How Does ESPN's BPI Project Georgia Tech's Road Matchup With Wake Forest?

Another big weekend is on the horizon for the Yellow Jackets as they close out the regular season against Wake Forest. Georgia Tech has a chance to potentially lock up the No. 7 seed in the ACC tournament after picking up a win against Miami and Stanford falling to Notre Dame earlier this week. If Georgia Tech can win on the road against Wake Forest and Stanford loses to Louisville, the No. 7 seed will be the Yellow Jackets.

Baye Ndongo has continued to be on a tear lately and has recorded a double-double in five of the last six games. Ndongo hit a season-high 29 points in a win last Saturday over NC State and has back-to-back 20-point outings. He is playing high-level basketball on both ends of the floor. Defensively, he is continuing to improve and showcasing his skill as a defender recording two or more blocks in four of his last six games. He has also increased his average to 13.6 PPG and 9.1 rebounds. Ndongo is a key catalyst for the Yellow Jackets and will be paramount if Georgia Tech is going to make a run in the ACC Tournament.

Lance Terry hit a career-high 31 points on senior night in his final home game with the Yellow Jackets and was scorching hot from three-point range knocking down six three-pointers on 55% shooting from beyond the arc. He had a number of memorable plays including size-up moves, alley-oop jams, and three-point shots. It was a magical night for Terry who showed his microwave ability once he established a rhythm.

31-piece, extra crispy 🍽️#StingEm 🐝 pic.twitter.com/dJGoeCbV4Z
— Georgia Tech Men’s Basketball (@GTMBB) March 6, 2025

Georgia Tech is back to where they have been accustomed to being for the vast majority of this season and that is an underdog on the road against Wake Forest. The Deacons are given a 73% chance of winning the game against the Yellow Jackets at home. They are currently the sixth team in the ACC and have locked up a top seed in the tournament after coming off an ugly loss to Duke on Monday. Wake Forest is led by senior Hunter Sallis who is averaging 18.2 PPG, 5.1 rebounds, and 2.8 assists. The Demon Deacons have had a tough stretch this season losing three of their last four games.

Another name to watch for Wake Forest will be Cameron Hildreth who is coming off his worst game of the season. Hildreth went 0-7 against Duke on Monday and finished with three rebounds and two assists. Prior to that, Hildreth scored 20 points in five of the last six games. He will definitely be looking to rebound on Saturday and finish the season strong.

An impressive stat for the Yellow Jackets this season is that they have five players averaging double-figures despite deploying so many different starting lineups. Any guy can get hot and get going from the field for the Yellow Jackets on any given night. We’ve seen this in the last few outings whether it is Terry, Ndongo, Nait George, Javian McCollum, or Duncan Powell. This has led to Georgia Tech playing some of its basketball at the right time in the season winning seven of the last nine games.

When you look at the matchup, both teams are pretty even in points per game, points against, field goal%, rebounds per game, assists per game, blocks per game, and steals per game with only a couple of percentage points separating the teams. I think the game will come down to whether the Yellow Jackets can avoid the scoring spells they sometimes go through in games, especially on the road. At one point in the win against Miami, the Yellow Jackets hit 12 consecutive baskets including 5-5 from three-point range which allowed them to take full control of the game. They will need a stretch in the game where they do something similar if they want to go on the road and pull off the upset.

But what is BPI? Here is how ESPN describes it:

"The Basketball Power Index (BPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of performance going forward. BPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Strength of Record (SOR) is a measure of team accomplishment based on how difficult a team's W-L record is to achieve. Game predictions account for opponent strength, pace of play, site, travel distance, day's rest and altitude, and are used to simulate the season 10,000 times to produce season projections. Numbers update daily."

Additional Links

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