41 points per game).

The silver lining for Florida State's defense lies in Pitt's rushing attack, which ranks just 111th nationally at 116 yards per game. If Darrell Jackson Jr. and his cohort of defensive linemen can replicate their disruptive performance from last week's clash with Miami, the Seminoles could force the Panthers into a one-dimensional attack.

What Tony White's defense desperately needs, however, is to force turnovers and get off of the field on critical downs. Preventing prolonged drives has been a persistent issue in recent weeks, and that trend has to change if FSU wants to regain its early-season form.

Speaking of turnovers, the Florida State offense has had its own share of ball-handling woes. Over the last two games, Gus Malzahn's offense has coughed up the ball six times, and you don't need to be a football expert to know that's not a winning formula.

Behind Tommy Castellanos, the Seminoles have shown the capability to move the ball efficiently and rack up points, still ranking 2nd nationally in rushing offense and 7th in scoring. The issue hasn't been talent or scheme, though. It's been execution and discipline. Far too many empty possessions and self-inflicted mistakes have derailed drives that should've ended in points.

To make matters more challenging, Pitt's defense is no pushover. The Panthers are holding opponents to just 66.2 rushing yards per game while allowing 293.4 yards through the air. If Florida State can't find its rhythm early, this could turn into another long afternoon in Doak Campbell Stadium.

For a team searching for answers, Saturday's matchup feels less like a midseason tune-up and more like an inflection point. Mike Norvell and the Seminoles need to win this game. There's no other way around it. For all the talk of "upholding the standard" and this team's ability to "respond," this has to be the game where they put that on full display.

While an emphatic victory would be nice, something tells me this game will be too close for comfort for a majority of the contest. Nonetheless, I expect the Seminoles to be capable of pulling away in the later stages of the game and end their losing streak.

2025 Season Prediction Record: 2-3

Seminoles 34, Panthers 28

Tommy Mire (@TommyM3III)

After two straight gut punches, this is a week Florida State has to take personally. Pitt looked sharp behind its new signal-caller, Mason Heintschel, but Doak Campbell isn’t an environment he's seen before, and that crowd energy could rattle a freshman in his first road start. Expect Florida State to reestablish balance early with explosive runs and a few timely defensive plays.

The ‘Noles can get right in a much-needed win if the offense keeps the ball off the ground and out of the opposing defense's hands. At this point in time, this is the game that matters most if FSU wants to keep its postseason hopes alive.

This one could easily turn into a rout in Florida State’s favor, but a more conservative score ranges from 34-24 to 38-21.

2025 Season Prediction Record: 3-2

Seminoles 38, Panthers 21

Robert Malcom (@kwrobertm)

It's been an up-and-down season for the Seminoles in 2025, and with playoff hopes now largely out the window after two consecutive losses despite a 3-0 start, I do think FSU remains one of the better programs in the country.

What I think has killed this team is the poor ball security on offense. Miami scored 14 points off three turnovers last weekend, and UVA was a similar story. Had those turnovers not occurred, I think the Seminoles could easily be undefeated right now.

Pitt is coming off a major win and has all of the momentum going into the game. As both teams search for their fourth win of the season, expect a competitive game in Doak Saturday afternoon. I do think that FSU ultimately pulls through, although not in a blowout fashion.

2025 Season Prediction Record: 2-3

Seminoles 27, Panthers 24

Jackson Bakich (@jacksonbakich)

Florida State under Mike Norvell has had a tendency to lose in spurts. It was the case from 2020-22, and the trend could be surfacing yet again after two losses in a row against Virginia and Miami. However, I don’t see that to be the case this weekend.

Florida State will be focused and determined. The defense will not be facing a top-tier side like they have the last two weeks. The offense will have a bit more time to run its scheme. Look for the ‘Noles to declare a sign of life on Saturday.

2025 Season Prediction Record: 3-2

Seminoles 34, Panthers 17

CONSENSUS: Florida State (7-0)

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