Predicting Iowa's CFP Placement After Oregon Loss

The Iowa Hawkeyes had the attention, and even awe, of much of the nation ahead of their highly publicized matchup with the Oregon Ducks this past weekend in Iowa City. On a three-game win streak and having just received amongst the most votes of any unranked team for the AP Poll, it appeared that the Hawkeyes - an oft-cited "dark horse" for the College Football Playoff (CFP) - were in prime standing to turn their season-long goals into a reality.

Iowa Hawkeyes head coach Kirk Ferentz is pictured on the sidelines Nov. 8, 2025 before a Big Ten Football game against the Oregon Ducks at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City, Iowa. | Julia Hansen/Iowa City Press-Citizen / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Season-Defining Loss

That is, until the team fell short in unfortunately traditional fashion for the recent trends of longtime head coach Kirk Ferentz. After a grit-and-grind game through all four quarters, despite that being exactly the sort of trend that Iowa usually thrives on, the Hawkeyes fell short, 18-16, as a stand chock-full of black and gold helplessly looked on.

The loss, among many reactions, seemed to spur a disappointment across a fanbase that doesn't want to end up in the same middling boat that they sailed away in after last season. At 8-5, the 2024-25 Hawkeyes fell short of the program's standard. This year's time, while still 6-3 with plenty of time, seemingly had more expected out of them after securing the #20 spot in the newly released CFP rankings last week. While Iowa will likely fall from the list, their season is far from over.

THE FIRST CFP TOP 25 RANKINGS HAVE DROPPED‼️📊

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— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) November 5, 2025

It helps that the Hawkeyes, even in spite of their loss to Oregon, have continued to receive votes in the AP Poll this week. That may seem counterintuitive on the surface, but the bigger picture suggests a loss that isn't as bad as it seems for Iowa.

The Bright Side

All in all, the matchup with the Ducks represented an unranked team staying within two points of a nationally revered, top-10 squad. A loss is a loss, sure, but Iowa's persistent AP votes and previous CFP placement suggest merit that still exists in the program regardless of their loss.

As the latest iteration of the latter standing prepares to release this week, fans shouldn't be terribly bummed if - or, perhaps when - the Hawkeyes fully fall out of standing. With three more games left to play (two of which the Hawkeyes will likely be favored) last season's finish can still be eclipsed and, given a miraculous "win out" scenario, Iowa could even find themselves back on CFP ladder by the time everything is said and done.

The loss to Oregon stings, no doubt, but with almost a month of football still left to play, the black and gold are far from finished when it comes to whatever mark they'll leave on the 2025-26 season.

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