ESPN Matchup Predictor Forecasts Kansas vs Baylor Basketball Matchup

Kansas and Baylor are one day away from tipping off each other's fifth conference game of the season. The contest will be played inside Allen Fieldhouse, not long after Tuesday's emphatic blowout win over previously undefeated and second-ranked Iowa State.

The Jayhawks have struggled away from home, falling to UCF and West Virginia on the road, but have continued to be elite in the Phog. Now, Scott Drew and Baylor are heading to Lawrence, where the Bears have pulled off a victory just once in 21 tries in the series history.

The logical pick is clearly Kansas, but what does the ESPN Matchup Predictor think? Here are what the odds say entering the contest.

Baylor at Kansas: ESPN Matchup Predictor Gives Prediction

As of Thursday, KU is listed as the projected winner, with nearly a four-fifths chance to come out victorious. The odds for Baylor are not too favorable at the moment.

Jan 13, 2026; Lawrence, Kansas, USA; Kansas Jayhawks guard Darryn Peterson (22) reacts during the second half against the Iowa State Cyclones at Allen Fieldhouse. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images | Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

ESPN Matchup Predictor Chances at Victory: Kansas 77.5%, Baylor 22.5%.

With a 77.5% chance to win, things are looking pretty good for the Jayhawks. The betting lines have yet to come out, but they should be in the Kansas -6.5 range.

Kansas On SI's Take

It is not surprising that KU is predicted to win Friday night. The Bears have not fared well in Allen Fieldhouse, aside from one victory during the COVID-19-shortened season in 2020. Even Baylor's best teams have come into the Phog and failed to leave with a win.

Kansas is in a strong position heading into this matchup after playing its most complete game of the campaign earlier this week. The Jayhawks dismantled the No. 2 defense in the country, scoring 84 points against the Cyclones while knocking down 12 threes.

Darryn Peterson has now played all four Big 12 games and has yet to appear on the Big 12 availability report. While he has still not finished a full game, the Jayhawks can count on around 25 to 30 minutes from him until further notice.

Meanwhile, Baylor has yet to secure a marquee victory, dropping its first three conference games before defeating Oklahoma State on Tuesday. This would be a perfect opportunity for the Bears to change that, but for Drew and Co., the odds are stacked against them in the toughest environment in the country. We will see how it plays out, but for now, Kansas looks like a very safe pick.