EA Sports' 'College Football 26' Simulation Predicts Illinois vs. Indiana

Illinois heads to Indiana on Saturday night (6:30 p.m. CT, NBC) for what might be the biggest-ever game between the two teams. Fans are counting down the hours to kickoff, but in the meantime, we turned to EA Sports’ "College Football 26" to get a sneak preview of how things could unfold.

If you’ve followed along, you know our simulations have been eerily accurate so far, nailing the first three games of 2025. In our original season sim, the Hoosiers edged the Illini in a wild shootout. But did the updated version tell a different story? Let’s dive in and find out.

Four weeks in, one goal each time. 1-0 pic.twitter.com/lHSepIuIJA
— Illinois Football (@IlliniFootball) September 15, 2025

Week 4 simulation: No. 9 Illinois at No. 19 Indiana

First quarter

Aug 29, 2025; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini running back Kaden Feagin (3) runs the ball as Western Illinois Leathernecks defensive back Malini Ti'a (33) defends during the first half at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

Indiana opened the game by driving to midfield before stalling out on its first possession. The Illini quickly followed with a three-and-out of their own, and the Hoosiers again came empty on their next series. Illinois then found its rhythm, leaning heavily on the ground game as running backs Kaden Feagin and Aidan Laughery marched the offense downfield. Feagin capped the drive with a short touchdown run to put the Illini on the board. Indiana responded with a steady, methodical drive, but quarterback Fernando Mendoza was intercepted by Xavier Scott near the end of the quarter.

End of first: Illinois 7, Indiana 0

Second quarter

Indiana's Omar Cooper Jr. (3) during the Indiana versus Indiana State football game at Memorial Stadium on Friday, Sept. 12, 2025. | Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Illini wasted no time capitalizing on the turnover, as Luke Altmyer connected with receiver Collin Dixon for a quick-strike touchdown to open the quarter. On Indiana’s very next snap, Mendoza was picked off again – this time by Torrie Cox Jr. – to set up Illinois with prime field position. But the Illini couldn’t take full advantage, stalling out and settling for a field goal. The Hoosiers finally found life on the ground, piecing together a steady drive that ended with a short touchdown pass to Omar Cooper that put them on the board.

After Illinois went three-and-out, Indiana marched deep into Illini territory, only to settle for another field goal. The Illinois offense again sputtered, managing just one first down before punting it away late in the half. Indiana seized the momentum in the final two minutes, executing its hurry-up offense flawlessly and adding another field goal to cut further into the deficit heading into the break.

Halftime: Illinois 17, Indiana 13

Third quarter

Nov 16, 2024; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Michigan State Spartans linebacker Cal Haladay (27) tackles Illinois Fighting Illini tight end Tanner Arkin (85) during the first half at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

The second half opened with both offenses trading three-and-outs before Altmyer found his rhythm. The Illini quarterback spread the ball around on an impressive march down the field, capping the drive with a clutch fourth-and-goal touchdown strike to tight end Tanner Arkin. Indiana answered with a long, grinding possession, but Mendoza’s turnover woes continued as he threw his third interception of the day – this one hauled in by Xavier Scott for his second pick. Despite the gift of field position, Illinois failed to cash in, eventually punting the ball away as the third quarter came to a close.

End of third: Illinois 24, Indiana 13

Fourth quarter

Sep 28, 2024; University Park, Pennsylvania, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini kicker David Olano (24) lines up a field goal kick during the second quarter against the Penn State Nittany Lions at Beaver Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images | Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

Illinois’ defense delivered once again, sacking Mendoza on fourth down near midfield to return the ball to the offense. But the Illini couldn’t take advantage, going backwards before punting it right back to Indiana. After forcing a quick three-and-out, the Illini offense finally imposed its will in the trenches. The offensive line paved the way for a clock-chewing eight-minute drive that pushed deep into Hoosiers territory before stalling, setting up kicker David Olano for a field goal that extended the lead to 14. Indiana’s last attempt at a rally came up short on another fourth-down stop, and Altmyer closed it out in victory formation.

Final: Illinois 27, Indiana 13

Illinois on SI take

For Illinois, Saturday night is about more than just another win. It’s a chance to shake off the reputation of slow starts, seize control early and show a larger audience that they belong in the national spotlight. In the simulation, the Illini defense set the tone by forcing Indiana's Mendoza into critical mistakes – a formula that must carry over into real life. Illinois has already dominated the turnover battle this season, and if the defense can rattle Mendoza and create extra possessions, the odds swing heavily in the Illini's favor. A convincing road win against a 2024 CFP team wouldn’t just spark celebration in Champaign – it would also command national attention and send a message to opponents (and recruits): The Illini have joined the conversation of college football's elite.